German Elections & Politics

[jaichind]

Cdu 28. Spd 20. Green 19.5. Left 6.5. Fdp 7.5. Afd 12

[Tender Branson]

ZDF exit poll:







Turnout: 68%

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1056591654063407105

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1056591695058534400

[jaichind]

Left right balance seems unchanged from 2013 except for AfD going above 5%

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1056593210468909058

CDU-Grüne: 63

SPD-Grüne-Linke: 63

[Oryxslayer]

So exit polls say pre-election polls were extremely accurate. Lets see if that holds true. If it does, then all the 'easy' govts are just out of reach: R2G, Traffic-Light, and both Union-Green and Union-SPD are juuuuust short of govt. Basically forces a Union + FDP + Red or Green govt.

[Tender Branson]

The exit poll results are very close to my prediction.

I'd like to see the CDU gain another point though in the actual count and the AfD to drop by a point and the Greens to stay ahead of the SPD and I'd be really happy with my prediction.

Also: the AfD is now represented in all 16 state parliaments.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Also: the AfD is now represented in all 16 state parliaments.

Only one of two parties (currently).
Moreover, the last Hessian Landtag election was the only state election where the AfD didn't surpass the threshold.

[parochial boy]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1056593210468909058

CDU-Grüne: 63

SPD-Grüne-Linke: 63

16 overhang seats?

[Oryxslayer]

EuropeElects creates a nice image for what I am saying. Some party better gain a seat from the exit poll baseline, , or govt is going to be forced into a single Union-FDP-Green/SPD track.

Also does anyone have a link to the returns site? I can't seem to find it on https://hessischer-landtag.de/

[Tender Branson]

First ZDF projection based on some already-counted precincts:

[Tender Branson]

And the same for the ARD:

[President Johnson]

According to ARD, 73% of former CDU voters and 53% of lost SPD voters say this election is an opportunity to express their disapproval to the federal government.

I believe we have to end the grand coaltion and either call for new elections or go to a Jamaica coalition. Both without Merkel. The Merkel/Scholz/Seehofer government has not the necessary support to continue leading this country.

[Tender Branson]

Official results can be found here:

https://statistik-hessen.de/l_2018/html/neuste-ergebnisse

It's the list with the incoming constituencies.

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting that ARD's smaller Parliamentary size makes Union-Green or Union-Red possibilities.

[Tender Branson]

One thing is for sure after today:

If the CDU remains stuck at 27% and a renewed coalition with the Greens (20%) or SPD (20%) is not possible any longer, the voices within the party to get rid of Merkel will grow really loud over the next months ...

This result today is not something that she can "sit out" or ignore any longer, like she did with the migrant crimes.

[President Johnson]

One thing is for sure after today:

If the CDU remains stuck at 27% and a renewed coalition with the Greens (20%) or SPD (20%) is not possible any longer, the voices within the party to get rid of Merkel will grow really loud over the next months ...

This result today is not something that she can "sit out" or ignore any longer, like she did with the migrant crimes.

Let's hope this happens. If CDU+Greens continue to have a majority, Merkel will continue. She will probably anyway, like Horst Seehofer, who tries to sit this out.

[Michael19754]

What consequences can we expect por The Greens at the national level if they manage to overtake the SPD and maybe even head a government in the case that the Red-Red-Green coalition wins a majority?
Will their polling momentum continue and could they perhaps start closing in in on the Union?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

[Oryxslayer]

Union - Green: 50%
Union - Red: 50%
Traffic Light: 50%
R2G: 49%

Available: Jamaica, Kenya, Union-SPD-FDP

We are no closer to breaking this impasse.

[Tender Branson]

I just watched the Berliner Runde roundtable and the AfD-frontrunner there was a real Ungustl (or Unsympathler in High-German), as we would call such a nasty, unlikeable person in Austria.

From the looks, a Bolsonaro-clone, and he sounded like a Nazi straight out of WW2:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

The Greens could win 5/6 state election constituencies that make up the city of Frankfurt.

They are a bit further behind in district 34, where it's unlikely that they can close the gap.

But only about 10% of precincts are counted in the city ...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I just watched the Berliner Runde roundtable and the AfD-frontrunner there was a real Ungustl (or Unsympathler in High-German), as we would call such a nasty, unlikeable person in Austria.

From the looks, a Bolsonaro-clone, and he sounded like a Nazi straight out of WW2:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He's a dentist by profession. Wouldn't it be fun to let him draw your teeth?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Greens could win 5/6 state election constituencies that make up the city of Frankfurt.

They are a bit further behind in district 34, where it's unlikely that they can close the gap.

But only about 10% of precincts are counted in the city ...

If that's the case, the Greens will eventually surpass the SPD in the whole state.