UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Conservatopia]

Many in the party really dislike the job Milling is doing.  Her ham-fisted attempts to land blows on Starmer are a joke and just make things worse for us (the Tories).  Keir Starmer (I hate to say it) is hitting all the right buttons with his messaging and overall temperament.  We are hitting all the wrong buttons and it seems the only reason we remain ahead in the polls is Labour's still shot brand.

So much of the daily crises for the Tories are a result of terrible PR and messaging.  It's also blatantly clear that Boris is still suffering from some kind of long Covid meaning we have all the drawbacks of Boris with none of the (admittedly overhyped) benefits.

I think he has lost a huge amount of support here on the right/far-right of the party that he will really struggle to regain and that his support in the centre won't make up for.  The mood is such that I think the outcome of next year's local and devolved elections will determine the number of letters a certain MP for Altrincham has in his possession...

The problem is of course that there aren't any very credible contenders to replace him.  That being said a couple of members/supporters on the right are thinking Patel or Raab might do a good job.  Of course it's all rather academic while the pandemic is in full swing.

[Conservatopia]

Corbyn suspended from Labour over EHRC report.

[Conservatopia]

Corbyn suspended from Labour over EHRC report.

FWIW this is inaccurate, the suspension is because of his reaction to it.

You are correct yes sorry.

I wonder what impact this has on the Labour NEC elections?

[Conservatopia]

As much as I (and others on the right) wish Johnson gone it will only happen if it looks like we will lose the next General Election.  Don't forget that during the omnishambles in 2012 Cameron was criticized harshly but there was still no real challenge to his position.

And more than 50 MPs need to write letters before a challenge takes place.  We are at about 11 at the very most and 2 at least.

I don't see Johnson leaving unwillingly before 2024.

[Conservatopia]

I guess "Scottish Nationalist Party" is to Conservatives what "Democrat Party" is to Republicans.

Correct.  Both are a bit silly in my opinion but both achieve their desired reaction.

[Conservatopia]

I guess "Scottish Nationalist Party" is to Conservatives what "Democrat Party" is to Republicans.

Correct.  Both are a bit silly in my opinion but both achieve their desired reaction.

The SNP one actually makes sense by linking them to a generally right-wing ideology. The ‘Democrat Party’ thing is just totally inane.

The Democrat one is just petty trolling.
The SNP one smacks of a Tory Brain idea to discredit the SNP and/or make them seem hypocritical.

[Conservatopia]

I also feel that the whole 'Democrat Party' thing has turned into a bit of a shibboleth on the American online right.  Like "wow look at me owning the libs with my poor grammar!"  #LiberalTears

I'm sure saying that Trump got "75 million" votes (as opposed to 74m) will be the next right-wing shibboleth in the US.

And I hate the SNP and the whole idea of Scottirsh independence more than anybody but thinking that saying "Scottish Nationalist Party" will hurt them is rather Dom dumb.

[Conservatopia]

And also saw it as a way of Gidiot giving Labour people "responsibility without power".

Ultimately the role has become one that is as powerful as one chooses to make it.
See the power of Street and Burnham compared to Bowles.

They're a stupid idea though because they're a half measure towards federalism.  Personally I think Canadian-style* federalism centred on the 12 Nations and Regions would be the best solution but I guess we each have our One Weird Trick to Solve the Problem.

* Why do all ideas come from former colonies?

[Conservatopia]

That actually seems like... a pretty damn huge scandal?

I don't think the old lady is sleeping well tonight.

Honestly I think it will blow over before the end of the week.  For a number of reasons:

1) As with many royal "scandals" the mainstream press and major parties won't comment too much about it
2) The palace pushed back quickly and quite hard and I expect many will consider the matter to be closed
3) It can't really be blamed on any particular political party
4) Labour attacking the queen would be terrible PR after last week's struggles
5) Ordinary people mostly don't care

[Conservatopia]

https://www.buxtonadvertiser.co.uk/news/politics/council/whaley-bridge-election-battle-looms-between-ruth-george-and-edwina-currie-3131467

A blast from the past...

[Conservatopia]

Cressie has no friends on the right so and the fact that it would be Patel picking the replacement means that she is unlikely to find much support amongst the Tories.  I think her days may be numbered.

[Conservatopia]

More accurately perhaps, perfectly peaceful protest hijacked by trustifarian dicks?

Well possibly, but there were rather a lot of people involved and these types of protests do have a habit of being hijacked by ‘outsiders’ don’t they?

https://twitter.com/GeoffNorcott/status/1373922545402056706

It's Bristol, so a lot of those trustafarian dicks will be local anyway.

It's the limestone in the water that makes them behave like that.  Calcifies the mind.

[Conservatopia]

YouGov have a poll out giving the Tories a 14-point lead.  It's a massive outlier and was conducted before the lobbying scandal cut through but is noteworthy nonetheless.  More recently conducted polling suggests that the lobbying scandal is cutting through with the public so expect Tory vote share to drop a bit over the next week or until Labour give the Tories a free kick by making a gaffe of some description. 

[Conservatopia]

It slipped under the radar because of all the football drama but the Lord Speaker election results were announced yesterday.

Labour's John McFall beat out John Alderdice (LD) and Dianne Hayter (Lab).  No Tories ran as the position unofficially rotates between the two main parties and the incumbent speaker is a Tory.

[Conservatopia]

McFall is perhaps best known for his role in the financial crash.

Alderdice came surprisingly close.  I suppose it's possible the NI situation may have helped him.  He is a former leader of the Alliance Party (Northern Ireland LD affiliate).

Hayter is from the right of Labour and according to Wikipedia:
was sacked as Shadow Brexit Minister for making what Labour called "deeply offensive" remarks at a Labour First group meeting, asserting that the party's leadership was not open to external views and comparing them to being "in a bunker" like the "last days of Hitler".

[Conservatopia]

McFall is perhaps best known for his role in the financial crash.

Alderdice came surprisingly close.  I suppose it's possible the NI situation may have helped him.  He is a former leader of the Alliance Party (Northern Ireland LD affiliate).

Hayter is from the right of Labour and according to Wikipedia:
was sacked as Shadow Brexit Minister for making what Labour called "deeply offensive" remarks at a Labour First group meeting, asserting that the party's leadership was not open to external views and comparing them to being "in a bunker" like the "last days of Hitler".

You’ve just changed your political matrix score, Conservatopia, to become even crazier

Nah I'm still your friendly neighborhood Patel-ite.

^ What did Lord McFall do in the crash?

Not a lot - that's the problem.

To be fair he wasn't really to blame but they say perception is reality.

Basically he was chair of the committee overseeing banking and some people say he didn't do a great deal before the crash to investigate what some saw as warning signs.  He was very zealous in the aftermath however.

[Conservatopia]

Nah I'm still your friendly neighborhood Patel-ite.

The two terms do not compute...I shouldn't move to Glos.

Not a lot - that's the problem.

To be fair he wasn't really to blame but they say perception is reality.

Basically he was chair of the committee overseeing banking and some people say he didn't do a great deal before the crash to investigate what some saw as warning signs.  He was very zealous in the aftermath however.

Ah, nothing that should disqualify him as Lord Speaker. Who did you support? Alderdice seems like a decent fellow. One wonders what makes a 'good' (Lord) Speaker.

You don't have to move to Glos and the West but you'd be a fool not to.

Best cider in the country, summer all year round, Welsh beaches only an hour away, picturesque villages, only one awful city (Bristol), balanced by one awesome city (Bath), home of Brunel who invented basically everything and whose visage greets you on every street, fantastic walks and scenery in the Cotswolds, the beautiful smell of manure, drystone walls, the Great Western Railway and a hilarious pirate accent.  What's not to like?

I supported McFall but unlike in the Commons Speaker election I didn't really care a great deal who won.  The Lord Speaker is even less of a political role than Commons Speaker.  No bellowing "order" and such like.  Alderdice being a Lib Dem hurt him because many in the two main parties can't countenance a Lib Dem being speaker.

[Conservatopia]

I supported McFall but unlike in the Commons Speaker election I didn't really care a great deal who won.  The Lord Speaker is even less of a political role than Commons Speaker.  No bellowing "order" and such like.  Alderdice being a Lib Dem hurt him because many in the two main parties can't countenance a Lib Dem being speaker.

Makes sense. Who did you support in the Commons speakership election? It was interesting that a Labour MP should be easily chosen in a landslide Tory House. I don't really know what the distinctions were between them all.

The Speaker election was before the general election bear in mind.

I supported Hoyle (Lab).  Many Tories backed him over Bryant (Lab) as they worried Bryant could be more inclined to be partisan.  Bryant was also a proud Remainer whilst Hoyle has never given any clues which way he voted in the referendum.  Hoyle has long been a highly respected MP and enjoyed broad support across the House.  This can be seen in the list of nominations with rightwingers such as Charles Walker, arch remainers like Joan Ryan and Brexit-curious Labourites like Caroline Flint all backing him.  After years of Bercow (a Tory) stymying them Tories weren't really too bothered to support an MP from the other side.  Leigh was the candidate of the Tory Right but I saw no sense in backing him because he clearly wasn't going to win.  Laing is also a Brexiteer Tory and came quite close but I was never too impressed with her performances as Deputy Speaker.

[Conservatopia]

I very much think that the flat story is the one most likely to cause damage here...

It tends to be the drip-drip of repeated stories that really does the damage, but I agree that one could be bad for him, depending on what actually happened and how much gets out.

As someone who has never got the appeal of Johnson, though, I'm not in the best position to judge what will get people who like him to change their minds.

I certainly couldn't claim to speak for all Tory voters but methinks this could well be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  As you say it tends to be the drip-drip that erodes support but this "bodies" comment of his (of course he said it) is just the thing needed to focus everything on the mishandled lockdowns last year and paint the Tories as the cruel and uncaring "nasty party" again.

Why do people care so much about his flat? The No 10 and No 11 flats seem to be in a perennial state of disrepair. Cummings did say his plans might be illegal though.

Nobody cares about the flat - it's just that Boris isn't being transparent about where the money is coming from.  That's what is damaging.

Those who read London Playbook (surely most of you?) will have noticed that there is also the chance of the Super League affair coming back to bite the govt.  Some are saying that the govt privately greenlighted it only to back track when they realised how the wind blew.

[Conservatopia]

The DUP is having an internal struggle at the moment.  It appears that a majority of MLAs and MPs have signed a letter if no-confidence in Arlene Foster and a number of councillors have called on her and Deputy Nigel Dodds to resign.  So far Foster is trying to face down the threat and in fact it isn't clear who exactly is behind it.

There are a multitude of reasons why the membership are discontented with them but some that stand out are the DUP's failure to prevent the rolling back of Northern Ireland's socially conservative abortion and SSM laws plus a noticeable decline in support for the party.

Both Foster and Commons Leader Jeffrey Donaldson are former UUP members but despite that are not seen as moderates in the party.

The problem is there is no obvious successor to Foster.  Donaldson is not an MLA and beyond that there aren't really any big names who could save the party.

[Conservatopia]

Arlene Foster is resigning as DUP leader and First Minister.

Gavin Robinson is the frontrunner to succeed her.  He would be their youngest ever leader.  He is seen as to the left of the party.

Edwin Poots will probably be the fundie wing's candidate.

[Conservatopia]

The issue with Robinson, aside from the obvious fact that he is far too normal to be selected by whatever ominous smoke filled room passes for the DUP's internal democracy, is he would presumably have to resign his seat and the Alliance could very easily gain it in a by election.

Yes.  This applies to Donaldson too although Lagan Valley is safer.

Personally I think it is Poots to lose.  Could be worse - Ian Paisley Jr could run...

I don't think the DUP have ever actually held a leadership election so it will most likely be stitched up behind the scenes a la Armin Laschet.

[Conservatopia]

Often a disproportionately high amount of politically engaged, reasonably young, educated, middle-class people sign up to YouGov and then wonder why they don't get polled so much. As someone who falls into that bracket I can say that most of the questions I was asked were about things like television viewing habits - unlike some of the other pollsters they frequently survey broader things like that for whoever might want to find that out.

Odd that you seem to get non-political questions.  YouGov, Survation and Opinium seem to just about only give me voting intention polls.

[Conservatopia]

Steve Aiken has resigned as UUP leader.  He was seen as a liberal and he moved away from the idea of unionist pacts with the DUP and co-operation with the Tories in Great Britain.

For those who don't know the UUP was effectively the NI branch of the Conservatives until the Sunningdale Agreement severed the links between them.  Since then they have co-operated to varying degrees and briefly formed a disastrous alliance from 2009-2010.

Aiken basically moved away from having any links with the Tories while many Tories (particularly on the right) moved towards closer collaboration with the DUP, exacerbating the trend.

From my perspective I hope whoever is the new UUP leader will re-orientate to an ever closer union with us in the Conservative Party.

[Conservatopia]

The Daily Express seems to be the mouthpiece of Boris Johnson. I have not seen a single critical headline from them. By contrast, the Daily Mail is quite anti-lockdown.

It's usually the Daily Mail which has massive quotes from Priti Patel on the front page; today it's the Sunday Express: 'And Priti Patel says 'we're coming after the criminals''.

(I don't read these 'newspapers'; I get their headlines from the BBC.)

Surprisingly the Torygraph (which I subscribe to) has lost its love for Boris since the last election.  Probably because he and Farage no longer write columns for them.  Instead they cheerlead Starmer's fight against "Trots".