German Elections & Politics

[Oryxslayer]

Certainly looks like the number of governments available for Hesse depends on the MOE. Black-Green or Black-Red Grand Coalitions might be viable depending on what poll you trust. R2G also might be viable even if the politicians don't want it. The only govts that seem permanently available are the three party ones: Stoplight, Jamaica, and Black-Red-Yellow - if that ones even politically viable.

[pilskonzept]

election.de is catching up on that green and purple thing.



The Valley of the Clueless is well known, but apparently a thing of the past. Now spot the Hamburg, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and West Berlin commuter belts.

[palandio]

[...]
The Valley of the Clueless is well known, but apparently a thing of the past. Now spot the Hamburg, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and West Berlin commuter belts.

There still is a strong correspondence between the "Valley of the Clueless" and the safe and likely AfD constituencies.

And I know where Hamburg, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and West Berlin are, but I cannot see what makes their commuter belts special. Please explain.

[Lord Halifax]

Could you explain what the "Valley of the Clueless" is for us uninitiated?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Could you explain what the "Valley of the Clueless" is for us uninitiated?

It refers to the broadcasting area of West German TV and radio.
West German television and radio channels could be received in most areas of the GDR, but not in Saxony.
That eventually led to the Saxons remaining uniformed about the political machinations of their regime and lacking in knowledge of the advantages of democracy in the West.

[Ethelberth]

The cradle of Greens getting finally direct seat for them (the Slavic agricultural seat in Eastern Hannover).

[pilskonzept]

[...]
The Valley of the Clueless is well known, but apparently a thing of the past. Now spot the Hamburg, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and West Berlin commuter belts.

There still is a strong correspondence between the "Valley of the Clueless" and the safe and likely AfD constituencies.

And I know where Hamburg, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and West Berlin are, but I cannot see what makes their commuter belts special. Please explain.

Sorry, I was a bit unclear. The parts of the East where daily commutes to the West are possible and worth the effort. The AfD heartland is what it is, but the pattern of expansion into Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia tell another (if related) story.

[parochial boy]

The cradle of Greens getting finally direct seat for them (the Slavic agricultural seat in Eastern Hannover).

The Lüneburg seat? I was presuming that was down to that was down to Lüneburg itself being failrly lefty?

And is this map largely based on uniform swing - in which case given the flux going on, I wouldn't necessarily have though applying uniform swing would be especially meaningful if you're getting a large scale change in how people vote.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The cradle of Greens getting finally direct seat for them (the Slavic agricultural seat in Eastern Hannover).

The Lüneburg seat? I was presuming that was down to that was down to Lüneburg itself being failrly lefty?

And is this map largely based on uniform - in which case given the flux going on, I wouldn't necessarily applying uniform swing to be especially meaningful if you'r getting a large scale change in how people vote.

Lüneburg, which has only 75,000 inhabitants, has quite a big university (Leuphana University) with pretty left-wing students. But I agree, the district as a whole won't vote Green.

[Ethelberth]

The area has nuclear waste site in Gorleben. The so-called Wendland has list of Green politicians since 80ties, at least two MEPs , most recently Rebecca Harms.

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C3%BCrgerinitiative_Umweltschutz_L%C3%BCchow-Dannenberg
 

[palandio]

[...]
The Valley of the Clueless is well known, but apparently a thing of the past. Now spot the Hamburg, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and West Berlin commuter belts.

There still is a strong correspondence between the "Valley of the Clueless" and the safe and likely AfD constituencies.

And I know where Hamburg, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and West Berlin are, but I cannot see what makes their commuter belts special. Please explain.

Sorry, I was a bit unclear. The parts of the East where daily commutes to the West are possible and worth the effort. The AfD heartland is what it is, but the pattern of expansion into Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia tell another (if related) story.

Thank you, that makes sense. I would add that the "Valley of the Clueless" was caused mostly by geographic distance from the West (plus some minor topographical obstacles) and therefore cannot be that easily distinguished from the area where a daily commute to the West doesn't make sense. The overlap is very high.

By the way the Eastern German counties with the lowest unemployment are Sonneberg and Hildburghausen in the Coburg commuter belt.

Regarding the "Valley of the Clueless" it has turned out that the Stasi (Eastern German internal secret service) did studies on the effect of the reception of Western television in the 80s. And one of the results was that Western information and entertainment made people happier, more content, more trustful and more ready to tolerate the regime.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

[mvd10]

For a short moment I though CDU/CSU was at 21%, didn't notice the CSU lol.

[Tender Branson]

There's one final poll for the Sunday Hessen state election by ZDF:

CDU stops their fall and Greens/SPD battling for 2nd place.

40% of voters are still undecided about their vote choice a few days before the election ...

CDU-Greens (= government) currently not possible (48-48), but CDU-Greens-FDP would be.

[rob in cal]

  So RRG is right on the edge for a landtag majority.

[Oryxslayer]

  So RRG is right on the edge for a landtag majority.

Same with Union-Greens or Union-SPD. There are a lot of possible govts here within the MOE, like I said above.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Germany 2018:
The chancellor candidates of the three biggest parties could be a gay man, a lesbian woman and a Muslim...
If only that the Führer knew! 😝

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Hessen state election tomorrow:

28.0% CDU (-10.3%)
21.1% Greens (+10.0%)
20.5% SPD (-10.2%)
11.6% AfD (+7.5%)
  8.4% FDP (+3.4%)
  7.1% Left (+1.9%)
  3.3% Others (-2.3%)

Turnout: 71.4% (which is -1.8% compared with 2013, but back then the state election was held together with the federal election, leading to higher turnout. Compared with the 2009 state election, turnout would be +10.4%)

Constitutional changes will all be approved.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Constitutional changes will all be approved.

What amendment do you think will get the highest percentage, which the lowest?
How many Hessians will vote for the retention of the death penalty?

[Tender Branson]

Constitutional changes will all be approved.

What amendment do you think will get the highest percentage, which the lowest?
How many Hessians will vote for the retention of the death penalty?

I think almost all of them will pass with between 70% and 90% of the vote, even the death penalty and European commitment, which should probably the "closest" ones. Support for keeping the death penalty in the state constitution is probably only at around 20-25%, while opposition to European commitment is probably around 30%. So, I go with European commitment as the one with the lowest percentage, followed by the death penalty. Full gender equality and children's rights should receive the highest percentages (~90%).

[Tender Branson]

Polls for the Hessen state election are now open and close again at 6pm.

PS: the results for the 15 constitutional referendums won't be released today (according to the live-ticker below).

https://www.hessenschau.de/politik/wahlen/landtagswahl-2018/landtagswahl-live--die-wahl-hat-begonnen-,ltw18-liveticker-100.html

[President Johnson]

My prediction for Hesse:

CDU: 28.2%
SPD: 22.5%
Greens: 18.9%
AfD: 11.8%
Left: 8.0%
FDP: 7.1%

[Beezer]

I hope and pray Merkel pulls a Schröder and announces fresh elections. With a new CDU leader though.

[RedPrometheus]

I hope and pray Merkel pulls a Schröder and announces fresh elections. With a new CDU leader though.

That will never happen.

[RedPrometheus]

My prediction for Hesse:

CDU: 28.2%
SPD: 22.5%
Greens: 18.9%
AfD: 11.8%
Left: 8.0%
FDP: 7.1%

I also think that the SPD will be ahead of the greens in the end. I am almost as excited for the exit polls as I was on the Sunday of the federal election 😅