2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DaleCooper]

Wasserman is right.  There's definitely more than 130k outstanding from Philly.  Maybe that's the current number but some votes that have already been "counted" haven't been released or something.

It's implausible that every other county in PA had higher turnout except Philly, the Democratic base, which would have been heavily targeted by Dems.  Also, it's unlikely the vote would be stagnant from 2016 numbers when Philadelphia, unlike some of the other cities like Detroit, is actually growing in population and has a lot more voters now.

Even if Philadelphia is stagnant from 2016, Biden should net at least another 120-150k votes from there, right? Or am I being unrealistic?

[gf20202]

The vote dump in Maricopa was meh to bad for Trump. He hit his number, but realistically needs to do better because this was more favorable for him and really needs to find margins because Pima will offset some of the gains he will make in Maricopa.

Dem sources had the Biden lead of 80k eventually being cut to 40k and settling there and that lines up with this vote dump.

[roxas11]

Per CNN, 62K new Maricopa ballot count.

Biden: 912,585, 51%
Trump: 838,071, 47%

This is simply not good enough
This was also probably the last good batch for Trump

now mostly everything  that is left is going to come from areas that of even more pro democrat like Pima County.

[musicblind]

Per CNN, 62K new Maricopa ballot count.

Biden: 912,585, 51%
Trump: 838,071, 47%

This is simply not good enough
this was also probably the last good batch for Trump

now mostly everthing that left is going to come from areas that of even more pro democrat like Pima County.

Yeah, Harry Enten was pretty clear that, in his opinion, this wasn't enough for Trump to take Arizona due to the outstanding vote.

[lfromnj]

If Fox or AP doesn't retract it's projection as these first batches of ballots come in then I doubt they will. If they had serious doubts then they surely wouldn't wait until Trump is gaining to change their call, one wouldn't think.

They probably dont want to draw attention to it further.  They're just hoping Biden wins and then it's not an issue.

^

This i think biden is still favored there but everyone remember CA 21 from 2018 ?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Per CNN, 62K new Maricopa ballot count.

Biden: 912,585, 51%
Trump: 838,071, 47%

This is simply not good enough
this was also probably the last good batch for Trump

now mostly everthing that left is going to come from areas that of even more pro democrat like Pima County.

Yeah, Harry Enten was pretty clear that, in his opinion, this wasn't enough for Trump to take Arizona due to the outstanding vote.

How important will Cococino absentees be, likely speaking? Have we any idea of how many of them exist?

[JerryArkansas]

Wasserman is right.  There's definitely more than 130k outstanding from Philly.  Maybe that's the current number but some votes that have already been "counted" haven't been released or something.

It's implausible that every other county in PA had higher turnout except Philly, the Democratic base, which would have been heavily targeted by Dems.  Also, it's unlikely the vote would be stagnant from 2016 numbers when Philadelphia, unlike some of the other cities like Detroit, is actually growing in population and has a lot more voters now.

Even if Philadelphia is stagnant from 2016, Biden should net at least another 120-150k votes from there, right? Or am I being unrealistic?

If there is only 120k left, which I don't think it is that low,  he should net at worst 80k. 

[Blair]

Funnily enough PA aside Arizona looks like Biden is going to be saved by the hispanic vote & republicans crossing over.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

So....that latest vote drop wasn’t enough for Trump?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Funnily enough PA aside Arizona looks like Biden is going to be saved by the hispanic vote & republicans crossing over.

Can't really draw any conclusions until we see the Maricopa County map. Maybe the Latino vote in south and west Phoenix is turning out. Maybe it's underperforming but Biden is running up the score in Scottsdale and Chandler. We really don't know.

[Dr. Arch]

So....that latest vote drop wasn’t enough for Trump?

No

[philly09]

So....that latest vote drop wasn’t enough for Trump?

Probably not. Biden will increase his margins with the Dem counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So....that latest vote drop wasn’t enough for Trump?

Not in aggregate. He outperformed the % in remaining votes he needed to win, but this is expected to be the last batch of pro-Trump dumps.

[T'Chenka]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

[lfromnj]

Funnily enough PA aside Arizona looks like Biden is going to be saved by the hispanic vote & republicans crossing over.

Can't really draw any conclusions until we see the Maricopa County map. Maybe the Latino vote in south and west Phoenix is turning out. Maybe it's underperforming but Biden is running up the score in Scottsdale and Chandler. We really don't know.

Santa Cruz and Yuma County so far have swung r from 2016 btw.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

PA way higher, GA higher, NC lower.

[roxas11]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

I think biden chance of winning Georgia should be higher but other than that I think you nailed it

[Pick Up the Phone]

GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance

Isn't a Biden win in PA a near certainty at this point? And GA looks rather like 50-60% I would say.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Funnily enough PA aside Arizona looks like Biden is going to be saved by the hispanic vote & republicans crossing over.

Can't really draw any conclusions until we see the Maricopa County map. Maybe the Latino vote in south and west Phoenix is turning out. Maybe it's underperforming but Biden is running up the score in Scottsdale and Chandler. We really don't know.

Santa Cruz and Yuma County so far have swung r from 2016 btw.

Yeah I saw. And retiree-heavy Yavapai swung D. Basically the question is whether the Latino swing is a rural thing or if we see it in big metros as well.

[ObamaMichael]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

I would go:
NC 5%
Georgia 50%
Pennsylvania 60%
Arizona 60%
Nevada 75%

[T'Chenka]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

PA way higher, GA higher, NC lower.

N Carolina - 15%
Georgia - 50%
Arizona - 75%
Nevada - 75%
Pennsylvania - 75%

?

[musicblind]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

Lower NC and NV, and raise GA and PA. I feel like Arizona is about right.

[philly09]

GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance

Isn't a Biden win in PA a near certainty at this point? And GA looks rather like 50-60% I would say.

Unless there's been abysmal turnout in Philly, then yes it is.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

PA way higher, GA higher, NC lower.

N Carolina - 15%
Georgia - 50%
Arizona - 75%
Nevada - 75%
Pennsylvania - 75%

?

PredictIt has similar numbers.

[gf20202]

Okay, so how is Biden looking now state by state?

N CAROLINA - 25% chance
GEORGIA - 40% chance
PENNSYLVANIA - 60% chance
ARIZONA - 75% chance
NEVADA - 75% chance

If we are being slightly cautious, do those numbers look right? Some of y'all are paying closer attention than me, so any input is appreciated and valued.

NC -- 5% Heavy lift
GA -- 70% Trump team already talking about asking for a recount, Biden down just 23k with 60 to 90k of the left, he should win it by 10 to 30k
PA -- 95% It's over unless there is way less vote out than most people believe. Biden is crushing every return.
AZ -- 95% Trump can't win the remaining vote dumps by 58% consistently with how much Dem maricopa and Pima is out.
NV -- 85% Rurals might get Trump a few hundred but Clark should finish Trump off here.