UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Suburbia]

Happy Boxing Day!!!

[Continential]

Happy Boxing Day!!!

Is today the 26th for you bronz?

[Suburbia]

Happy Boxing Day!!!

Is today the 26th for you bronz?

In an hour, yes.

Americans don't celebrate Boxing Day, but we know of it and we watch Premier League matches.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1474808797138931715

As usual, some of the individual MRP seat projections are a bit hard to believe.

[YL]

As usual, some of the individual MRP seat projections are a bit hard to believe.

The most striking thing is how badly it shows the Lib Dems as doing; probably this is mainly because it doesn't pick up tactical voting for them.  This actually saves the Tories in quite a few seats they should lose on these figures.

There are a few other oddities, but some of the slighly surprising seats it shows Labour as winning are indeed seats I think Labour are going to be close in if they're close to winning a majority: the Bournemouth seats, York Outer, Rushcliffe and so on.

It also shows Labour as doing surprisingly well in Scotland.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As usual, some of the individual MRP seat projections are a bit hard to believe.

The most striking thing is how badly it shows the Lib Dems as doing; probably this is mainly because it doesn't pick up tactical voting for them.  This actually saves the Tories in quite a few seats they should lose on these figures.

There are a few other oddities, but some of the slighly surprising seats it shows Labour as winning are indeed seats I think Labour are going to be close in if they're close to winning a majority: the Bournemouth seats, York Outer, Rushcliffe and so on.

It also shows Labour as doing surprisingly well in Scotland.

The map gives me 2005 vibes for some reason...

[Blair]

This would worry me if I was in No.10- my pet theory since September is that the Universal Credit cut & the tax rising budget are all all causing pain and will only get worse for the Government. Add in the rise in fuel bills

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/23/energy-bills-could-rise-by-50-amid-national-crisis-of-soaring-uk-prices

[CumbrianLefty]

It also shows Labour as doing surprisingly well in Scotland.

Should there seem to be a real chance of Labour winning in England/Wales at the next GE, it is very likely that will affect Scotland - however much polling may seem to suggest that is unlikely right now.

[mileslunn]

Survation also has an MRP https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10346133/New-warning-Boris-Johnson-poll-claims-risks-losing-majority.html which while still only a Hung parliament, shows similar swings to the Focaldata one.  Seems though uniform swing doesn't really work here and instead using last 5 election average more accurate.  A lot of the heavy leave areas seem to be swinging the hardest against Tories.  One reason is many voted Tory just to get Brexit done and since done now swinging back.  Other is the Christmas party smacked of elitism so causing more backlash in working class areas than more affluent areas. 

That being said it is just a snapshot and I suspect either Johnson recovers or if he doesn't (and his approval rating #'s are horrible, even worse than Gordon Brown or John Major were at time of defeat I believe) party dumps him and choses new leader.  Rishni Sunak seems fairly popular so my guess is he would likely be next leader, but may Liz Truss.

Interesting thing about Johnson is he has never faced a moderate Labour leader.  All three of his victories where he won in Labour strongholds were against someone from the Loony left (Livingston in London and Corbyn for UK) so quite possible many centrists plugged their nose and voted for him since Labour alternative was too extreme.  Keir Starmer seems like a dull boring type who doesn't excite people, but doesn't frighten them either.  So if government popular, he won't get party very far.  But if unpopular, he can capitalize on it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Online left wingers already rubbing their hands about how Sunak will "crush" Starmer.

They're maybe Rishi's biggest fans now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sunak was entirely unknown when he was suddenly elevated to his present post after Javid quit after losing a power struggle with Dominic Cummings (remember him? How time flies) and then suddenly became a major public figure with the announcement of the furlough programme during the Great Lockdown. Even though he had actually been pressured into making it more generous than he had intended, this made him a very popular figure overnight. This was then followed by over a year of extraordinarily fawning media coverage (including from the BBC!) which contributed further to this. Since then his numbers have been slowly deflating like a balloon. It is also the case that the reality of his politics (he is a tediously 'dry' fiscal martinet, not unlike Osborne though less extreme) contradict quite markedly with the reasons for his relative (declining) popularity. A lot of people who voted Conservative in 2017 and 2019 but had not done so before or for a long time would probably not like the implications of this, but then Sunak would almost certainly try to pivot to yet another Grand Strategy. The question there is whether there's enough fuel left in the tank to execute such a manoeuvre successfully.

[Blair]

https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1475507536874938372

On the subject of Sunak I would be worried about this; he is still the 'break glass in case of emergency' choice if Boris quit tomorrow but the longer he is in the post the harder it becomes for him to become Prime Minister as Chancellor- especially if the economy continues to do poorly.

It's very hard for the Chancellor to become Prime Minister if the reason for the vacancy is that the project is collapsing; it's why Osborne didn't get it in 2016 & it's why Brown didn't want to collapse TB in the early 2000s. If you're ditching the PM because his political project is failing then why go to someone who has played a huge part in it- I guess this comes back to the argument you're seeing about whether the current problem is the PM himself or because the Government as a whole is unfit.

On the second I would say the decisions that have proved the worse over the last 18 months- cutting £1,000 from UC, scrapping HS2, delaying the October 20 lockdown & raising national insurance have all come from the Treasury. I would not be shocked if we see 'Levelling up' essentially ruined by the lack of funding from the Treasury.

Additionally I know one swallow doesn't make a summer but Sunak's budget & his subsequent media performance was pretty dreadful too.

I did wonder if Sunak has wondered about quitting to the backbenchers over covid and just play that waiting game- it worked out fine for Boris in 2019.

Online left wingers already rubbing their hands about how Sunak will "crush" Starmer.

They're maybe Rishi's biggest fans now.

Yes it's interesting how the narrative has gone from 'Labour are awful & can't win' to 'Labour might be leading in the polls but it's all irrelevant because....''. I don't think that there's been a huge change in the last three months for Labour (other than a sharper response to certain events) but equally it was stupid for John McDonnell to set the public test that Labour need to overtake the Tories in the poll to justify Keir remaining leader.

 

[afleitch]

Sunak is wonkish enough, and not a former Cameronite turned weird populist culture warrior to be a suitable 'emergency' PM for the Tories.

He made it to that high position just five years after being first elected which is extraordinary. He has no place to go but leader/PM or leave Parliament. I think this works in his favour.

[morgieb]

Online left wingers already rubbing their hands about how Sunak will "crush" Starmer.

They're maybe Rishi's biggest fans now.

It's funny that the most deranged anti-Starmer people seem to be the Hard Left rather than the Right. Even in America where there's plenty of anti-Dem lefties the biggest haters of Democrats are still Republicans.....

[Suburbia]

I really don't think that some British Tory activists would want a nonwhite PM yet..........

Will UKIP react and all the other far-far-right in negative terms?

Can Sunak relate to the British commoner like Johnson can?

He seems too elite, too blue blood.

[mileslunn]

I really don't think that some British Tory activists would want a nonwhite PM yet..........

Will UKIP react and all the other far-far-right in negative terms?

Can Sunak relate to the British commoner like Johnson can?

He seems too elite, too blue blood.

Not sure his race will be a huge factor but maybe.  More he is a Thatcherite economically which could help shore up support in posh areas in south, but may hurt him in the Northern red wall seats.  I've heard he wants to get rid of the additional rate for taxes and considering every Brit is having a 1.25% tax hike next year, not sure giving a tax break to those making over 150,000 pounds would go over well even if there are good reasons for it.  On other hand he has largely stayed out of trouble and being younger as well as from North himself could work in his favour.

[Suburbia]

I really don't think that some British Tory activists would want a nonwhite PM yet..........

Will UKIP react and all the other far-far-right in negative terms?

Can Sunak relate to the British commoner like Johnson can?

He seems too elite, too blue blood.

Not sure his race will be a huge factor but maybe.  More he is a Thatcherite economically which could help shore up support in posh areas in south, but may hurt him in the Northern red wall seats.  I've heard he wants to get rid of the additional rate for taxes and considering every Brit is having a 1.25% tax hike next year, not sure giving a tax break to those making over 150,000 pounds would go over well even if there are good reasons for it.  On other hand he has largely stayed out of trouble and being younger as well as from North himself could work in his favour.

Also, it would be ironic if the Tories----a conservative, rich, male-centered party sees 3 female leaders since 1975 (Thatcher, May, and Truss/Patel) while the progressive party, the Labour Party has had man after man after man. Working class men globally lean conservative, voting against their "interests".......

Since women globally are more breadwinners than ever before, shouldn't the Labor Party turn to a female leader for the first time if Starmer implodes? Since conservative parties are the "daddy" parties and progressive parties are the "mommy" party?

[Never Made it to Graceland]

I really don't think that some British Tory activists would want a nonwhite PM yet..........

Will UKIP react and all the other far-far-right in negative terms?

Can Sunak relate to the British commoner like Johnson can?

He seems too elite, too blue blood.

Not sure his race will be a huge factor but maybe.  More he is a Thatcherite economically which could help shore up support in posh areas in south, but may hurt him in the Northern red wall seats.  I've heard he wants to get rid of the additional rate for taxes and considering every Brit is having a 1.25% tax hike next year, not sure giving a tax break to those making over 150,000 pounds would go over well even if there are good reasons for it.  On other hand he has largely stayed out of trouble and being younger as well as from North himself could work in his favour.

Also, it would be ironic if the Tories----a conservative, rich, male-centered party sees 3 female leaders since 1975 (Thatcher, May, and Truss/Patel) while the progressive party, the Labour Party has had man after man after man. Working class men globally lean conservative, voting against their "interests".......

Since women globally are more breadwinners than ever before, shouldn't the Labor Party turn to a female leader for the first time if Starmer implodes? Since conservative parties are the "daddy" parties and progressive parties are the "mommy" party?

You have outdone yourself.

[WD]

I really don't think that some British Tory activists would want a nonwhite PM yet..........

Will UKIP react and all the other far-far-right in negative terms?

Can Sunak relate to the British commoner like Johnson can?

He seems too elite, too blue blood.

Not sure his race will be a huge factor but maybe.  More he is a Thatcherite economically which could help shore up support in posh areas in south, but may hurt him in the Northern red wall seats.  I've heard he wants to get rid of the additional rate for taxes and considering every Brit is having a 1.25% tax hike next year, not sure giving a tax break to those making over 150,000 pounds would go over well even if there are good reasons for it.  On other hand he has largely stayed out of trouble and being younger as well as from North himself could work in his favour.

Also, it would be ironic if the Tories----a conservative, rich, male-centered party sees 3 female leaders since 1975 (Thatcher, May, and Truss/Patel) while the progressive party, the Labour Party has had man after man after man. Working class men globally lean conservative, voting against their "interests".......

Since women globally are more breadwinners than ever before, shouldn't the Labor Party turn to a female leader for the first time if Starmer implodes? Since conservative parties are the "daddy" parties and progressive parties are the "mommy" party?

what

[CumbrianLefty]

Online left wingers already rubbing their hands about how Sunak will "crush" Starmer.

They're maybe Rishi's biggest fans now.

It's funny that the most deranged anti-Starmer people seem to be the Hard Left rather than the Right. Even in America where there's plenty of anti-Dem lefties the biggest haters of Democrats are still Republicans.....

A lot of that is down to the unpleasantness of Labour's forever wars in recent years tbf - it never got as bad as that in (for instance) the US Democrats (partly because of the different way that party is set up - meaning that "capturing" the party apparatus never has the totemic importance it does to both of Labour's wings) And *some* on the anti-Corbyn wing barely hid their desire for a Tory win in 2019.

[Conservatopia]

Lest we forget: UKIP were (briefly) the first semi-relevant party to have a "nonwhite" leader.

[afleitch]

Lest we forget: UKIP were (briefly) the first semi-relevant party to have a "nonwhite" leader.

Though to be honest, I'm not entirely sure that I wasn't UKIP leader for a hot second.

[Conservatopia]

Lest we forget: UKIP were (briefly) the first semi-relevant party to have a "nonwhite" leader.

Though to be honest, I'm not entirely sure that I wasn't UKIP leader for a hot second.

In the future, everyone will be UKIP leader for 15 minutes.

[Cassius]

Sunak may be associated with the ‘treasury view’ of the public finances, but he’s still by far the best candidate to succeed Johnson. The rest of the senior cabinet ministers are hardly on what one might tentatively describe as the ‘economically populist’ wing of the party (if such a wing can even be said to exist), so I’m not sure if there’s much in the argument that Sunak is too far to the right on economic policy. Meanwhile, at the very least he isn’t a loose cannon (like Truss), voter repellent (Gove, Patel, Raab etc) or a non-entity (most of the rest of the cabinet) and generally speaking comes across as being on top of his brief and as a nice, decent family man (unlike Johnson). Given that whenever we change the PM we usually end up with someone very different to his or her predecessor, I think the latter factors augur well for Sunak to be the best replacement for Johnson.

[afleitch]

Oops

https://mobile.twitter.com/Cammy2487/status/1476509218022866946