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What about governors who were very bad fits for their states? Winthrop Rockefeller’s a glaring example. A pro-civil rights Republican—and a literal Rockefeller—who got elected in 1969s Arkansas.

I have already voted (early) for the Greens in Germany, although I haven't given much thought to who would have voted in other countries.

Probably some parties that would end up in the Greens-EFA or at least S&D groups.

How is this thread 4 pages?

This story seems to be "NFL player gives speech and says things that some people don't like"

9% inflation

Thankfully, that isn’t a thing here.

[There hasn’t been some massive recession or world war.]

Another big issue with polling is it suggests a pretty massive re-alignment despite not all that much changing since 2020; the candidates are the same and general messaging is simillar from both sides. There hasn’t been some massive recession or world war.

Elections that prompt large re-alignments have unique circumstances from previous elections like the recession + Obama in 2008 or going from Romney —> Trump in 2016.

Pretty sure some people would disagree with that or would ask if you were living under a rock.

Sure... it might not be a technical world war. We haven't had a world war since the 1940s. But we've had the first territorial war on European soil since the 1940s and the bloodiest conflict to ever take place in Israel.

And lots of people would disagree with that recession. Things haven't been really great. It's not Great Depression-tier of recession. But we've had economic hardship since basically covid pandemic broke out. And at the end purchasing power of people matters when evaluating presidents in the USA traditionally.

The world is dramatically changing over a short period of time, we might not all realize it. But AI, social media, fake news, all weren't even a thing 20 years ago. The whole mood, terms like woke and level of political campaigning has changed dramatically. The world is changing faster than people realize. Sure, lots of these things were already around in 2020 but in a slightly longer timescale, things have changed quite a lot. This isn't 2004 anymore.

I don't remember this much backlash from media (social media or broadcast/news media) when the Chiefs had multiple domestic abusers (Frank Clark, Tyreek Hill) on their roster.

getting 4 pages of recreational outrage over domestic violence? impossible
getting 4 pages of recreational outrage over a commencement speech at a college few had heard of before this story and most coulldn't name now? easy

LOL

https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1792438047058890987

Better than the Charles Michel tweet, I guess. It's done by the spokesperson of the State Department, not Biden himself. "Official condolescences" sounds like the necessary bare minimum. And the status of human rights in Iran are alluded to.

Because his polling is a little too good for being the polarizing, obnoxious nightmare he is.

which is again wishful thinking and purely based on your personal convictions.

Despite, still half of the country basically still would hate him, even if he wins, even if he wins by 55-45, 45% still hates him - including all the people who vote third party or don't care enough/refuse to turn out.

I know the judge said he doesn't want deliberations being disrupted by the long weekend, so if the defense rests their case either today or tomorrow, will court be recessed for the rest of the week?

After the charge conference, yes, summations will commence next Tues. whether they finish the charge conference tomorrow or Thursday.

Can Dole win back Vermont in 1996?

PurpleHeartRepublican (R-PA): I think it's clear that Vermont voting for the Southerner Clinton over good Northeastern Republican George H.W. Bush was a fluke. Polling this year is oversampling Democrats. Dole will win back Vermont by a few points.

BackToTheFarm (R-NE): I have a good feeling about Republicans this election cycle, I think people will look past Gingrich and keep in mind Clinton's womanizing. He's just a hick who got elected President, like Carter. Stories like Jennifer Flowers and Whitewater are definitely going to sink Democrats in some places and I feel that Olympia Snowe can win on a low-tax message and pull Dole over the top perhaps even in Maine. Suburban women who put Rs on the top in 1994 will pull the lever again for Republicans in 1996. Soccer moms! Anyway, Deep South Democrats don't get re-elected President, didn't we learn anything from 1980?

WeGotDiamonds (D-AR): I look forward to you underestimating our commander in chief! He'll crush Dole in November! Call him a hick all you want. As a hick I am proud of Willy and he'll win the key swing states in November.

PurpleHeartRepublican (R-PA): Bill and Hillary aren't the best leaders for our great country, if you ask me. And I know an Arkansas Democrat will love Bill and Hillary. But the median swing voter will ask questions, about Whitewater, about whether they can trust a man of this slick character, and probably they will say, I'll go for Dole instead. He's an earnest man needed for our times. And he'll also win Vermont. He's got the support of Senator Jeffords after all.

HenryRossStudioPierrot (I-CA): Nah. Vermont is trending Dem and immigration isn't something people care about in the Green Mountain State. It's not as competitive as California is...I think right now I see California flipping narrowly, because Perot voters will support Dole and put him narrowly on top over Clinton there.

RainbowCoalition (D-MI): Vermont is very very white. It's whiter than the white bread I just bought. Practically no African-American voters there. So I can't say. It's not like New York, Illinois, or Michigan.

Hillary4President2000 (D-FL): Bill and Hillary will win Vermont easily, as they have the support of Governor Dean, Senator Sanders, and trends going back decades. Seeing you think that Vermont will flip back is funny. I hope you continue to think so on Election Day. Face it, it's not the 1980s, and Reagan isn't on the ballot anymore. Even if he was you'd have lost 1992.

MarjoliesDidNothingWrong (O-PA): As a suburban woman who voted for Specter in 1992 and a strong supporter of balanced budgets and good schools I have to say you don't understand. Tom Ridge is a good governor but Gingrich needs a check on his power and Dole just isn't going to be tough enough. Slick Willy it is. And Vermont will vote alongside me.

Proposition187ForLife (R-CA): Illegal immigration is a serious issue even in Vermont. Most illegal immigrants aren't like Apu. They increase our school classroom sizes and take out more than they put in. Vermont will vote for Dole.