German Elections & Politics

[President Johnson]

CDU/CSU ... worst result since 2013 and 6 points below where they were 2 months ago.

Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.

Good.

Merkel and CDU/CSU deserve all their recent troubles and collapsing poll numbers.

After all, Merkel was elected by the German citizens/voters to serve their interests and not the interests of the millions of migrants, which Rabenmutti now suddenly wants to crowd into the country.

The problem with that is, that only populists are benefit from that. The least thing I want to have after 2017 (and in the states) is another grand coalition. That only weackens democracy. But the rise of right-wing populists make it impossible for other coalitions to emerge. Just look at Austria, they have a grand coalition all the time.

[President Johnson]

Yep, polls are open. Just voted SPD.

[President Johnson]

Yes, turnout is high in Baden Württemberg. Especially in larger cities. This is good news for the governing Green-Red-Coalition.

[President Johnson]

If the current trends hold, then my new updated turnout projections for today are:

75% Rheinland-Pfalz (+13%)
70% Baden-Württemberg (+4%)
56% Sachsen-Anhalt (+5%)

Damn ... Easterners, get your lazy asses up and go voting !

Turnouts are always low in the east. One reason why right-wingers are so strong.

[President Johnson]

First results expected to come in in two hours

[President Johnson]

I'll ask again but because no one answered. What does the FDP stand for now? Are they still libertarian? Did they move back to being left liberals? Why did they come back in the polls to win seats?

They're socialy liberal (pro gay marriage, pro european,...) but economicly liberatarian. They're certainly not left liberal.

[President Johnson]

Would Kretschmann be a good candidate for Chancellor for a common front Greens/SPD to defeat Merkel?

Not gonna happen.

The Greens will hold a primary-like contest this fall to determine a female and a male lead candidate for the 2017 Bundestag election. Kretschmann is most likely not gonna run though. Candidates so far are the Bundestag caucus leaders Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Anton Hofreiter, Schleswig-Holstein deputy premier Robert Habeck, and (as of now unofficially, but you can assume that he'll run) party chairman Cem Özdemir.

No, Kretschmann is happy to govern Baden Württemberg. And it looks like he will form a coalition with the CDU now.

[President Johnson]

I think it would be pretty interesting if the CDU would be competing in Bavaria.

[President Johnson]

A recent report siad that Gabriel wants a contest for the chancellor candidate of the SPD. Due to the poor polling numbers, nobody wants to do the job.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Martin Schulz (SPD), President of the European Parliament, declined to be a candidate for chancellor in 2017 for the Social Democrats. Tagesschau (German)

He would have been a good candidate. However, it looks like Gabriel has to run.

[President Johnson]

Latest INSA-poll, compared to results from March 31, 2015 when the CDU reached an all-time high of 43%

Union: 30 (-13)
SPD: 19 (-5)
AfD: 15 (+11)
Green: 13 (+3)
Left: 9.5 (+0.5)
FDP: 8 (+4)

Grand coalition below 50% for the first time.

[President Johnson]

German president Joachim Gauck has decided not to run for a second term.

http://www.politico.eu/article/joachim-gauck-wont-run-for-second-term-as-german-president/

No surprise. Hope they find a good successor although the office itsself is irrelevant and should be absolished.

[President Johnson]

New INSA poll for Berlin:

CDU: 18%
SPD: 22%
Greens: 18%
FDP: 6%
Left: 14%
AfD: 14%
Others: 8%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin.htm

That will lead into a red-red-green coalition. And another sounding defeat for Merkel. Good! However, hope the SPD will be over 25%.

LOL at the Pirats, they're so done. Not even polled anymore.

[President Johnson]

Bad that the partisan landscape is so divided. An assembly with six parties is difficult but at least the Social Democrats are leading again and continue to govern in the first place.

[President Johnson]

Merkel thinks she's inevitable, but she's done a terrible job. Bad!

All accomplishments over the last decade are the work of the SPD in government or the result/consequence of events like Fukushima.

The SPD better looks out for a candidate who can beat her.

[President Johnson]

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party.

CDU and CSU should split, yes. CSU leader Seehofer now stated that he won't go into another coalition without an upper limit for refugees (200,000 per year). Merkel will never agree on that. But if she wants to form a government with the Greens (and likely the FDP if that isn't enough for a majority), she badly needs the CSU. That actually means, we may end up with a CDU/SPD coalition afterwards. After these four years, both parties would be dead.

The Left should also split. The eastern moderate wing should be integrated in the SPD and the others form a communist party.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Sigmar Gabriel won't run for Chancellor. He also intends to step down as SPD chairman and plans to succeed Frank-Walter Steinmeier as foreign minister in February instead.

Martin Schulz is supposed to become Chancellor-candidate and SPD chairman now.

http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2017-01/sigmar-gabriel-spd-kanzlerkandidatur

Good news. Sigmar is a great guy and an excellent political operator, but just not popular.

Martin Schulz will make a fine candidate. A people's man and strongly pro-EU. As local SPD official, I'm ready to go into the campaign and fight as hell to get him elected.

[President Johnson]

Wow, a brand new poll shows Merkel and Schulz tied, if the chancellor were to elect directly. Encouraging news!

[President Johnson]

YouGov poll:

32.5% CDU/CSU (n.c. compared with last week)
26.0% SPD (+5.0)
13.0% AfD (-1.5)
10.5% Left (-0.5)
  7.5% Greens (-1.0)
  6.5% FDP (-1.0)
  4.0% Others (-1.0)

That is yuge. Come on Schulz, we can throw Merkel out of the chancellery.

[President Johnson]

#Schulzmentum

FWIW, even if the CDU remains the largest party and Merkel remains chancellor of a "grand coalition" - if the gap between the CDU and the SPD narrows vis-a-vis the 2013 election, i assume the SPD would get a larger proportion of seats at the cabinet table.

If the CDU and CSU can't agree after the election (espcially on the refugee crisis), we could end up with a grand coalition of SPD-CDU. Under SPD leadership, because Social Democrats could surpass the CDU alone with these numbers in the high twenties. What's pretty remarkable is that a majority now says, SPD should government.

[President Johnson]

Three weeks ago Pollster Emnid saw a 16 point lead for the CDU/CSU over the SPD. Now only 4 points of that lead are left. Last time the SPD had 29% in an Emnid poll? November 2012.  
  
CDU: 33%  
SPD: 29%  
AfD: 11%  
Linke: 8%  
Grüne: 8%  
FDP: 6%  
  
R2G 45% - Rest 50%  
It's getting closer by the day.  
  
Today by the way Schulz probably gained some more votes. He for the first time criticized some points of the infamous Agenda 2010 and acknowledged that it was misused by some companies to reduce wages.

Still doubt R2G is happening. I personally prefer a SPD-Greens-FDP coaltion (would actually like only SPD-FDP, but that isn't possible unless the Social Democrats gain another twelve points or so).

I even heard rumors that a poll is soon being released from Forsa/RTL Television that has SPD at 31%. #Schulzmentum

[President Johnson]

Would the FDP really want to join a left coalition? Unless they have lingering hatred of Merkel for screwing them over, and want to gain revenge by kicking her out.

They already have in Rhineland-Palatinate and endorsed Frank-Walter Steinmeier for president. The new chairman Chritian Lindner is more of a moderate and I think it could be possible. The FDP is definitely a more reliable force than Die Linke.

In my district are lot of Social Democrats, especially the young ones, who like the FDP more than Greens or Left. We have good relations with their youth organization as well. But that may be not representative. Our county party is more to the right within the SPD spectrum.

[President Johnson]

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.

Why, exactly, are you still a Republican in the US?

Being a FDP/Democratic voter wouldn't make much sense...

Why not? Would seem very ideologically consistent to me.

FDP is more comparable to the Libertarians in the US. FDP is against the Patriot Act, pro gay-marriage and ended the draft. Honestly, I think that most Germans would be Democrats in the US, even Merkel.

[President Johnson]

To be fair, the SPD/Greens governing record in NRW is not that great. I still hope for a SPD-FDP government.

[President Johnson]

Article (German)

Armin Laschet (CDU) has just been elected Prime-Minister of Northrhine-Westphalia, the country's most populated state. He received 100 out of 199 votes in the legislature, exactly the number he needed and the new government-coalition has. Despite being a member of the SPD, I hope he's doing a good job. Laschet is a moderate hero^TM and a very likeable person.