German Elections & Politics

[rob in cal]

Speaking of lower threshold hurdles for the EP, are there any proposals to lower the threshold hurdles in Landtag or even Bundestag elections that mainstream parties and politicians are talking about?

[rob in cal]

     If there was still a CDU/FDP government, would its stance toward the refugee/migrant crisis be any different than what we are seeing?

[rob in cal]

   Also, the Others category is up to 9%.  Wonder who predominates in that group.

[rob in cal]

    Is there any chance of an internal coup within the CDU to overthrow Merkel? If that were to happen and someone like Schauble take over would the SPD still want to continue in coalition?

[rob in cal]

   Yeah, I would think that none of the parties in the Bundestag would like to see new elections, since the AFD have a very good chance of taking seats, and the FDP somewhat, and none of the major parties currently in the Bundestag would want the AFD to get in.

[rob in cal]

   Has Die Linke Partei forged a clear policy on the migrant issue?  I would guess that the party leadership would be in favor of a more open borders policy, but could imagine that much of their electorate might not be so in favor of it.  Also, it might be tough for seasoned leftists to be on the same side of an issue as the elites, and the business elites especially.

[rob in cal]

     Beezer, what do you think  the new Baden Wurtemberg government would look like if the polls hold up like that?  A CDU FDP coalition with the AFD tolerating it?  Or would the AFD not want to do this and thus maybe a CDU SPD coalition, or CDU minority government?  Would love to see the AFD overtake SPD as third largest party, that would make for a nice electoral earthquake.  If there is no sign of a lessening of the refugee flows that might be possible, I would think.

[rob in cal]

   This would make a second place finish for the AFD in Saxony Anhalt that much more hilarious.

[rob in cal]

   Doesn't it make sense that the SPD is holding its place in the polls.  I would think most of its electorate wouldn't be too opposed to Merkels migrant policy.  It would be the CDU electorate which I would think would be more opposed to it.

[rob in cal]

   I'm wondering what type of election results in the upcoming Lander elections would lead to increasing calls for Merkel to go?  Isn't it likely that the CDU will actually take power in BW, whether in coalition or a minority government, so that fact alone might soften the blow for her?

[rob in cal]

   Any ideas of who are the leading parties of the other parties getting 7% in Saxony Anhalt?  If a lot of that is to rightist splinter parties, that's even more of a big protest vote.

[rob in cal]

    Hessen local elections today showed AFD getting seats in cities throughout Hessen.  A good sign for the party for the coming votes next week. 

[rob in cal]

    Some  new developments in German political history today.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU wins seats in three landtags at the same time.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU is the second biggest in a German landtag.  Huge victory for political diversity today.  

[rob in cal]

    SA is even more interesting with all the other wasted votes going to the NPD.  The final combined votes going for parties to the right of the CDU is going to be very high.

[rob in cal]

  I would argue that on the existential issues of immigration  and the  ethinic de-Germanization of Germany the forces in favor of that , which I would argue are on the left, are doing quite well, if one looks at the long term trend.  Today certainly amounts to a reset of sorts, but its not as if the AFD and its allies has some new majority.

[rob in cal]

   I wonder if the extent of the AFD victories and CDU losses will impact Merkel.  Its not as if these losses were unexpected, though the size is a bit bigger than expected.  
   Concerning what I term ethnic de-Germanization, I'm referring to the situation where in many German cities, the % of schoolchildren whose parents or grandparents are from what is termed a "migration background" is quite high and growing higher.  

[rob in cal]

    Also, the fate of the Greens is intriguing.  1st place in BW, barely passing the 5% threshold in RP and SA.

[rob in cal]

   Why did the Greens collapse so bad in RP?

[rob in cal]

   Do we have a breakdown of support by social classes in these elections?  Wonder if the AFD support is coming from working class groups, especially in SA?

[rob in cal]

  Or what about black, red, yellow?

[rob in cal]

Yeah, Antififa activists are against the fascist international football association, with its eurocentrism, its support of giant public works (huge stadiums) and other assorted fascist transgressions.

[rob in cal]

   With the Greens at 5% is there a chance that their voters desert them out of fear of wasting their votes?  Or would it be more likely that Linke and SPD voters might back them to help them get over the threshold?
   The idea of a Grand Coalition with a minority of votes and seats is fascinating.

[rob in cal]

  Would this be the first time the CDU has finished third in a state parliamentary election?

[rob in cal]

   If you combine the AFD, Alfa and NPD vote in the border districts these parties reached a combined mid 30% of the vote there.

[rob in cal]

    I have this political fantasy that after enough times of just missing the 5% threshold in various German elections, the FDP and Greens will insist on threshold reform (a lower threshold, or the transferability of the vote perhaps) when they enter future government coalitions.