2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 639287 times)
cp
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« Reply #8725 on: November 05, 2020, 12:12:23 AM »
Quote from: musicblind on November 05, 2020, 12:09:10 AM
Quote from: Party Advisor on November 04, 2020, 11:49:20 PM
Quote from: DaleCooper on November 04, 2020, 11:47:50 PM
Quote from: MT Treasurer on November 04, 2020, 11:45:15 PM
So to sum this up:

- Biden wins NV (by an underwhelming margin, to the right of the nation)
- Biden wins AZ
- Biden wins GA very narrowly
- Trump probably wins NC very narrowly
- PA will go down to the wire, with Biden very slightly favored?
- Trump will win AK

Trump is pretty much toast.

Senate:

- Sullivan will win AK
- Tillis will win by a point or a little less in NC, outperforming Trump
- Collins has won in ME
- McSally is toast in AZ

Meaning the Senate will be 50R/48D when all is said and done, with the GA runoffs deciding Senate control.

Is this accurate? Curious about PA in particular.

From what I can gather, Biden is heavily favored in PA at this rate. At least, that's according to the Nates and other analysts.

I'm not sure Nate Silver has any credibility left. There are probably better people you could turn to for an understanding of the remaining vote.


Nate isn't a pollster, but from what information he had, he seems to have called this right, for the most part. Certainly well enough if it were a medical trial or something.

Yeah, he did about as well as the information he was provided with could have allowed him to do. For those wishing there had been a bigger Dem/Biden win, I think some of the criticism of Silver has to do with this being the fourth general election in a row where Dem results fell short of hopes/expectations.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #8726 on: November 05, 2020, 12:12:25 AM »
Quote from: gf20202 on November 05, 2020, 12:11:39 AM
Quote from: MaxQue on November 05, 2020, 12:09:56 AM
Quote from: AndyHogan14 on November 05, 2020, 12:09:07 AM
There hasn't been an update on the Georgia SOS site in over an hour—anyone know how reliable that one source was that gave the 12k update is?

I would assume he is, he is the journalist covering the race for NBC Atlanta.
Can you link to where he said that and not just a link to the one report of votes being added, which might show a 12k margin but one that might have already been included in the count?

https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/with_replies

He stated that multiple times in the last minutes.
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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #8727 on: November 05, 2020, 12:12:32 AM »
Quote from: Make Politics Boring Again on November 05, 2020, 12:10:33 AM
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on November 05, 2020, 12:04:35 AM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 05, 2020, 12:03:51 AM
Wait, it went back up?



It... shouldn’t have.
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary

The last official update from GA SOS was at 10:54 PM, before the "26K" tweet was posted. The current total is consistent with the most recent tweet.

That was over an hour ago though. If the NBC guy is correct, I would assume that would be reflected in the next update.
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politics_king
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« Reply #8728 on: November 05, 2020, 12:12:55 AM »
Watching CNN, outside the Phoenix vote count, Trump Supporters are armed chanting "Count the Votes" and chanting "YMCA" lol
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #8729 on: November 05, 2020, 12:12:59 AM »
Quote from: Make Politics Boring Again on November 05, 2020, 12:10:33 AM
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on November 05, 2020, 12:04:35 AM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 05, 2020, 12:03:51 AM
Wait, it went back up?



It... shouldn’t have.
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary

The last official update from GA SOS was at 10:54 PM, before the "26K" tweet was posted. The current total is consistent with the most recent tweet.

How though?
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #8730 on: November 05, 2020, 12:13:01 AM »
Why do I feel Biden might come up short?.....
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pppolitics
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« Reply #8731 on: November 05, 2020, 12:13:40 AM »
Quote from: Antifacist Ghost of Ruin on November 04, 2020, 11:47:12 PM


I'm curious. Do Republicans think that she's demonstrating that her religion is a complete sham, or is she committing a federal felony?
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philly09
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« Reply #8732 on: November 05, 2020, 12:13:49 AM »
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EliteLX
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« Reply #8733 on: November 05, 2020, 12:13:55 AM »
I honestly, as a conservative and moderate pub, am not necessarily super concerned about the Biden agenda. I think he loves this country and I really am going to wish him well. I know many other centrists echo this.

I just genuinely can not say the same about his running mate's agenda or nancy pelosi.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
LVScreenssuck
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« Reply #8734 on: November 05, 2020, 12:14:06 AM »
Quote from: Buh her emails! on November 05, 2020, 12:13:01 AM
Why do I feel Biden might come up short?.....
Exhaustion and trauma
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VBM
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« Reply #8735 on: November 05, 2020, 12:14:20 AM »
How’s Georgia looking?
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #8736 on: November 05, 2020, 12:14:47 AM »
I'm still hoping Arizona stays Biden. I mean there's virtually no chance of a flip there even if the vote dumps have a significant Republican votes on them.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #8737 on: November 05, 2020, 12:14:55 AM »
Oh, the website is frozen and isn’t counting the 28K we got from Fulton.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #8738 on: November 05, 2020, 12:15:11 AM »
Quote from: Make Politics Boring Again on November 05, 2020, 12:10:33 AM
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on November 05, 2020, 12:04:35 AM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 05, 2020, 12:03:51 AM
Wait, it went back up?



It... shouldn’t have.
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary

The last official update from GA SOS was at 10:54 PM, before the "26K" tweet was posted. The current total is consistent with the most recent tweet.
Oh wait so you’re saying that account first cited the nbc guy on the ground first and then cited the SOS numbers? So either the the nbc guy jumped the gun and we are still at 31k with no new ballots or the SOS page is behind the nbc and this Twitter account just scared everyone by citing old data?
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exnaderite
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« Reply #8739 on: November 05, 2020, 12:15:33 AM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on November 05, 2020, 12:15:11 AM
Quote from: Make Politics Boring Again on November 05, 2020, 12:10:33 AM
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on November 05, 2020, 12:04:35 AM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 05, 2020, 12:03:51 AM
Wait, it went back up?



It... shouldn’t have.
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary

The last official update from GA SOS was at 10:54 PM, before the "26K" tweet was posted. The current total is consistent with the most recent tweet.
Oh wait so you’re saying that account first cited the nbc guy on the ground first and then cited the SOS numbers? So either the the nbc guy jumped the gun and we are still at 31k with no new ballots or the SOS page is behind the nbc and this Twitter account just scared everyone by citing old data?
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #8740 on: November 05, 2020, 12:16:35 AM »
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #8741 on: November 05, 2020, 12:17:11 AM »
Quote from: Make Politics Boring Again on November 05, 2020, 12:15:33 AM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on November 05, 2020, 12:15:11 AM
Quote from: Make Politics Boring Again on November 05, 2020, 12:10:33 AM
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on November 05, 2020, 12:04:35 AM
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 05, 2020, 12:03:51 AM
Wait, it went back up?



It... shouldn’t have.
https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary

The last official update from GA SOS was at 10:54 PM, before the "26K" tweet was posted. The current total is consistent with the most recent tweet.
Oh wait so you’re saying that account first cited the nbc guy on the ground first and then cited the SOS numbers? So either the the nbc guy jumped the gun and we are still at 31k with no new ballots or the SOS page is behind the nbc and this Twitter account just scared everyone by citing old data?


Oh so the latter it is. Sweet 👍
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musicblind
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« Reply #8742 on: November 05, 2020, 12:17:19 AM »
Quote from: politics_king on November 05, 2020, 12:01:23 AM
Chris Cuomo & Don Lemon on CNN now, they might end up calling the election. LOL! That'll be great, these two banter way too much with each other.

I LOVE their banter!
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #8743 on: November 05, 2020, 12:17:46 AM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 05, 2020, 12:16:35 AM


Is that enough to flip?
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philly09
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« Reply #8744 on: November 05, 2020, 12:18:03 AM »
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #8745 on: November 05, 2020, 12:18:31 AM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 05, 2020, 12:17:46 AM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 05, 2020, 12:16:35 AM


Is that enough to flip?
Biden should narrowly flip Georgia. there might be outstanding votes in a few other counties as well and again this is just one source
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #8746 on: November 05, 2020, 12:18:45 AM »
Quote from: Buh her emails! on November 05, 2020, 12:13:01 AM
Why do I feel Biden might come up short?.....

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/post-traumatic-stress-disorder/symptoms-causes/syc-20355967
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #8747 on: November 05, 2020, 12:19:31 AM »
Damn it, Biden has certainly narrowly lost Georgia.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #8748 on: November 05, 2020, 12:19:43 AM »
Still nothing?

I’m worried this flips the other way Sad
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philly09
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« Reply #8749 on: November 05, 2020, 12:19:49 AM »
From CNN: Fulton County will keep counting until they are done.
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