German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

Thanks, Franzl - good for the Forum speed.



Maybe Antonio can lock the Italian thread too. This one is getting too big as well.

...

As for the poll: Forsa was actually the best pollster ahead of the election and that means something. In the past, Forsa was said to underestimate the SPD, because the company boss is a former SPD-member (or still ?) who had trouble with the SPD.

Looking at the poll, I find it weird that the Germans didn't outfit Merkel with an absolute majority right away ...

[Tender Branson]

2014 elections in Germany:

* EU Parliament (May)
* Brandenburg state election (summer/fall) - strong CDU gains likely
* Sachsen state election (summer/fall) - good chance of a CDU absolute majority
* Thüringen state election (summer/fall) - outside chance of a CDU absolute majority

[Tender Branson]

Also:

Local elections in Bavaria (March), Baden-Württemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia (May)

Meh ... nobody really cares about those ...

[Tender Branson]

"Fresh wind" for the Greens:

[Tender Branson]

Brandenburg has chosen a date for their state election next year:

September 14

[Tender Branson]

Merkel, Seehofer and Gabriel have signed the contract for Germany's 3rd grand coalition.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10477272/Angela-Merkel-agrees-to-form-coalition-with-Social-Democrats.html

It still needs to survive the vote among SPD party members, however.

Just a formality ...

[Tender Branson]

Besides, let's see if the Germans can really implement the road toll for foreigners only ...

It's unlikely that the European Court of Justice will uphold a law that discriminates foreigners.

And Austrian Transport Minister Doris Bures has already said she will bring the case to the ECoJ if Germany implements it:

http://www.tt.com/politik/7536387-91/deutsche-maut-bures-droht-mit-eugh.csp

(Which of course is the correct decision to do on part of the Austrian Minister, as long as the Germans don't compensate us for their students crowding our universities free of charge).

Also, there have been several cases here in Austria from German tourists a few years ago, filing charges against the benefits for Austrian citizens for skiing area passes (Austrians got a discount when they went skiing, while Germans and other tourists had to pay the full price for the ski card). This was scrapped by the ECoJ and everyone needs to pay the same price now.

So, there's already a precedent on this and ironically brought into the field by Germans ...

So, let it fail ...

[Tender Branson]

The road toll wouldn't be for foreigners only, not sure where you're getting that idea. The Austrians really have no room to complain here, considering the amounts they make for short term tolls. The university comparison is also rather odd, considering that tuition fees hardly exist anymore here either.

The road toll is for Germans and foreigners, but the German car owners get the road-toll cost back via lower car-insurance taxes, no ? At least that's what I've read. Which means Germans are exemt from the toll.

Plus, we can complain because we have to pay the full toll as well, like all German tourists need as well ...

[Tender Branson]

The best part was at the end when she said "Thank you Mr. Gabriel for that discussion !" and a smile that makes your boner shrink in a second.

[Tender Branson]

The CDU has overtaken the SPD in NRW:



CDU gains 12 points in the past year and a half ...

Approval ratings of politicians:

[Tender Branson]

The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.

I'll predict:

63% Yes
37% No

[Tender Branson]

The result of the SPD members' poll will be announced today. Should they (as expected) vote in favor, Merkel will be elected to her 3rd term on Tuesday.

I'll predict:

63% Yes
37% No

I expect something extreme. Either 70-80% YES, or 49-52% YES...

In the unlikely event that the SPD base says NO, would there be immediate new elections, or would they just try to form a new coalition instead ?

[Tender Branson]

It looks like the SPD membership vote will be announced tomorrow, not today.

They have to transport the 350.000 postal votes to a former train station in Berlin, in which they can count about 40.000 ballots per hour.

Results are then expected in the evening.

[Tender Branson]

Also, the "Spiegel" reports that Sigmar Gabriel will become a Super-Minister for Economy and Energy.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier -> Foreign Minister

Heiko Maas -> Justice Minister

Andrea Nahles -> Labour & Social Minister

Manuela Schwesig -> Family Minister

Barbara Hendricks -> Environment Minister

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, about 10% of the SPD postal ballots are invalid because mandatory signatures of those who voted are missing on the envelopes:

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article122851861/Tausende-ungueltige-Stimmen-bei-SPD-Mitgliedervotum.html

That is kinda weird, because usually the invalid-vote even among absentee ballots is more like 1-3%.

[Tender Branson]

The date for the Sachsen (Saxony) state election has been set by the state government:

August 31, 2014

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/wahltermin102_zc-e9a9d57e_zs-6c4417e7.html

[Tender Branson]

The Grand Coalition is now talking about extending the legislative term from 4 years to 5 years:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/union-und-spd-offen-fuer-verlaengerung-der-wahlperiode-a-941057.html

The same was done here in 2007.

[Tender Branson]

I would say, from looking at the world, that the US House's two years are too short and anything longer is too long.

So, you favour the Australian or NZ way (3 years) ?



I generally have nothing against 4, 5 or even 6 year terms because stuff gets done and the government or the country itself is likely a bit more stable than if there were changes every 2-3 years.

On ther other hand, elections every 2 years like in the US are good for us, who like to follow them and like to make maps - but rather bad for the country because of the constant campaigning which leads to standstill ...

[Tender Branson]

The US is a special case with the way campaigns are. In most places, having an election every 3 years wouldn't really be that much trouble. I'd certainly rather go in that direction than further up...

Yeah, but we can also see it as a cost-cutting measure: Holding an election every 5-6 years instead of 3-4 saves you worth a total election after a few years. And that's not a few cents ...

[Tender Branson]

Coming up next:

-Opening of the Berlin-Brandenburg airport postponed to at least 2015, further significant cost increase (says a usually well-informed friend of mine who is civil engineering consultant in Berlin)

Woah, that is one big mess ...

Will it likely impact the state election as well, or is it more about Berlin rather than BB ?

[Tender Branson]

German Chancellor Angela Merkel injured in skiing accident

Merkel's spokesman Steffen Seibert said on Monday that the Chancellor fell while cross-country skiing in Switzerland.

As a result, some meetings have been cancelled - including the planned visit to Poland on Wednesday and a reception for the prime minister of Luxembourg on Thursday in Berlin.

More to come ...

http://www.dw.de/german-chancellor-angela-merkel-injured-in-skiing-accident/a-17343329

[Tender Branson]

3 new state election polls (all of those states will have state elections this year):

Brandenburg/Forsa

34% SPD
25% Left
23% CDU
  5% Greens
  4% FDP
  4% AfD
  5% Others

Sachsen/uniQma

49% CDU
17% SPD
15% Left
  6% Greens
  6% AfD
  2% FDP
  2% Pirates
  1% NPD
  2% Others

Thüringen/INSA

35% CDU
27% Left
18% SPD
  7% Greens
  5% AfD
  2% FDP
  6% Others

[Tender Branson]

The Brandenburg poll is good news for the SPD, if true.

Other recent polls have shown the CDU gaining and moving into a tie with the SPD here.

Also, the CDU reaches a 10-year high in Saxony - but I have never heard of that pollster before.

[Tender Branson]

All state election dates have now been set:

31.08.2014: Sachsen (Saxony)
14.09.2014: Brandenburg, Thüringen (Thuringia)

[Tender Branson]

New Hamburg state election poll by Infratest dimap for NDR:



EU elections:



Job approvals of party leaders:



Direct vote for Mayor:



By party:



http://www.ndr.de/regional/hamburg/umfrage621.html