2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

what I have rn:

NC - 25%
GA - 80%
AZ - 95%
NV - 99%
PA - 99%

[musicblind]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

PA way higher, GA higher, NC lower.

N Carolina - 15%
Georgia - 50%
Arizona - 75%
Nevada - 75%
Pennsylvania - 75%

?

That "feels" right (of course we don't know for sure), but I'd still lower Nevada by a little. Maybe 65% chance in NV simply because we don't know what we don't know.

[Blair]

My uninformed take on the Arizona dump (which gave Trump +10K) is that the last dump was okay for Trump but not enough to say he's now on course to win Arizona.

[Angasboy15]

PredictIt and betting markets in general have been so hilariously bullish on Trump.

[T'Chenka]

Thanks for the feedback everybody.

Based on the responses it looks like:

N CAROLINA = 5 to 15%
GEORGIA = 50 to 75%
NEVADA = 65 to 75%
ARIZONA = 70% to 95%
PENNSYLVANIA = 60% to 95%

25% spread on GA and AZ and a 35% spread on PA. Some of y'all are wrong and we'll have a clearer picture tomorrow (and hopefully a new President-Elect).

[philly09]

From Jennifer Medina:

In the latest results, Trump hit the percentage he needed to stay on track to potentially keep Arizona, but it may not hold. The next Maricopa release is not expected until Thursday night.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I posted this about 5 hours ago, and calculated that Trump needed to win the remaining 350,000 outstanding votes in Maricopa by a 60-40 margin.  That was in line with what Wasserman said as well, I believe.

With that in mind, a 51-47 result in 62,000 ballots is catastrophic for Trump.  That's way below where he needs to be.  Trump only closes the gap by 2,480 votes.  He needed to close the gap by 76,110 from Maricopa.  Now he only has approximately 288,000 left, and he needs to win 182,000 of them, or 63.2%.

That may not seem like a big change, so let me put it another way:  Just to get back to a situation where Trump only needs to win 60% of the remaining vote, he would need the next 62K ballot drop to be 75% Trump votes.

It's a big county, and anything could happen.  But I'm feeling more optimistic after this drop.

Here's what I'm seeing in Arizona:

County	% Reported	Num Votes so far	Trump margin so far	Projected Trump gain
Apache	75	20,930	-35	-2,441
Greenlee	76	3,053	+30	289
Mohave	82	94,046	+50	10,322
Coconino	82	61,560	-28	-5,885
Cochise	82	46,073	+17	1,719
Santa Cruz	82	18,137	-37	-1,473
Maricopa	83	1,713,063	-5	-175,434
Navajo	83	46,539	+7	6,672
La Paz	83	6,677	+37	506
Gila	85	25,499	+33	1,484
Graham	85	14,842	+44	1,152
Pinal	87	141,530	+13	2,749
Yuma	87	59,895	+8	715
Pima	88	465,065	-21	-13,317
Yavapai	98	133,574	+21	572

The current vote is 1,444,213 to 1,365,040.  Trump is down by 79,173 votes.

If the current margins in Arizona held steady, Trump would LOSE 172,370 votes and end up crushed in Arizona.  Obviously that's not going to happen.

But let's dive deeper.  Let's sum up all the expected diffs in the areas of the state outside of Maricopa.  That's a 3,064 gain for Trump.  He would still need 76,109 to win.  With 350,868 outstanding ballots in Maricopa, he needs 213,489 of them.  That's 60.8%.

Trump's best chance would be if he is also narrowing the Biden lead in Pima.  Because other than Mohave, the rest of the rurals really aren't going to help him much.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From Jennifer Medina:

In the latest results, Trump hit the percentage he needed to stay on track to potentially keep Arizona, but it may not hold. The next Maricopa release is not expected until Thursday night.

Jfc.

[T'Chenka]

From Jennifer Medina:

In the latest results, Trump hit the percentage he needed to stay on track to potentially keep Arizona, but it may not hold. The next Maricopa release is not expected until Thursday night.

Does anybody know if the other counties will be releasing earlier? If so, we'll know "Trump must win __ % of Maricopa to win Arizona" and we'll know based on the number whether it's realistic or not for him to win. What I'm really getting at here is: are we waiting until Thurs night to know who wins Arizona or can we deduce it with 90% certainty before that?

[philly09]

Per MSNBC, Trump not getting his 2016 margins in PA. They're hoping that Philly turnout isn't as robust as it was in 2016, and, of course, they want to stop the ballots coming from being counted.

[DaleCooper]

So clearly they're counting PA tonight but not releasing anything, at least not for a while. It's been a long time since they've updated the vote at all.

[H. Ross Peron]

They may not be the final results yet, but Orange County city numbers for the Presidential race are quite odd and interesting. Biden is leading in heavily white South County cities like Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, and Laguna Niguel but Trump won in Westminster and Fountain Valley where he lost four years ago suggesting a swing back towards the Republicans among Vietnamese voters.

[GeneralMacArthur]

From Jennifer Medina:

In the latest results, Trump hit the percentage he needed to stay on track to potentially keep Arizona, but it may not hold. The next Maricopa release is not expected until Thursday night.

What is she basing this on?  Is she going down to the precinct level?  51% is way below what Trump needed from Maricopa.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Any Georgia updates expected soonish?

[philly09]

Martha McSally has refused to concede to Mark Kelly, despite him being over 100,000 votes ahead.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

They may not be the final results yet, but Orange County city numbers for the Presidential race are quite odd and interesting. Biden is leading in heavily white South County cities like Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, and Laguna Niguel but Trump won in Westminster and Fountain Valley where he lost four years ago suggesting a swing back towards the Republicans among Vietnamese voters.

I thought something like that might happen. Very curious to see how Newport Beach ends up. Anyway, this should be good for Dems in redistricting because it makes it basically impossible to draw a GOP district in OC.

[n1240]

NC 2%
GA 60%
AZ 85%
NV 95%
PA 99%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

They may not be the final results yet, but Orange County city numbers for the Presidential race are quite odd and interesting. Biden is leading in heavily white South County cities like Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, and Laguna Niguel but Trump won in Westminster and Fountain Valley where he lost four years ago suggesting a swing back towards the Republicans among Vietnamese voters.

I thought something like that might happen. Very curious to see how Newport Beach ends up. Anyway, this should be good for Dems in redistricting because it makes it basically impossible to draw a GOP district in OC.

Couldn't this have been driven by WWC as well?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

They may not be the final results yet, but Orange County city numbers for the Presidential race are quite odd and interesting. Biden is leading in heavily white South County cities like Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, and Laguna Niguel but Trump won in Westminster and Fountain Valley where he lost four years ago suggesting a swing back towards the Republicans among Vietnamese voters.

I thought something like that might happen. Very curious to see how Newport Beach ends up. Anyway, this should be good for Dems in redistricting because it makes it basically impossible to draw a GOP district in OC.

Couldn't this have been driven by WWC as well?

Maybe. Again, questions like these need precinct results.

[GeneralMacArthur]

So I guess I'm going to wake up tomorrow morning around 10 AM EST and Biden will be declared the winner?  Looks like we'll have PA results by then?

Or if not, shouldn't Nevada be putting out some results that will make it possible for networks to call it for Biden, at which point Fox/AP would crown Biden the next president due to already having called AZ.

[n1240]

Trump's path is pretty difficult in Arizona because the more recent batches of vote have a composition that is more favorable to him. The latest returned ballots in the state have a lower GOP % and higher unaffiliated %, which makes me think it's unlikely he can sustain getting 59% of the vote in the Maricopa County batches, which is what he would need to win the state.

[philly09]

So I guess I'm going to wake up tomorrow morning around 10 AM EST and Biden will be declared the winner?  Looks like we'll have PA results by then?

Or if not, shouldn't Nevada be putting out some results that will make it possible for networks to call it for Biden, at which point Fox/AP would crown Biden the next president due to already having called AZ.

Yeppers. NV might put Uncle Joe over the top, if PA doesn't accelerate their ballot counting.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I posted this about 5 hours ago, and calculated that Trump needed to win the remaining 350,000 outstanding votes in Maricopa by a 60-40 margin.  That was in line with what Wasserman said as well, I believe.

With that in mind, a 51-47 result in 62,000 ballots is catastrophic for Trump.  That's way below where he needs to be.  Trump only closes the gap by 2,480 votes.  He needed to close the gap by 76,110 from Maricopa.  Now he only has approximately 288,000 left, and he needs to win 182,000 of them, or 63.2%.

That may not seem like a big change, so let me put it another way:  Just to get back to a situation where Trump only needs to win 60% of the remaining vote, he would need the next 62K ballot drop to be 75% Trump votes.

It's a big county, and anything could happen.  But I'm feeling more optimistic after this drop.

Here's what I'm seeing in Arizona:

County	% Reported	Num Votes so far	Trump margin so far	Projected Trump gain
Apache	75	20,930	-35	-2,441
Greenlee	76	3,053	+30	289
Mohave	82	94,046	+50	10,322
Coconino	82	61,560	-28	-5,885
Cochise	82	46,073	+17	1,719
Santa Cruz	82	18,137	-37	-1,473
Maricopa	83	1,713,063	-5	-175,434
Navajo	83	46,539	+7	6,672
La Paz	83	6,677	+37	506
Gila	85	25,499	+33	1,484
Graham	85	14,842	+44	1,152
Pinal	87	141,530	+13	2,749
Yuma	87	59,895	+8	715
Pima	88	465,065	-21	-13,317
Yavapai	98	133,574	+21	572

The current vote is 1,444,213 to 1,365,040.  Trump is down by 79,173 votes.

If the current margins in Arizona held steady, Trump would LOSE 172,370 votes and end up crushed in Arizona.  Obviously that's not going to happen.

But let's dive deeper.  Let's sum up all the expected diffs in the areas of the state outside of Maricopa.  That's a 3,064 gain for Trump.  He would still need 76,109 to win.  With 350,868 outstanding ballots in Maricopa, he needs 213,489 of them.  That's 60.8%.

Trump's best chance would be if he is also narrowing the Biden lead in Pima.  Because other than Mohave, the rest of the rurals really aren't going to help him much.

Saw a tweet recently that read something to the effect of "Trump will win Arizona! Look at how big the state is."

I can't, y'all. 

[emailking]

Thanks for the feedback everybody.

Based on the responses it looks like:

N CAROLINA = 5 to 15%
GEORGIA = 50 to 75%
NEVADA = 65 to 75%
ARIZONA = 70% to 95%
PENNSYLVANIA = 60% to 95%

25% spread on GA and AZ and a 35% spread on PA. Some of y'all are wrong and we'll have a clearer picture tomorrow (and hopefully a new President-Elect).

It's late but if the lower ends of your estimates are right I get Biden has a 87.55% chance of winning and if the upper ends are right he has 99.65% chance of winning. Assumed he wins with PA or 2 of the other states and they're independent chances at this point.

[philly09]

313,000 mail ballots in Pittsburgh, overwhelmingly for Biden. 35,000 mail ballots need to be hand reviewed, and it is believed that those were the incorrect ballots that were sent out by mistake.

Some in person votes need to be counted, but it sounds like the majority are mail ballots.