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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 662352 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #4300 on: October 29, 2018, 03:15:20 AM »

Good to see that the Greens ended up 94 votes ahead of the SPD out of 2.5 million votes cast.

Good for my prediction, because you guys all predicted the SPD to finish ahead of them.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,181
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #4301 on: October 29, 2018, 03:18:48 AM »

Still, palandido's prediction was the best using the errors for all parties ...
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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United Kingdom


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« Reply #4302 on: October 29, 2018, 04:06:58 AM »

An actual exact tie for second place on the list vote is exactly the sort of electoral absurdity that we have come to expect from the good people of Hesse.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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Israel


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« Reply #4303 on: October 29, 2018, 04:20:47 AM »

I think 'Deputy Prime Minister' or 'Deputy Premier' would be better translations - 'Governor' has colonial overtones, which sit a little awkwardly.

The accurate translation would be deputy minister president. However, I try to Americanize those terms in order to homogenize the contents of my posts with the rest of the forum. I don't write Land, but state instead, so that everybody knows what I mean. Moreover, deputy minister president doesn't sound as cool and lit and swag as lieutenant governor. Tongue
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
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Germany


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E: -3.23, S: -4.70


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« Reply #4304 on: October 29, 2018, 04:28:53 AM »

Breaking: Merkel does not run for leader of the CDU again in December

https://www.tagesschau.de/eilmeldung/eilmeldung-4033.html
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4305 on: October 29, 2018, 04:39:15 AM »


Who do you think will be her successor? AKK?
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President Johnson
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Germany


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« Reply #4306 on: October 29, 2018, 04:40:45 AM »


Most likely. Or Armin Laschet, who would be my preferred one.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4307 on: October 29, 2018, 04:45:04 AM »


Most likely. Or Armin Laschet, who would be my preferred one.

You're probably right. He's the CDU state leader and governor minister president of the most populous Land. The question is if he will also be the next chancellor candidate or if both posts will be split.
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President Johnson
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Germany


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« Reply #4308 on: October 29, 2018, 04:50:47 AM »


Most likely. Or Armin Laschet, who would be my preferred one.

You're probably right. He's the CDU state leader and governor minister president of the most populous Land. The question is if he will also be the next chancellor candidate or if both posts will be split.

Yeah, this is the main question. If Merkel steps down before 2021, I see Wolfgang Schäuble as caretaker chancellor to the end of this term.

Laschet is also away from Berlin, what does not tie him too closely with the grand coalition.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4309 on: October 29, 2018, 05:12:37 AM »

Yeah, this is the main question. If Merkel steps down before 2021, I see Wolfgang Schäuble as caretaker chancellor to the end of this term.

Laschet is also away from Berlin, what does not tie him too closely with the grand coalition.

Schäuble becoming chancellor would probably be one of the biggest surprises of post-war history.
He wanted to displace Kohl so badly back in 1998, but he was thwarted by his own party. A chancellorship by him would truly be a veritable miracle.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #4310 on: October 29, 2018, 05:23:36 AM »

The municipality won by AFD was actually a labourer camp during war period.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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Israel


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« Reply #4311 on: October 29, 2018, 05:34:22 AM »

The municipality won by AFD was actually a labourer camp during war period.

Thank you for that information!
The AfD won the 2882-inhabitant town of Hirzenheim, Wetteraukreis, with 23.3% of the vote; the runner-up is the CDU with 20.2%.

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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4312 on: October 29, 2018, 05:49:43 AM »

Laschet is also away from Berlin, what does not tie him too closely with the grand coalition.

Friedrich Merz is being discussed. 😂😂😂
That reminds me of Franz Müntefering's short comeback after Kurt Beck was bullied away by his own party.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4313 on: October 29, 2018, 07:12:03 AM »

AKK, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz are running for the party chairmanship so far.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4314 on: October 29, 2018, 07:38:05 AM »

Merkel just announced at a news conference that is not going to run for the chancellorship again. Furthermore, she won't even be running for a Bundestag seat in the next federal election.
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #4315 on: October 29, 2018, 08:00:10 AM »

So, Black-Green is hanging on with a one-seat majority (69 to 68), decided by the CDU being 99 votes ahead in Odenwald district and securing a 40th direct seat.

No final word on the changes to the constitution yet, but going by those results that are in, they all seem to have passed. Lowering the age for getting elected (#12) got the most (around 30%) No votes, with removal of the death penalty (#4) and European integration (#11) about tied for second place at around 20% No.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4316 on: October 29, 2018, 12:44:11 PM »

I think 'Deputy Prime Minister' or 'Deputy Premier' would be better translations - 'Governor' has colonial overtones, which sit a little awkwardly.

Even the NY Times uses the term governor!!! Wink + Tongue
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #4317 on: October 29, 2018, 12:50:12 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2018, 12:53:13 PM by pilskonzept »

I'd bet some money on new federal elections on or before May 26, 2019.

Which is the date of the Euro elections and four state elections, three of which are in the East where Merkel has become electoral poison actually no, just one state election (Bremen) but lots of local elections.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4318 on: October 29, 2018, 01:13:30 PM »

I'd bet some money on new federal elections on or before May 26, 2019.

Which is the date of the Euro elections and four state elections, three of which are in the East where Merkel has become electoral poison actually no, just one state election (Bremen) but lots of local elections.

If Köhler and Wulff hadn't stepped down, that date would also be the presidential election day.
Wouldn't that be cool to have the European election, the federal election, the presidential election and the first interesting Bremen state election since the foundation of the FRG on the same day?
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #4319 on: October 29, 2018, 01:31:38 PM »

I'd bet some money on new federal elections on or before May 26, 2019.

Which is the date of the Euro elections and four state elections, three of which are in the East where Merkel has become electoral poison actually no, just one state election (Bremen) but lots of local elections.

If Köhler and Wulff hadn't stepped down, that date would also be the presidential election day.
Wouldn't that be cool to have the European election, the federal election, the presidential election and the first interesting Bremen state election since the foundation of the FRG on the same day?

Don't think the presidential election has ever been held on the same day as a major popular election. The electors are too busy campaigning elsewhere. I agree on the rest.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #4320 on: October 29, 2018, 01:54:38 PM »

AKK, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz are running for the party chairmanship so far.
AKK seems to be the frontrunner, but Spahn has been pretty popular among party delegates at the recent conventions. I'm wondering whether his job as Minister of Health hurt him, because he's not really doing a good job. And he's viewed rather unfavorable among non-conservatives.
I'd love to see Friedrich Merz as Chairman. He has become an outsider without any baggage, he could get a lot of former CDU-Voters back and isn't toxic to moderates either. And as a former rival of Merkel, he is the ultimate Anti-Merkel candidate.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
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Germany


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« Reply #4321 on: October 29, 2018, 02:40:05 PM »

Hope Armin Laschet jumps in. He would also make a fine chancellor (actually my favorite CDU politican).
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #4322 on: October 29, 2018, 03:11:30 PM »

AKK, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz are running for the party chairmanship so far.
AKK seems to be the frontrunner, but Spahn has been pretty popular among party delegates at the recent conventions. I'm wondering whether his job as Minister of Health hurt him, because he's not really doing a good job. And he's viewed rather unfavorable among non-conservatives.
I'd love to see Friedrich Merz as Chairman. He has become an outsider without any baggage, he could get a lot of former CDU-Voters back and isn't toxic to moderates either. And as a former rival of Merkel, he is the ultimate Anti-Merkel candidate.

For a minute, I wondered whether Merz entered the race as a spoiler to Spahn.
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #4323 on: October 29, 2018, 04:11:57 PM »

AKK, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz are running for the party chairmanship so far.
AKK seems to be the frontrunner, but Spahn has been pretty popular among party delegates at the recent conventions. I'm wondering whether his job as Minister of Health hurt him, because he's not really doing a good job. And he's viewed rather unfavorable among non-conservatives.
I'd love to see Friedrich Merz as Chairman. He has become an outsider without any baggage, he could get a lot of former CDU-Voters back and isn't toxic to moderates either. And as a former rival of Merkel, he is the ultimate Anti-Merkel candidate.

For a minute, I wondered whether Merz entered the race as a spoiler to Spahn.

Is a plurality enough to win? If so, they'd definitely hurt each other. Anyway, I could see one of them drop out and support the other. As long as Merkel stays on as Chancellor the party chairman will struggle anyways, because everything will stay the same with her and I doubt that anyone can pull the CDU out of their slump due to the GroKo.
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pilskonzept
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #4324 on: October 29, 2018, 04:26:25 PM »

AKK, Jens Spahn and Friedrich Merz are running for the party chairmanship so far.
AKK seems to be the frontrunner, but Spahn has been pretty popular among party delegates at the recent conventions. I'm wondering whether his job as Minister of Health hurt him, because he's not really doing a good job. And he's viewed rather unfavorable among non-conservatives.
I'd love to see Friedrich Merz as Chairman. He has become an outsider without any baggage, he could get a lot of former CDU-Voters back and isn't toxic to moderates either. And as a former rival of Merkel, he is the ultimate Anti-Merkel candidate.

For a minute, I wondered whether Merz entered the race as a spoiler to Spahn.

Is a plurality enough to win? If so, they'd definitely hurt each other. Anyway, I could see one of them drop out and support the other. As long as Merkel stays on as Chancellor the party chairman will struggle anyways, because everything will stay the same with her and I doubt that anyone can pull the CDU out of their slump due to the GroKo.

No, there is a runoff if no one wins a majority. But unless AKK wins, GroKo will be as good as dead.
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