COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How are today's numbers?

Slightly better than the last few days, but it’s a weekend, so who knows?

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/18 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>

4/5: <Sunday>

• Cases: 336,327 (+24,970 | Δ Change: ↓27.40% | Σ Increase: ↑8.02%)
• Deaths: 9,605 (+1,153 | Δ Change: ↑8.67% | Σ Increase: ↑13.64%)

4/6:

• Cases: 366,112 (+29,785 | Δ Change: ↑19.28% | Σ Increase: ↑8.86%)
• Deaths: 10,859 (+1,254 | Δ Change: ↑8.76% | Σ Increase: ↑13.06%)

4/7:

• Cases: 399,937 (+33,825 | Δ Change: ↑13.56% | Σ Increase: ↑13.56%)
• Deaths: 12,813 (+1,954 | Δ Change: ↑55.82% | Σ Increase: ↑9.02%)

4/8:

• Cases: 434,698 (+34,761 | Δ Change: ↑2.77% | Σ Increase: ↑8.69%)
• Deaths: 14,787 (+1,974 | Δ Change: ↑1.02% | Σ Increase: ↑15.41%)

4/9:

• Cases: 468,566 (+33,868 | Δ Change: ↓2.57% | Σ Increase: ↑7.79%)
• Deaths: 16,691 (+1,904 | Δ Change: ↓3.55% | Σ Increase: ↑12.88%)

4/10:

• Cases: 502,318 (+33,752 | Δ Change: ↓0.34% | Σ Increase: ↑7.20%)
• Deaths: 18,725 (+2,034 | Δ Change: ↑6.83% | Σ Increase: ↑12.19%)

4/11:

• Cases: 532,879 (+30,561 | Δ Change: ↓9.45% | Σ Increase: ↑6.08%)
• Deaths: 20,577 (+1,852 | Δ Change: ↓8.95% | Σ Increase: ↑9.89%)

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17 (Yesterday): <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18 (Today):

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

[Meclazine for Israel]

The worst part about the lack of testing is that it is possible that the strategy we are currently deploying is the opposite of what we should be doing, and we might never know it.

Because we don’t have widespread population test, we have neither a good idea of the contagiousness of the virus nor it’s lethality.  And it is likely that these two factors are highly negatively correlated with each other.

If it turns out the virus is both much more contagious and much less lethal than our original estimates (as the little bit of recent evidence tends to point to), we should not be doing general lockdowns.  We should be aiming for herd immunity in a controlled way that limits restrictions to vulnerable populations and places where the health care system, while encouraging the spread of the virus among the young and healthy.  

This is further suggested by the fact that while our models seem to be doing a decent job projecting the upward trajectory of case and death rates, they are failing with respect to two other factors.  First, they dramatically overestimated the need for hospital capacity at peak levels.  And second, they dramatically overestimated the rate of decline once the peak is reached.   These failures indicate that the general lockdowns are both less necessary and less effective than initially anticipated.

This is slightly misguided by your central argument of lack of testing. The media is going nuts about 'testing'.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-april-17-2020/

Most of what you are asking for will be in the datasets from testing already underway and completed. In terms of spot-testing, Dr Birx has a program of getting data from the broader community now which is already underway.

Dr Fauci said that testing is not the issue yesterday:

"the emphasis that we’ve been hearing is essentially, “testing is everything,” and it isn’t."

He went on to say (in the nicest possible way) that people are imagining that this is the real issue when it is purely in their head.

And Dr Birx has reiterated many times at the Daily Briefing that the current testing levels correlate well with hospitalisation and mortality rates in areas where it is being conducted. That is, she is saying that lack of testing is not the problem here.

Dr Anthony Fauci went on to say that:

"we will have and there will be enough tests to allow us to take this country safely through phase one."

Both Dr Fauci and Dr Birx gave the distinct feeling that the testing coverage is appropriate now, and that a lot of people, fueled by the media, feel as though testing is underneath where it should be.

In fact, the opposite of "not enough testing" is true based on comments made by the Admiral GIROIR at the same briefing:

"This is, sort of, the radar — the weather radar that it would be out there — that we’re not testing people who are symptomatic.  We want to do testing on people who are asymptomatic because you can have asymptomatic carriage.  You know, you could have this virus and shed it, and not have symptoms or only mild symptoms."

"We have 200,000 people who need a diagnosis.  To make that diagnosis, we want to test 2 million.  Okay?  So that’s 2 million.  We’re going to contact trace with a million.  And let’s just throw you a fudge factor of about 25 percent on that; so that’s 4 million.  And we have this background testing of about 400 — of about 400,000 per month."

And I want to tell you that’s really how it adds up, and that’s where we are.  Right now, we’re doing about 1 million to 1.2 million per week.

So the Admiral is saying that the current testing regime covers all the necessary diagnosis of infected patients, the contract traces of those 200,000 people to 5 friends each.

Then there is more than enough community spot testing or background testing over over 400,000 people per month.

4.8 million tests per month are being performed for a total required capacity of only around 2-3 million.

[Grassroots]

I believe the massive alarmist-driven desperation for more tests is going to result in us eventually producing a more than adequate amount of tests, similar to the original hysteria paving way to us flattening the curve faster than anticipated.

Fear is underrated. In fact, fear is necessary.

[Sbane]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1251272475230580737

I'm plenty disappointed with Trump's performance with the crisis, but the fact that NowThis is using "Trump" instead of "government" is all you need to know.

He didn't take this seriously enough and the bureaucratic mess with the lack of focus on testing and no effort to procure PPE kept simmering for a few weeks too long before the white house got its act together. That is a critical mistake when fighting the pandemic. And now he is trying to have the states fight for testing resources. That is the wrong approach. The feds should have the tests and supply them to the states/regions which need them at any given moment.

[Storr]

Angry Boomers protesting in Wisconsin.

F-cking dumb-ss dipsh-ts.

Neckbeard literally says "the Silent Majority rising up". I swear the 60s never truly ended.

[Grassroots]

April 18
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 3 states (-3)
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states (-)
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 26 states (+1)
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 6 states (+2)
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states (-)

[JA]

Very powerful Biden ad hitting Trump's response to the virus:

https://twitter.com/Politidope/status/1251609321353490433

Ah, I see we are all diving down the rabbit hole of blaming China and making this a "I hate Chinese more" d*ck measuring competition.

Will it be effective though? Yes. Will it be worth it in the end?...

[Sbane]

The Chinese should have contained this and this was a failure on their part.

[Calthrina950]

Trump aside, it astonishes me the extent to which the coronavirus pandemic is merely reinforcing polarization and partisanship. This is particularly true here in Colorado, where Democrats have praised, and largely approve of, Polis' response, and Republicans are opposed. At my job today, I overheard conversations in the break room regarding that response. Frustrations were expressed about the shutdown, and the need for the economy to be reopened was something that I heard frequently. Someone also made a joke about Polis' "enforcers", of the stay-at-home order, and expressed anger over the possibility of a mandatory mask requirement being imposed.

I also heard some more insidious comments, a reminder to me of how stereotypes and racism have been fueled by this crisis. Two other coworkers of mines were having a conversation about this story: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/melania-trump-coronavirus-lockdown-puzzle_n_5e9ac046c5b6ea335d5be8c7. Melania Trump tweeted out a "White House puzzle" for people to complete while under quarantine. Critics responded to this by denouncing her husband's response to the pandemic and criticizing her for "tone-deafness", as people are losing their lives.

My coworkers were angry about the response, and one woman said that if "Big Mama Michelle Obama" had done something similar to Melania, she would have been praised. I found this term to be offensive (as a black person), and could barely contain myself from interjecting into their conversation. I'm well aware of the negative things which have been said about Michelle Obama-calling her a "monkey" and everything else in between, and it astounds me how people revert to such images when confronted with a controversy.

[jimrtex]

April 18
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 3 states (-3)
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states (-)
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 26 states (+1)
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 6 states (+2)
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states (-)

What time interval are you using? What are the quantitative measurements you are using?

[Badger]

Trump aside, it astonishes me the extent to which the coronavirus pandemic is merely reinforcing polarization and partisanship. This is particularly true here in Colorado, where Democrats have praised, and largely approve of, Polis' response, and Republicans are opposed. At my job today, I overheard conversations in the break room regarding that response. Frustrations were expressed about the shutdown, and the need for the economy to be reopened was something that I heard frequently. Someone also made a joke about Polis' "enforcers", of the stay-at-home order, and expressed anger over the possibility of a mandatory mask requirement being imposed.

I also heard some more insidious comments, a reminder to me of how stereotypes and racism have been fueled by this crisis. Two other coworkers of mines were having a conversation about this story: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/melania-trump-coronavirus-lockdown-puzzle_n_5e9ac046c5b6ea335d5be8c7. Melania Trump tweeted out a "White House puzzle" for people to complete while under quarantine. Critics responded to this by denouncing her husband's response to the pandemic and criticizing her for "tone-deafness", as people are losing their lives.

My coworkers were angry about the response, and one woman said that if "Big Mama Michelle Obama" had done something similar to Melania, she would have been praised. I found this term to be offensive (as a black person) and could barely contain myself from interjecting into their conversation. I'm well aware of the negative things which have been said about Michelle Obama-calling her a "monkey" and everything else in between, and it astounds me how people revert to such images when confronted with a controversy.

You're black? No reason I would know this I suppose, but I'm surprised it's never come up in conversation on the Forum before.

[Calthrina950]

Trump aside, it astonishes me the extent to which the coronavirus pandemic is merely reinforcing polarization and partisanship. This is particularly true here in Colorado, where Democrats have praised, and largely approve of, Polis' response, and Republicans are opposed. At my job today, I overheard conversations in the break room regarding that response. Frustrations were expressed about the shutdown, and the need for the economy to be reopened was something that I heard frequently. Someone also made a joke about Polis' "enforcers", of the stay-at-home order, and expressed anger over the possibility of a mandatory mask requirement being imposed.

I also heard some more insidious comments, a reminder to me of how stereotypes and racism have been fueled by this crisis. Two other coworkers of mines were having a conversation about this story: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/melania-trump-coronavirus-lockdown-puzzle_n_5e9ac046c5b6ea335d5be8c7. Melania Trump tweeted out a "White House puzzle" for people to complete while under quarantine. Critics responded to this by denouncing her husband's response to the pandemic and criticizing her for "tone-deafness", as people are losing their lives.

My coworkers were angry about the response, and one woman said that if "Big Mama Michelle Obama" had done something similar to Melania, she would have been praised. I found this term to be offensive (as a black person) and could barely contain myself from interjecting into their conversation. I'm well aware of the negative things which have been said about Michelle Obama-calling her a "monkey" and everything else in between, and it astounds me how people revert to such images when confronted with a controversy.

You're black? No reason I would know this I suppose, but I'm surprised it's never come up in conversation on the Forum before.

I've mentioned it several times before, but you've probably never come across the instances in which I did. But yes, I am, and I'm particularly aware of the effect this pandemic is having upon communities of color. Hence, my inward reaction to what my co-workers were saying.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The worst part about the lack of testing is that it is possible that the strategy we are currently deploying is the opposite of what we should be doing, and we might never know it.

Because we don’t have widespread population test, we have neither a good idea of the contagiousness of the virus nor it’s lethality.  And it is likely that these two factors are highly negatively correlated with each other.

If it turns out the virus is both much more contagious and much less lethal than our original estimates (as the little bit of recent evidence tends to point to), we should not be doing general lockdowns.  We should be aiming for herd immunity in a controlled way that limits restrictions to vulnerable populations and places where the health care system, while encouraging the spread of the virus among the young and healthy.  

This is further suggested by the fact that while our models seem to be doing a decent job projecting the upward trajectory of case and death rates, they are failing with respect to two other factors.  First, they dramatically overestimated the need for hospital capacity at peak levels.  And second, they dramatically overestimated the rate of decline once the peak is reached.   These failures indicate that the general lockdowns are both less necessary and less effective than initially anticipated.

This is slightly misguided by your central argument of lack of testing. The media is going nuts about 'testing'.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-april-17-2020/

Most of what you are asking for will be in the datasets from testing already underway and completed. In terms of spot-testing, Dr Birx has a program of getting data from the broader community now which is already underway.

Dr Fauci said that testing is not the issue yesterday:

"the emphasis that we’ve been hearing is essentially, “testing is everything,” and it isn’t."

He went on to say (in the nicest possible way) that people are imagining that this is the real issue when it is purely in their head.

And Dr Birx has reiterated many times at the Daily Briefing that the current testing levels correlate well with hospitalisation and mortality rates in areas where it is being conducted. That is, she is saying that lack of testing is not the problem here.

Dr Anthony Fauci went on to say that:

"we will have and there will be enough tests to allow us to take this country safely through phase one."

Both Dr Fauci and Dr Birx gave the distinct feeling that the testing coverage is appropriate now, and that a lot of people, fueled by the media, feel as though testing is underneath where it should be.

In fact, the opposite of "not enough testing" is true based on comments made by the Admiral GIROIR at the same briefing:

"This is, sort of, the radar — the weather radar that it would be out there — that we’re not testing people who are symptomatic.  We want to do testing on people who are asymptomatic because you can have asymptomatic carriage.  You know, you could have this virus and shed it, and not have symptoms or only mild symptoms."

"We have 200,000 people who need a diagnosis.  To make that diagnosis, we want to test 2 million.  Okay?  So that’s 2 million.  We’re going to contact trace with a million.  And let’s just throw you a fudge factor of about 25 percent on that; so that’s 4 million.  And we have this background testing of about 400 — of about 400,000 per month."

And I want to tell you that’s really how it adds up, and that’s where we are.  Right now, we’re doing about 1 million to 1.2 million per week.

So the Admiral is saying that the current testing regime covers all the necessary diagnosis of infected patients, the contract traces of those 200,000 people to 5 friends each.

Then there is more than enough community spot testing or background testing over over 400,000 people per month.

4.8 million tests per month are being performed for a total required capacity of only around 2-3 million.

How in the world is 4.8 million tests per month anywhere close to enough?  At that rate, it will take 6 years to test every American.  The testing of symptomatic people isn’t even that important right now.  If you’re symptomatic, you probably have it.  But for every symptomatic person, there’s almost certainly at least 10, and maybe closer to 50, asymptomatic people who have no idea they have it.  How are we going to isolate those cases testing only 4.8 million people per month?

We don’t have 200,000 people who need a diagnosis, we have 330 million who need a diagnosis.

[Grassroots]

April 18
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 3 states (-3)
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states (-)
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 26 states (+1)
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 6 states (+2)
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states (-)

What time interval are you using? What are the quantitative measurements you are using?

New cases per day is the metric in use, and the time intervals are across the past 5-7 days.

[Badger]

Trump aside, it astonishes me the extent to which the coronavirus pandemic is merely reinforcing polarization and partisanship. This is particularly true here in Colorado, where Democrats have praised, and largely approve of, Polis' response, and Republicans are opposed. At my job today, I overheard conversations in the break room regarding that response. Frustrations were expressed about the shutdown, and the need for the economy to be reopened was something that I heard frequently. Someone also made a joke about Polis' "enforcers", of the stay-at-home order, and expressed anger over the possibility of a mandatory mask requirement being imposed.

I also heard some more insidious comments, a reminder to me of how stereotypes and racism have been fueled by this crisis. Two other coworkers of mines were having a conversation about this story: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/melania-trump-coronavirus-lockdown-puzzle_n_5e9ac046c5b6ea335d5be8c7. Melania Trump tweeted out a "White House puzzle" for people to complete while under quarantine. Critics responded to this by denouncing her husband's response to the pandemic and criticizing her for "tone-deafness", as people are losing their lives.

My coworkers were angry about the response, and one woman said that if "Big Mama Michelle Obama" had done something similar to Melania, she would have been praised. I found this term to be offensive (as a black person) and could barely contain myself from interjecting into their conversation. I'm well aware of the negative things which have been said about Michelle Obama-calling her a "monkey" and everything else in between, and it astounds me how people revert to such images when confronted with a controversy.

You're black? No reason I would know this I suppose, but I'm surprised it's never come up in conversation on the Forum before.

I've mentioned it several times before, but you've probably never come across the instances in which I did. But yes, I am, and I'm particularly aware of the effect this pandemic is having upon communities of color. Hence, my inward reaction to what my co-workers were saying.

Fwiw, it would be an obnoxious thing for your co-workers to say under any circumstances, but to do so within hearing of an African American co-worker takes a particular level of ignorant a$$hole, and you were perfectly justified in feeling incensed. IMHO anyway.

[Calthrina950]

Trump aside, it astonishes me the extent to which the coronavirus pandemic is merely reinforcing polarization and partisanship. This is particularly true here in Colorado, where Democrats have praised, and largely approve of, Polis' response, and Republicans are opposed. At my job today, I overheard conversations in the break room regarding that response. Frustrations were expressed about the shutdown, and the need for the economy to be reopened was something that I heard frequently. Someone also made a joke about Polis' "enforcers", of the stay-at-home order, and expressed anger over the possibility of a mandatory mask requirement being imposed.

I also heard some more insidious comments, a reminder to me of how stereotypes and racism have been fueled by this crisis. Two other coworkers of mines were having a conversation about this story: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/melania-trump-coronavirus-lockdown-puzzle_n_5e9ac046c5b6ea335d5be8c7. Melania Trump tweeted out a "White House puzzle" for people to complete while under quarantine. Critics responded to this by denouncing her husband's response to the pandemic and criticizing her for "tone-deafness", as people are losing their lives.

My coworkers were angry about the response, and one woman said that if "Big Mama Michelle Obama" had done something similar to Melania, she would have been praised. I found this term to be offensive (as a black person) and could barely contain myself from interjecting into their conversation. I'm well aware of the negative things which have been said about Michelle Obama-calling her a "monkey" and everything else in between, and it astounds me how people revert to such images when confronted with a controversy.

You're black? No reason I would know this I suppose, but I'm surprised it's never come up in conversation on the Forum before.

I've mentioned it several times before, but you've probably never come across the instances in which I did. But yes, I am, and I'm particularly aware of the effect this pandemic is having upon communities of color. Hence, my inward reaction to what my co-workers were saying.

Fwiw, it would be an obnoxious thing for your co-workers to say under any circumstances, but to do so within hearing of an African American co-worker takes a particular level of ignorant a$$hole, and you were perfectly justified in feeling incensed. IMHO anyway.

Certainly, and what's especially galling is that they were talking about the weather beforehand, and I said something to them about it. And the woman who made that remark about Michelle Obama was someone who I had a few friendly interactions with previously. But then again, I work at Home Depot, and my workplace seems to be dominated by right-leaning, conservative types. So I shouldn't have been too surprised.

[jimrtex]

How in the world is 4.8 million tests per month anywhere close to enough?  At that rate, it will take 6 years to test every American.  The testing of symptomatic people isn’t even that important right now.  If you’re symptomatic, you probably have it.  But for every symptomatic person, there’s almost certainly at least 10, and maybe closer to 50, asymptomatic people who have no idea they have it.  How are we going to isolate those cases testing only 4.8 million people per month?

We don’t have 200,000 people who need a diagnosis, we have 330 million who need a diagnosis.

This sounds like a WAG on your part.

[jimrtex]

April 18
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 3 states (-3)
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states (-)
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 26 states (+1)
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 6 states (+2)
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states (-)

What time interval are you using? What are the quantitative measurements you are using?

New cases per day is the metric in use, and the time intervals are across the past 5-7 days.

5 days or 7 days?

What I meant was "Cases strongly decreasing" is a qualitative description. What percentage does that correspond to?

[Meclazine for Israel]

How in the world is 4.8 million tests per month anywhere close to enough?  At that rate, it will take 6 years to test every American.  The testing of symptomatic people isn’t even that important right now.  If you’re symptomatic, you probably have it.  But for every symptomatic person, there’s almost certainly at least 10, and maybe closer to 50, asymptomatic people who have no idea they have it.  How are we going to isolate those cases testing only 4.8 million people per month?

We don’t have 200,000 people who need a diagnosis, we have 330 million who need a diagnosis.

Anywhere between 2-3 at the moment. And the anti-body testing program will reveal that more accurately. I hope it is 50 as that would severely reduce the chances of this thing coming back next year.

For every death, I am suggesting 70 people have been infected fully with symptoms. Hence the mortality rate.

Another 70 people are asymptomatic and another 120-140 are carrying antibodies without ever knowing they came into contact with the virus. No glass residue in their lungs or any symptoms whatsoever. The youth are simply not getting sick in anywhere near the numbers that the elderly are.

As for your other point, which is valid, and was actually asked at the briefing, Dr Fauci said that normal RNA testing (+/- for virus) will never keep up with the population of 330M. It's just not feasible.

For mass population testing, your only option he said was a reliable anti-body test due to the instant nature of the diagnosis. He warned that not all anti-body results are reliable.

So they have a graded scale of testing that works it's way down to produce overall results that are meaningful.

[Meclazine for Israel]

And in breaking news from Western Australia which has some of the strictest lock-down protocols in the world, we have had 1 new positively tested case today:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/wa-records-just-one-new-coronavirus-case-with-state-total-at-545/12162662

One.

We have completely locked down the state from international, interstate and intra-state travel and shut down airlines, businesses, shops and services for just one case. Sacked thousands of people and put them on social security which wont arrive for 3 months.

The Australian media ring the bell and cry wolf no matter what happens. Pure torture.

The media simply wont put forward the idea of opening up society for a return to normality.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How in the world is 4.8 million tests per month anywhere close to enough?  At that rate, it will take 6 years to test every American.  The testing of symptomatic people isn’t even that important right now.  If you’re symptomatic, you probably have it.  But for every symptomatic person, there’s almost certainly at least 10, and maybe closer to 50, asymptomatic people who have no idea they have it.  How are we going to isolate those cases testing only 4.8 million people per month?

We don’t have 200,000 people who need a diagnosis, we have 330 million who need a diagnosis.

Anywhere between 2-3 at the moment. And the anti-body testing program will reveal that more accurately. I hope it is 50 as that would severely reduce the chances of this thing coming back next year.

For every death, I am suggesting 70 people have been infected fully with symptoms. Hence the mortality rate.

Another 70 people are asymptomatic and another 120-140 are carrying antibodies without ever knowing they came into contact with the virus. No glass residue in their lungs or any symptoms whatsoever. The youth are simply not getting sick in anywhere near the numbers that the elderly are.

As for your other point, which is valid, and was actually asked at the briefing, Dr Fauci said that normal RNA testing (+/- for virus) will never keep up with the population of 330M. It's just not feasible.

For mass population testing, your only option he said was a reliable anti-body test due to the instant nature of the diagnosis. He warned that not all anti-body results are reliable.

So they have a graded scale of testing that works it's way down to produce overall results that are meaningful.

I guess I don’t understand why it isn’t “feasible” to produce a test that anyone can get, and get quick results for.  Anybody today can go the their local pharmacy and pick up an OTC HIV test for less than $50 that will tell them if they have the HIV virus in about 15 minutes.  Why would this not be possible for COVID?

And why is it possible for Iceland to test anyone that wants it but not the US?

[Grassroots]

April 18
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 3 states (-3)
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states (-)
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 26 states (+1)
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 6 states (+2)
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states (-)

What time interval are you using? What are the quantitative measurements you are using?

New cases per day is the metric in use, and the time intervals are across the past 5-7 days.

5 days or 7 days?

What I meant was "Cases strongly decreasing" is a qualitative description. What percentage does that correspond to?

It's not based on a percentage, it's based simply on what I see in the charts. If I see it decreasing at a steep enough curve, I consider it a strong decline. If it's an Italy esque downslope, I consider it a light decrease.

[TJ in Oregon]

How in the world is 4.8 million tests per month anywhere close to enough?  At that rate, it will take 6 years to test every American.  The testing of symptomatic people isn’t even that important right now.  If you’re symptomatic, you probably have it.  But for every symptomatic person, there’s almost certainly at least 10, and maybe closer to 50, asymptomatic people who have no idea they have it.  How are we going to isolate those cases testing only 4.8 million people per month?

We don’t have 200,000 people who need a diagnosis, we have 330 million who need a diagnosis.

Anywhere between 2-3 at the moment. And the anti-body testing program will reveal that more accurately. I hope it is 50 as that would severely reduce the chances of this thing coming back next year.

For every death, I am suggesting 70 people have been infected fully with symptoms. Hence the mortality rate.

Another 70 people are asymptomatic and another 120-140 are carrying antibodies without ever knowing they came into contact with the virus. No glass residue in their lungs or any symptoms whatsoever. The youth are simply not getting sick in anywhere near the numbers that the elderly are.

As for your other point, which is valid, and was actually asked at the briefing, Dr Fauci said that normal RNA testing (+/- for virus) will never keep up with the population of 330M. It's just not feasible.

For mass population testing, your only option he said was a reliable anti-body test due to the instant nature of the diagnosis. He warned that not all anti-body results are reliable.

So they have a graded scale of testing that works it's way down to produce overall results that are meaningful.

I guess I don’t understand why it isn’t “feasible” to produce a test that anyone can get, and get quick results for.  Anybody today can go the their local pharmacy and pick up an OTC HIV test for less than $50 that will tell them if they have the HIV virus in about 15 minutes.  Why would this not be possible for COVID?

And why is it possible for Iceland to test anyone that wants it but not the US?

It probably will be possible to be tested like that eventually, but it takes time to develop these things.

Here is a basic description of how the tests work. Typically we'd expect various portions of this procedure to be streamlined and automated over time. When you initially design something, usually you first just try to get it to work at all, then figure out how to make it easier.

[BlueSwan]

The 60k death estimate seems crazily optimistic. The count is already at almost 40k with roughly 2k new deaths a day. There’s no way that the daily death toll will drop quickly enough to get a final count if around 60k.