I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.
As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).
This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).
Sort of gives me vibes of IA map last decade. IA map last decade wasn't a gerrymander (it was court drawn iirc) but Obama won 3/4 congressional districts but all flipped to Trump in 2016 and Dems struggled to hold them throughout the decade.
Yeah, exactly. It was visually pleasing and very compact, and of course it wasn't drawn with any intent to gerrymander, but by the end of the decade the effect it really had was to crack up all the sources of Democratic strength in eastern Iowa...it's actually very easy to draw a comfortably Democratic seat if you keep the Quad Cities area united, and it's not un-compact, either. Likewise, although the map looked nice, it cracked up the Des Moines area by drowning Polk/Dallas with heavily red rurals and putting Story County in an even redder seat.
