2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1323890527767416834

Ngl this pleasantly surprises me.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Remember, PA is showing Trump up in places like Bucks and Chester. Obviously, this won't be anywhere close to the final result. Don't underestimate Biden with the rest of the ballots.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Goddamn Georgia is going to be insanely close.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Well, looks like I was right about one thing. If Biden wins Wisconsin, his path runs through the metros--not the Driftless area.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Upper Midwest suburb alert: Anoka, MN swing from 41% to HRC to 48% for Biden. That's big!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

Swing map from '16?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

MKE still has over 20% of votes left! I think that this is it. Biden flips WI.

Thank you Arch! And thank you to your fellow Wisconsin Democrats!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

Biden is obviously favored. He can easily do what he just did in Wisconsin in Michigan, needs less than 60% of remaining mail votes. And he may be able to do it in GA too. Never mind PA. Trump needs to sweep them all and the odds of that are not good given the math.

Again, being able to do basic math has its advantages over relying on your feelings for everything.

You are conveniently ignoring Nevada.

You mean how most of the outstanding vote is in Clark?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

WTF is happening with Decision Desk in Georgia?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

WTF is happening with Decision Desk in Georgia?

What do you mean?

It's saying 99% of the vote in on their website. Is it a misentry?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So are the next big numbers gonna come out of Michigan?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

Pretty Cool... can you just explain what we are looking at exactly by %?

Swing map from '16?

Yep!

Dahlonega Joe!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I can't wait for a precinct map of this election. There is so much #analysis here.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This is so weird.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If f#cking Michelle Steel beats Harley Rouda, Ima break something.


(Or if Kim beats Gomez in my own district. Augh!)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If I go to sleep but wake up by 9:00 Eastern, do you think I miss anything?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Okay I'm headed to sleep until 11 EST.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Concerned about AZ at 86% of vote and only 93000 vote lead for Biden.  Same day vote--and where is the remaining vote coming from?

Remaining vote is late-arriving absentee.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

what counties are the outstanding ballots in az from?

Basically all of them except Yavapai and Santa Cruz.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Remaining vote is almost all Detroit. Peters should have this narrowly.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Luria won!

(Frankly, I thought she'd have a harder time than Spanberger.)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

Los Angeles County appears to have swung toward Trump.

You can't really conclude that without knowing which votes are outstanding.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

Los Angeles County appears to have swung toward Trump.

What?
Urban minorities swung right?
Which poster could have possibly predicted such a shift?

Okay, you expected a Trump win. If that somehow happens, you can have some accolades but right now you're just as off as the 413 map.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This election is over. The only question is 1932 or 1980 sized wave.

Just wanted to relive the hubris of this moment, lol

Say hello to 1976/2000!

Yup, perhaps 1976 redux. Current NPV is similar, 50.1% to 48%.

Just hope 2024 won't be GOP realignment then.

What is there left for them to realign on?

Biden proves increasingly unpopular over his term his office, and the results from last night prove that the GOP has a path forward with Latino (and to a lesser extent) Black voters

Just so you know, Cubans ≠ Latinos

Trump's swings in heavily Mexican-American regions of the Rio Grande Valley were even bigger than his gains among Cubans in Florida, mate.

What we're seeing is racial depolarization.  Democrats cannot simultaneously be the party of high-earning, White suburbanites and working class Latinos/Blacks.  Civil Rights-era racial attitudes are being phased out as Silents/Boomers age out of the electorate.     

Curious to see precinct results in places like Southeast LA County. I want to know if this applies to urban Latinos or is just a rural/Tejano thing.

Its racial depolarization but with caveats. There is still fluidity in the vote and CA urban centers didnt appear to move very much.

Los Angeles County appears to have swung toward Trump.

What?
Urban minorities swung right?
Which poster could have possibly predicted such a shift?

Okay, you expected a Trump win. If that somehow happens, you can have some accolades but right now you're just as off as the 413 map.

We're a lot closer to a Trump win than a 413 blue wave election, lol

Perhaps in electoral votes but not in relevant impact. But I don't think a 300 vote Biden win is meaningfully closer to the 250 vote world Forumlurker was living in than a Biden landslide. This is just a medium Biden win--and shouldn't really come as a surprise to anybody. Although internal data (Florida!) within it certainly should.