German Elections & Politics

[Oryxslayer]

Yesterday I discussed with my fellow Social Democrats the possibility that we may end up with a new election in spring 2018, if no coalition agreement can be reached. Jamaica is anything but certain, and the SPD members won't vote for a grand coalition again. It may not be representative, but all fellows I know from my party said they would vote against another grand coalition no matter what. Including those who voted in favor four years ago (like myself).

I hate to hop in unannounced, but I have been following the thread and every post for a few months now, so when I say that this was my thought since the very beginning, I really mean it. The SPD base doesn't want another Grand Coalition, they despise Merkel as shown by a previous poll more then every other Non-AFD party. I also seem to remember from a couple of months ago (after schultzmentum was dead) that he had talked about not wanting another Grand Coalition, or if it was going to happen, demanding far more then in 2013.

My views since Schultz become leader is that we were heading for Black/Yellow, and now they are that we are heading for Jamaica. Merkel will pull the greens and FDP in for talks, and predictably they will break down over some issue between the CSU and the Greens. Then Merkel will go to Schultz, and both leaders will understand that neither quite want another grand coalition. Schultz will end up appeasing the base by breaking off talks, and then Merkel will return to Jamaica armed with the "Do it in the name of Stability" argument.

Or perhaps Jamaica will work on the first pass. Either way, thats the end destination.

[Oryxslayer]

What's going to happen for the Cabinet? Will Lindner get the foreign department and the Greens get the finance minister?

More likely the other way around.

[Oryxslayer]

Berlin (DPA) -- Talks to form the so-called "Jamaica" coalition government in Germany have failed, a spokesman for the Free Democrats (FDP) party says.

So what does everyone think happens next?

My theory before the election was that talks would fail. Then Merkel would try to convince the SPD out of a need to show that she tried all other options, which will inevitably fail. She will then head back to Jamaica and say "look we failed before, but you are the only hope for stable government," and get them to work.

[Oryxslayer]

Wuh oh. New elections?

Probably a CDU/SPD grand coalition or a CDU Minority.

I will be a cold day in hell before Germany gets a minority government...

[Oryxslayer]

Germany's Merkel Prefers New Elections Over Minority Government

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-20/germany-s-merkel-prefers-new-elections-over-minority-government-ja8f0ea5

Thats that I suppose, I guess we are getting new elections. However, what exactly is Merkel's goal here? Reduce the AfD vote to boost her numbers for a future coalition of CDU/CSU +FDP or Greens? Hope the voters punish one of FDP/Greens, and hope the numbers allow for a coalition woth the suvivor? Simply have a rehash of results that comfirms to the Jamaica partners that they are the only option?

[Oryxslayer]

Thats that I suppose, I guess we are getting new elections.

No, she can't actually call them. Right now this is just her expressing a public preference.

yeah, but with Merkel and Schultz putting the CDU/CSU and SPD towards new elections, it practically makes it inevitable. There will be the three ballots, and then the President will call for new elections after Merkel becomes a temporary minority custodian.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, the SPD really have a deathwish apparently. Entering another Grand Coalition after getting their worst result ever and then constantly publicly denying another grand coalition will only prove their opponents claim that the two big parties are one and the same. On the other hand, some of these demands by the SPD look improbable with the CSU, so perhaps SPD really don't want another Grand Coalition, yet need the public perception of Merkel exhausting all options before new elections...

[Oryxslayer]

Not that SPD had much option, given that the FDP proved that they are incapable of acting like adults.

Nah they had another option - refuse coalition and force a new election where the FDP (among others) would end up getting punished. Hell the talks still could fail, or they could simply be a front designed to fail for Merkel to have the legitimacy to call a new election or bring the FDP back to the table.

[Oryxslayer]

If the SPD was smart they would let the CDU/CSU form a minority government and then agree to support the budget if it includes certain demands of theirs.  In some ways a minority even if it won't last the full four years is probably best for each of the parties.  Where the CDU/CSU wants to turn rightward they have the FDP and AfD while where they want to turn leftward they have the SPD, Greens, and Die Linke so it might just mean modifying part of their platform which Merkel seems adapt at doing.

What is this exotic thing called a minority government? Does it have 50% + 1?  Does it last the entire term? Is it stable? Is it even German?

/s

[Oryxslayer]

If the SPD was smart they would let the CDU/CSU form a minority government and then agree to support the budget if it includes certain demands of theirs.  In some ways a minority even if it won't last the full four years is probably best for each of the parties.  Where the CDU/CSU wants to turn rightward they have the FDP and AfD while where they want to turn leftward they have the SPD, Greens, and Die Linke so it might just mean modifying part of their platform which Merkel seems adapt at doing.

What is this exotic thing called a minority government? Does it have 50% + 1?  Does it last the entire term? Is it stable? Is it even German?

/s

Minority government is simply a government that has less than 50% of the seats so it can be a single party with less than 50% of the seats or a coalition that has under 50% of the seats.

I was poking fun at the fact that Germany has never had a minority government, never has appeared to significantly consider the idea of a minority government, and currently never will consider it. It's just not part of the German political psyche. It is more likely we get new elections than Merkel break years of political tradition and consider an unstable minority government.

[Oryxslayer]

Other state leaders like Berlin Mayor Michael Müller also expressed concern on a grand coalition. I think in the end, the base will vote down any coalition agreement, especially since the negotiation results are pretty weak (unlike in 2013). I'll also vote against it and don't know many people in my party here at the base that are in favor of a grand coalition.

I disagree completly - I am 100% certain, that the members will vote for the "grand" coalition.

What's the composition of the membership like? A lot of young SPD friends on Facebook I have have set their profile pics to the "GegenGroKo" - how relevant will they be? Or is their younger cohort considerably to the left of the party as a whole

The average is 61 or 62 And I think the older members are still traumatized by 16 years opposition during Helmut Kohl.

And four years ago most of the young members were against the grand coalition too and a very large majority voted for the coalition nevertheless.

The difference now is that the party has just experienced it's lowest vote share ever. There is a reasonable chance that the SPD will join the ranks of the Greens, FDP, and AfD as secondary but not minor parties. Even if this fate doesn't come to pass, they will 100% miss the chance to take advantage of the expected Merkel retirement next election.

Those is the facts. It's well known, and it is why the opposition to a new coalition is coming from more than just the youth. It is also why I personally think it will fail, but thats just my opinion.

[Oryxslayer]

If the GroKo fails, does this mean another election in 2018?

I think a minority government would be more likely, especially as polls haven't hugely changed since last time around.

There would be an immediate leadership challenge in the SPD though, and possibly Merkel herself will be turfed.

Haha no. Germany does not do minority governments. Merkel has two choices. She either A -  returns to Jamaica now effectively saying "you are our last hope." Of B - we get another election that at least right now, probably will return similar totals to the bundestag and begins Jamaica negotiations from the beginning. 

[Oryxslayer]

Is the FDP's decline in the polls rooted in their rejection of the Jamaican Coalition? Regardless, seeing DL ahead of that garbage can of a political party is quite heartening.

Unfortunately for this viewpoint it looks like INSA is a regular outlier in regards to DL.

In order to get a accurate picture of how opinions have changed since October, I am going to provide several polling averages (all lifted from Wikipedia). The first will be all polls only conducted in January (two INSA, two Forsa, one Emnid, and one dimap), the second will be the same grouping only the most recent poll for INSA and Forsa, the third will be all polls in the past month - since Dec 15 (five INSA, three Forsa, three Emnid, and one each of YouGov, Dimap, and GMS), and the fourth will use the same goruping as the third with the most recent poll. This comes out to:

Method	CDU/CSU	SPD	AfD	FDP	Linke	Greens	Others
Method 1	32.8	20	12.4	9	9.8	11	5
Method 2	32.9	20	12.8	9	9.6	11	4.7
Method 3	32.8	20.1	12.7	9	10	10.8	4.6
Method 4	32.8	20.2	13	8.9	9.8	10.8	4.5

                 

So overall, not a huge change. Perhaps things have changed wildly in the short term, with the reintroduction of another Grand Coalition, and things will change rapidly if another election is called. However, the recent changes since the election appear to be a small slide in SPD support, a small gain of AfD support, a comparatively big drop in FDP support, and a comparatively large rise in Green support. In is easy to assume that the changes in the Green and FDP vote share are the result of the failed Jamaica talks (and FDP pulling out), so perhaps SPD is in for a wild ride in their numbers ahead...

[Oryxslayer]

If the GroKo fails, does this mean another election in 2018?

I think a minority government would be more likely, especially as polls haven't hugely changed since last time around.

There would be an immediate leadership challenge in the SPD though, and possibly Merkel herself will be turfed.

Haha no. Germany does not do minority governments. Merkel has two choices. She either A -  returns to Jamaica now effectively saying "you are our last hope." Of B - we get another election that at least right now, probably will return similar totals to the bundestag and begins Jamaica negotiations from the beginning. 

Germany historically doesn't do minorities by convention, but conventions can change out of necessity. There's been a lot more talk of minority governments from the ptb than is the norm.

Yeah, all this "country/party x will NEVER do y" stuff is only valid until they do. No taboo or norm lasts forever. If the circumstances change enough the previously unthinkable becomes possible.

Oh I agree, circumstances can change. The situation however is not at the point where they will though.

 First off, Merkel likes her stability in government, it lends her greater freedom when working with Europe. A stable coalition lends her greater legitimacy in the eyes of the world, and has arguably made her the international figure that she is today. That goes away under a minority government, Merkel now would need to give a lot more attention to Berlin that she wants.

Secondly, lets take a step back and see what would happen if Merkel went for minority. Any deals with the AfD on bills are out of the question - right now they are political taboo and if they were willing to work with the govt, we would be looking at a CDU/AfD/FDP govt right now. They may end up voting for a govt bill once in a while, but that would be on their own preference, not to prop up the CDU. The AfD would likely end up showed aside like the Sweden Democrats furthur north. So, with that out of the way, Merkel bow needs to form a minority government. She probably pulls in one of the FDP/Greens to form a minority with a seat count north of 40%. But then what? Any bill passed would require the support of either the Greens/FDP or the SPD - their two current coalition partners. If Merkel is going to depend on one of those in a minority situation no matter what, would it be better to just form a govt eith them? They are still probably going to get punished for working with Merkel, even if they are outside the govt, but they won't have any influence on policy or government positions.

Yes a minority is possible, but the idea of the majority is such a key part of German political psyche that it will take more than two failed negotiations for it to fall. In my view there will be new elections if the SPD voters reject the agreement, and if negotiations fail following that election, than a minority could be in the cards.

[Oryxslayer]

Poll in Question:

Data  (change since last Forza poll) [change since election rounded]

CDU/CSU: 34 (+1) [+1]
SPD: 18 (-2) [-2.5]
AfD: 12 (+1) [-.5]
Greens: 12 (=) [+3]
Linke: 10 (+1) [+1]
FDP: 8 (-1) [-3]

So, SPD are in for a wild ride in their numbers, just like the Greens and the FDP after the coalition talks. Support seems to be flowing to the Union and the minor Left parties, which is what you would expect.

Frankly, I don't see how the SPD can accept the coalition with these numbers. A two point drop, which is 10% of their 2017 vote mind you, in one week due to the current talks. Accepting the Grand Coalition will probably send the SPD into the ~10% moshpit with the rest of the non-Union parties. if they know whats good for them, they have to reject the deal.

[Oryxslayer]

Supposing Groko fails and antipathy to a minotity government leads to another eletion this year. Is there any real chanece the results would lead to a situation that makes it any easier to form a coalition.

I mean, I can see some consolidation around the CDU, and FDP in particular getting punished in such as event (and potentially the SPD as well, they seem to be a in a lose-lose position right now). But how do you ever get over the line without either a grand coalition or a three party one?

Only way out is for enough voters to vote for CDU/CSU and FDP to get a majority of seats.  I have no idea where the votes will come from for this since Greens AfD and Linke will not fall below the 5% threshold.

Reaching a Black-Yellow majority is currently farther away than it was on election day in Sept. 2017, mostly due the FDP taking a dip in the polls after they pulled out of the Jamaica talks (or rather the way they pulled out of it).

Yeah, with the greens on the Rise, Black-Green is the obvious solution to the impasse - if new elections do occur. As said, they are currently close to a majority, and once it becomes the advertised government, they might pick up more FDP/SPD voters to get a majority.

One thing that I have been thinking about is what happens if (when?) the deal is rejected by the SPD. If so, then the FDP really doesn't want new elections. They are dropping in the polls, and once black-green starts up, they will probably drop even further. I mean, their voters were happy to give the party 0 seats in 2013 and flip to the CDU. I don't see such a stark scenario, but there will be a fall off. If so, then it may be in the FDPs interest to return to the Jamaica idea, in order to stave off losing seats...

[Oryxslayer]

SPD Party conference is Tomorrow...any locals have any idea how that will go? Reject or Pass?

Also, does anyone have anything resembling a "whip count?" I know Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt have advised rejection, Brandenburg and Hamburg have encouraged acceptance, and I believe North-Rhine Westphalia has not stated anything. Is there a full list, or is that it?

[Oryxslayer]

SPD Party conference is Tomorrow...any locals have any idea how that will go? Reject or Pass?

Also, does anyone have anything resembling a "whip count?" I know Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt have advised rejection, Brandenburg and Hamburg have encouraged acceptance, and I believe North-Rhine Westphalia has not stated anything. Is there a full list, or is that it?

Here is a list, including the number of delegates from each state:

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/groko-spd-sonderparteitag-landesverbaende-1.3832477

Ooo Thanks!

[Oryxslayer]

I've been following the special party convention, and I'm concluding from the emotional speeches that 80% will approve of beginning the coalition talks.

A little under 1/6th of the delegates are young, and considering that groups strong opposition to a renewed grand Coalition, the ceiling for acceptance is probably a little lower.

Strange I got a different take from the speeches. Schultz sounded a tiny bit desperate, and the speeches have been mixed in their support/opposition. I'm also leaning towards agreement right now, but not by such a high margin.

[Oryxslayer]

It's a yes.

362 yes
279 no

Only 56% approve...unless the SPD are able to get more at the table during the actual agreement, I don't see how this will be accepted when put to the more skeptical membership vote. But I didn't see how the party could accept it at the conference when their polls were slipping simply by agreeing to it, and they ended up finding the votes. So perhaps we will see the party dance their way to destruction.

[Oryxslayer]

So, let me get this straight:

* Merkel/CDU-CSU was expected to win easily, but then had a very mediocre (= bad) election result and got humiliated.

* She then limped along to talk with the FDP and Greens, which failed utterly.

* The SPD had a chance to go into opposition and rebuild and let Merkel "auflaufen" (= in English something like "let herself disassemble along the way").

* Instead, the SPD chose to betray voters and start talks with her and contrary to Merkel it's now themselves who are aufgelaufen (=> hitting the wall at full speed in this split vote).

How stupid is the SPD ?

Schulz comes from a political culture (the EU) where he benefited greatly from his GroKo with the EPP, and he never had to look over his shoulder electorally. Also, I think his speech indicated that it was only to pursue the talks.

I personally, despite not wanting the GroKo, understand the political logic behind it, especially after what one of the German posters said on here about the average age of the SPD rank and file.

The thing with constant Grand Coalitions is that they could turn into political incest (see Austria) , or in the case of Germany - political BDSM - and that people/parties will start to hate each other after a long time together.

So, it is refreshing to have another government option here and then, even if it involves the FPÖ or the AfD. Here is where I don't understand the Germans and their desire for "keeping the Far Right out of office no matter what". It seems the Germans are the Vulcans of Europe ("do not allow any emotions and kill any political incorrectness immediately because it would be a sign of instability"). On the other hand, Austrians have no such "Vulcan" reservations.

Yes, what could possibly make the Germans hesitant about the Far Right?

Yeah, I know ... WW2.

But what is better ?

* letting the AfD govern together with the CDU/CSU, a coalition in which the conservatives have for example 36% and the AfD 12% and would therefore get just a quarter of power and cabinet posts ? And let them make mistakes and probably fail and drop to 5% after a few years ?

* excluding them forever and let them grow ... and grow ... and grow, until they cannot be ignored anymore ?

The main problem with this is the AfD doesn't even want a Merkel coalition, even if it was a possibility rather then political taboo. Their whole stick, aside from the anti-migrant anti-EU part, is being strong anti-Merkel. They don't want a coalition with the "cooperationist" CDU. Even if these bridges could be passed, they would still need the FDP on board to cross 50%.

No, the options right now are:

Grand Coalition (shudder)
Jamaica, or Black/Green in the event of new elections

[Oryxslayer]

Forsa poll:

Poll in Question:

Data  (change since last Forza poll) [change since election rounded]

CDU/CSU: 34 (+1) [+1]
SPD: 18 (-2) [-2.5]
AfD: 12 (+1) [-.5]
Greens: 12 (=) [+3]
Linke: 10 (+1) [+1]
FDP: 8 (-1) [-3]

^ Previous Forza poll. Change in this new poll is -1 for SPD, +1 for AfD and Linke.

[Oryxslayer]

Clickable new map of the 2017 federal election results by town (there are 11.000):

https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/gemeindekarte-bundestagswahl-2017

I think this is the first map of its kind.

White = no inhabitants.

Also do not forget the +/- zoom sign at the bottom right, to show results for small towns.

I don't like how they don't carve up the cities, leaving areas like Koln, Berlin, Munich, and Dresden as big Black blobs rather than detailed maps. But yes, it is certainly nice to see a map like this.

[/quote]

I still have no clue why the SPD has chosen the topic of family reunification as their hill to die on during these negotiations. Do they honestly think this is how they can galvanize or regain blue collar voters?

It appears the SPD are trying to push socially left ideas that in many other counties would appeal to the youth...except that group is 1 - more loyal to Greens/Linke than the SPD, and 2 - fundamentally opposed to Grand Coalition V2.0 and they will always be against it, no matter how far left the agreement moves.

[Oryxslayer]

The GRAND Coalition has no majority anymore ... (47.5% vs. 48.5%):

Presently an outlier.

Last Forza poll was 33 18 13 9 9 13
Last Infratest was 33 18 14 10 11 11
Last Emnid Poll was 33 20 13 9 10 11
Last Forschungsgruppe was 31 19 14 7 11 14
Last YouGov (a few weeks) was 34 19 14 8 11 10   

All that said, its certainly possible we start seeing lower CDU numbers, in this poll they think the FDP has recovered from their spiral. Every other poll, even the Forshungsgruppe one that also has a slightly lower CDU count still has the FDP declining - can our German posters comment if anything has changed?

[Oryxslayer]

CDU are really pushovers, giving the Foreign, Finance, and Justice ministries to the SPD who are in a bigger pickle than they are...laughing stock.

Shame they didn't keep the Finance ministry away from the hands of Scholz the clown

More like the SPD recognize that at least for the moment, a coalition deal is political seppuku. They probably demanded all these high up ministries to at least ensure that the sacrifice was not in vain.