2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If Biden wins GA I will exclusively use Georgia based businesses for a year. The good people of Atlanta deserve it. F#ck you AA in Fort Worth--Delta gets my money from now on.

BRTD?

Eh, it's kinda fun to reconstruct your life around rabid partisanship. Don't worry though--I promise I won't be making my way over to r/feet any time soon.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324105713799569409?s=21
It is time:

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

Trump is going to win again

Of course Biden is favored to win, he's literally stealing the election now.

Now won't this narrative be fun!

(Reminder, as things stand right now, Biden leads in 270 electoral votes. So idk how you wanna spin this red mirage thing.)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

You guys think Fox was premature in calling Arizona or do they know something we don't?

Not sure but my guess is their confidence comes from precinct level results they're seeing. It's possible Biden is exceeding his benchmarks in each neighborhood in Maricopa.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

NYT has kept AZ turnout at 86% all day even though we've had several vote dumps

NYT is useless at this point tbh.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Funnily enough PA aside Arizona looks like Biden is going to be saved by the hispanic vote & republicans crossing over.

Can't really draw any conclusions until we see the Maricopa County map. Maybe the Latino vote in south and west Phoenix is turning out. Maybe it's underperforming but Biden is running up the score in Scottsdale and Chandler. We really don't know.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

PA way higher, GA higher, NC lower.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Funnily enough PA aside Arizona looks like Biden is going to be saved by the hispanic vote & republicans crossing over.

Can't really draw any conclusions until we see the Maricopa County map. Maybe the Latino vote in south and west Phoenix is turning out. Maybe it's underperforming but Biden is running up the score in Scottsdale and Chandler. We really don't know.

Santa Cruz and Yuma County so far have swung r from 2016 btw.

Yeah I saw. And retiree-heavy Yavapai swung D. Basically the question is whether the Latino swing is a rural thing or if we see it in big metros as well.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From Jennifer Medina:

In the latest results, Trump hit the percentage he needed to stay on track to potentially keep Arizona, but it may not hold. The next Maricopa release is not expected until Thursday night.

Jfc.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Any Georgia updates expected soonish?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

They may not be the final results yet, but Orange County city numbers for the Presidential race are quite odd and interesting. Biden is leading in heavily white South County cities like Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, and Laguna Niguel but Trump won in Westminster and Fountain Valley where he lost four years ago suggesting a swing back towards the Republicans among Vietnamese voters.

I thought something like that might happen. Very curious to see how Newport Beach ends up. Anyway, this should be good for Dems in redistricting because it makes it basically impossible to draw a GOP district in OC.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

They may not be the final results yet, but Orange County city numbers for the Presidential race are quite odd and interesting. Biden is leading in heavily white South County cities like Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, and Laguna Niguel but Trump won in Westminster and Fountain Valley where he lost four years ago suggesting a swing back towards the Republicans among Vietnamese voters.

I thought something like that might happen. Very curious to see how Newport Beach ends up. Anyway, this should be good for Dems in redistricting because it makes it basically impossible to draw a GOP district in OC.

Couldn't this have been driven by WWC as well?

Maybe. Again, questions like these need precinct results.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Martha McSally has refused to concede to Mark Kelly, despite him being over 100,000 votes ahead.

Such a nasty woman.

Can someone encourage her to run again for that seat in 2022 "cuz this years' result was rigged"? Please!

Nah, it's time for her to step aside for Kelly Ward.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...

Why?

Because I have a 50€ bet on William Hill, in which I would win 450€ if Trump ends somewhere between 240 and 268 EV.

If he wins both states, Trump drops below 240 EV ...

Nobody cares about your gambling!  God!

It's like coming on this thread to talk about your fantasy football team.  Except its worse because the rest of us have a very real, personal stake in the outcome of this election, and you're just hoping for things to happen so you can win a couple hundred euros.

I also have a very real personal stake in the outcome of this election.

I want Biden to win (just not in GA or AZ) and I want the money.

Take your outrage elsewhere plz guys.

And I have a personal stake because a Biden win in AZ and GA puts us in a much better place for the next decade as a country and that actually matters.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...

Why?

Because he bet money and doesn't want to lose it.

A non-American betting money on a US election and hoping the fascist wins is kind of disgusting. Literally hoping to profit off of other people's suffering.

I think you got something wrong here.

I bet 50€ on Trump winning 240-268 EV, because it had very good odds.

That means Trump loses the election ...

Yeah but Biden doing well in the sunbelt matters because it indicates how the runoffs and 2024 could go. The underperformance your looking for is still bad for America.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Yeah we're going to win NV although I don't love how close it is. Poor Xing though--thinking Biden would win it by 10.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

When are they gonna call GA-07. It's so obvious that Bordeaux has this.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Wow, Nevada has become the most annoying, over-dramatic state ever.

This does not come as a surprise to those of us with the misfortune of bordering it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Mississippi, Florida, maybe Nevada.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

New York oddly looks like it might swing to Trump, unless the outstanding stuff is mostly Dems.

It is.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So it looks like only Aransas, Hawaii and Utah will have swung towards Trump. Every other state had a Dem swing from 2016.

Florida?

New York oddly looks like it might swing to Trump, unless the outstanding stuff is mostly Dems.

It is. Here in NY, they don't even start counting the mail-in/absentee votes until tomorrow. We won't know the full results until a week or too. However, it's heavily from Democratic voters.

Agreed for that but it says Westchester is fully in and turnout is decently up which means it probably is in but it still swung a bit towards Trump.

I think that's probably a mistake.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Also per NYT: Trump's 16.7% margin of defeat is the worst for a Republican in Chatham County since 1948, when Dewey lost to Truman by 20.5%.

SAVANNAH JOE

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Any idea on where joes national popular vote margin will end up (in points)

Probably something like 52-47.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Beaufort County SC is showing a major improvement for Biden relative to Hillary in 2016.

Hilton Head Joe

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Perdue at 49.98% Ossoff has done it their will be 2 Georgia runoffs!

Is there just going to be an Ossoff runoff in the first year of every new presidency from here on out? Should we just go ahead and pencil one in for 2025 as well?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Perdue at 49.98% Ossoff has done it their will be 2 Georgia runoffs!

Is there just going to be an Ossoff runoff in the first year of every new presidency from here on out? Should we just go ahead and pencil one in for 2025 as well?

At least we'll get the old "he's spending his Ossoff" joke from Ben Shapiro again.

For real. These are easily going to be the most expensive senate races in American history.