2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Horus]

Well, I hope we're still able to have free and fair elections four years from now. Odds on that?

[H. Ross Peron]

Yeah it’s time to push left on fiscal issues and right on social issues.

Ew no. You really think that's what cost us in Fla and TX?

Considering you see 60 point swings in poor rural Tejano counties?

Yes lol.

I think it's pretty clear that left on economics is bad with Latinos.

Stop confusing gusanos with Latinos in general. There are two separate problems here actually, arguably three:

1) Gusano Latinos (Cubans, Venezuelans, Colombians) in South Florida who are selfish little pricks and went all in on Trump's macho persona/militant opposition to BLM. They are basically Staten Island/Jersey Shore Italians at this point in terms of their reactionary politics. At this point the Dems should tell them to piss off, considering Donna Shalala spent her entire term sucking them off and yet the gusanos proved complete ingrates.
2) Rural Latinos in South Texas and New Mexico who are probably turned off by Democratic Party stances on cultural issues but not particularly against left-wing economics especially if they can be persuaded that they will materially benefit from it.
3) More of a turnout problem, but younger urban working-class Latinos, especially men who are left-wing on economic issues (strongly Sanders base) and culturally liberal but not particularly enamoured by "wokeness".

The Dems don't have to adopt Republican views on the Culture Wars but they have to be a genuinely big tent party and take a social liberal, civil libertarian approach on social issues.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump is only down 20k votes in Nevada, a nail biter we didn't expect

The rurals are reporting much faster than Clark. 

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

AP is saying 100% of NC is reporting.

It's been a few minutes. Find the link for this yet?

Just go to where AP is doing this.

They still say 100%, so why not call NC already?

I have gone to sites using the AP total. It says 95%. Will you please direct me to the site you are seeing this at? Why are you being so obtuse and evasive?

https://microsoftnews.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/results-map?ocid=msedgntp

[Storr]

Trump is only down 20k votes in Nevada, a nail biter we didn't expect

The rurals are reporting much faster than Clark. 

Seems so, Clark is at 75% reporting, while rural counties are 80s and up.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump is only down 20k votes in Nevada, a nail biter we didn't expect

The rurals are reporting much faster than Clark. 

Seems so, Clark is at 75% reporting, while rural counties are 80s and up.

However Biden is losing ground in Washoe over time, which could be concerning for him.

[kwabbit]

NV is looking to be a nail biter. I have a feeling the election day votes in Clark may be better for Trump than expected, although Ralston is confident in Biden. If Trump could win it that would give him another route to 270. The final map could look a little screwy.

[Splash]

Trump's margin in MI down to 240K after a smattering of precincts from Saginaw, Kalamazoo, Grand Traverse, and Lansing lifts the expected vote from 72% to 74%

[Meclazine for Israel]

Biden catching in MI and will make it to a win according to the current ratios.

WI - Biden down by 108,000 (83% counted)

Of the remaining 647,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 356,000 of them. (58.9%)

MI - Biden down by 252,567 (74% counted)

Of the remaining 1,442,332 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 847,500 of them. (58.7%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

PA - Biden down by 677,988 (74% counted)

Of the remaining 1,850,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,257,000 of them. (67.8%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 4 scenarios to win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NV is looking to be a nail biter. I have a feeling the election day votes in Clark may be better for Trump than expected, although Ralston is confident in Biden. If Trump could win it that would give him another route to 270. The final map could look a little screwy.

If Ralston is bullish on Biden in NV, then I'm bullish on him as well.

[forsythvoter]

One final closing comment. If Biden wins tonight, it will be because of the suburban swings against Trump:

GA: Metro Atlanta counties are swinging double digits against Trump. If GA falls to the Dems, it will be because of these swings

WI: Look at the WOW counties. Waukesha and Ozaukee are showing 7-8% swings to Biden. It's these swings that are keeping Biden competitive despite losing counties in the Southwest.
*On a separate note, Dane's turnout also may prove to be a key factor

AZ: Look at Maricopa. Enough said

MN: Look at Hennepin and counties like Carver and Scott. This is why the state is not the nailbiter we saw in 2016.

The list goes on but I need sleep.

[kwabbit]

I think James is favored in MI-Senate at this point, along with Collins in Maine. Thinking the final breakdown will be 53-47, but those Georgia runoffs could go either way (expecting Purdue-Ossoff to go runoff).

[CityByTheValley]

I did a bit more digging before I go to bed and some of the suburban swings tell us exactly what kind of party the Dems will be trending towards... and it's not going to be poorer by any means. Just looking at the MHI in MA and CT, we have the wealthiest towns:

Town.    MHI.    Clinton Margin.    Biden Margin (Tentative).    Swing

MA
1) Dover.    $204,018.    59-33 (26 pts).    69-28 (41 pts).    +15 D
2) Weston - Vote Data not available in 2020
3) Wellesley.    $176,852.    72-22 (50 pts)     77-20 (57 pts).    +7 D
4) Sudbury.    $170,945.    71-24 (47 pts).    76-22 (54 pts).    +7 D
5) Sherborn     $170,872.    68-24 (44 pts).    77-19 (58 pts).    +14 D
6) Carlisle.    $170,703.    70-22 (48 pts).    76-21 (55 pts).    +7 D

CT
1) Weston.    $219,083.    67-29 (38 pts).    73-26 (47 pts).    +9 D
2) Darien.    $210,511.    53-41 (12 pts).    61-38 (23 pts).    +11 D
3) New Canaan      $192,428.    53-42 (11 pts).    59-40 (19 pts).    +8 D
4) Westport.    $187,988.    69-27 (42 pts).    85-14 (71 pts).    + 29 (!!!) D*
5) Wilton.    $187,903.    58-37 (21 pts).    65-33 (32 pts).    +12 D

*Caveat regarding Westport - while most other towns in CT are 95%+ in, it is around 35% in. If this margin holds, however, it would literally be bluer than Bridgeport and New Haven, and actually the second-bluest place in CT after only Hartford.

Keep in mind the Biden data is still updating, although almost completed, and HRC saw the biggest margins for a Dem EVER in some of those towns, with Biden pulling even that to the left. I recall seeing a thread on this forum related to this topic and we already were seeing HRC gaining major swings nationwide, which I believe Biden will top.

I was too lazy to find education data, but this is a clear repudiation of Trump by even the wealthiest suburbanites. I'd predicted earlier we'd see Santa Clara County and neighboring San Mateo County see similar swings and as the votes are counted I'm fairly certain we'll see these results in Atherton, Hillsborough, Los Altos Hills, Woodside, and other mega-wealthy towns in the Bay Area. This pattern will probably stay nationwide although I feel like the Miami-Dade swings will prevent any movement or may reverse the trends for Key Biscayne, Coral Gables, and Pinecrest.

[BlueSwan]

Imagine going through the last four years and saying "Yeah, we want another four of this sh!t". America is doomed, even if Biden ekes it finally out. Trump should have been rejected by an epic margin.

I absolutely agree. Even if Biden ends up eeking this out, which I still very much doubt, then this is a horrifying result given that everybody has seen what a raging lunatic Donald Trump is. The future for America and frankly the civilized western world, looks very bleak indeed.

[Bootes Void]

Washoe is Biden +4 now with 90% reporting . Four years ago Clinton only won Washoe by 1%. Biden will win NV but man there are some many issues going on

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

PredictIt has lousy odds for Democrats in Senate races. 39% GA special was their only above 16%. That's with a MI loss in addition to AL and the CO and AZ wins.

[kwabbit]

NV is looking to be a nail biter. I have a feeling the election day votes in Clark may be better for Trump than expected, although Ralston is confident in Biden. If Trump could win it that would give him another route to 270. The final map could look a little screwy.

If Ralston is bullish on Biden in NV, then I'm bullish on him as well.

He's been getting less confident over time however; I don't think he'd want to contradict his prediction until its certain to go one way.

[Gren]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties put together have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

[gf20202]

AP is saying 100% of NC is reporting.

It's been a few minutes. Find the link for this yet?

Just go to where AP is doing this.

They still say 100%, so why not call NC already?

I have gone to sites using the AP total. It says 95%. Will you please direct me to the site you are seeing this at? Why are you being so obtuse and evasive?

https://microsoftnews.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/results-map?ocid=msedgntp

Shockingly Microsoftnews.msn.com isn't a real viable news source. Congrats on finding the world's worst fake scammy news page and choosing it over literally other any other accredited news source.

[VBM]

Obama made a huge mistake by not pushing for DC statehood when he had the trifecta.

[Alben Barkley]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

I think you’re right. And I also think Biden will win at least one of MI, PA, or GA. That will do it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Well, looks like I was right about one thing. If Biden wins Wisconsin, his path runs through the metros--not the Driftless area.

[Horus]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

I think you’re right. And I also think Biden will win at least one of MI, PA, or GA. That will do it.

You know, I have to admire your determination. Biden is almost certain to lose yet you're still holding out hope.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

For all the early consternation about Virginia, it looks like Biden will win it by about 10%.  Some people never learn.

[kwabbit]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties put together have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

The rural counties are providing larger vote margins than last time, which is the counterbalance to the suburban swing to Biden.