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[No More Tears]

Ozzy Osbourne

No More Tears

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CprfjfN5PRs

The album that launched the career of Zak Wylde.

According to current polling, Biden is tied at best in the national popular vote. This is despite Trump's Supreme Court Injustices flat-out endorsing January 6, his opponent facing numerous felony charges, Project 2025 (which Biden won't f**king talk about), Trump's promises to abandon Ukraine and carpet-bomb Gaza even more, a forthcoming genocide against trans people if Trump wins, Trump's horrendous "handling" of COVID that led to over a million American fatalities, and so much more.

This election shouldn't even be remotely close. Biden's campaign doesn't even get an F from me - it gets a Z. Any remotely competent Democratic incumbent President would be crushing Trump, and instead Biden's the one getting crushed according to much of the polling. I'm going to vote for Biden, but I fully expect him to lose, and when he does, it's all his fault.

Unlike in 2020 the Biden Campaign has no Strategy this year. In 2020 it was all about WI, MI, PA and it worked.
This year they can't get to 270 with only those 3 States. They need NE-2 or NV.
Given that Biden is apparently more unpopular in the Sunbelt compared to the Rustbelt from the Data we have I cast doubt they will win NC and GA & AZ (where they only won by 10K). And they need to do away with these "Wishcasting States" like FL and TX. Not happening.

NE2 is an easy win, it's still a 6 point Biden win in 2020 and is full of highly educated whites-the demographic least likely to swing to Trump. Obviously though, nobody wants to win by exactly 270 electoral votes, so Biden should and is working hard in other states. That said, the 270-268 map is plausible.

We need NV and the last poll had Trump up 3 in NEB 2 it's not an easy win for us

I expect we're going to see 3rd party voting precincts outside of Utah (and tiny, under 50 people precincts) for the first time in quite a while, and they'll be in East Dearborn. Assuming West and Stein don't split the "FREE PALESTINE" vote enough for Biden to get a plurality in those precincts, at least.

According to current polling, Biden is tied at best in the national popular vote. This is despite Trump's Supreme Court Injustices flat-out endorsing January 6, his opponent facing numerous felony charges, Project 2025 (which Biden won't f**king talk about), Trump's promises to abandon Ukraine and carpet-bomb Gaza even more, a forthcoming genocide against trans people if Trump wins, Trump's horrendous "handling" of COVID that led to over a million American fatalities, and so much more.

This election shouldn't even be remotely close. Biden's campaign doesn't even get an F from me - it gets a Z. Any remotely competent Democratic incumbent President would be crushing Trump, and instead Biden's the one getting crushed according to much of the polling. I'm going to vote for Biden, but I fully expect him to lose, and when he does, it's all his fault.

Unlike in 2020 the Biden Campaign has no Strategy this year. In 2020 it was all about WI, MI, PA and it worked.
This year they can't get to 270 with only those 3 States. They need NE-2 or NV.
Given that Biden is apparently more unpopular in the Sunbelt compared to the Rustbelt from the Data we have I cast doubt they will win NC and GA & AZ (where they only won by 10K). And they need to do away with these "Wishcasting States" like FL and TX. Not happening.

NE2 is an easy win, it's still a 6 point Biden win in 2020 and is full of highly educated whites-the demographic least likely to swing to Trump. Obviously though, nobody wants to win by exactly 270 electoral votes, so Biden should and is working hard in other states. That said, the 270-268 map is plausible.

[Biden has the power to stop this]

She's literally Palestinian-American. I don't necessarily endorse all her views, but I'm not sure what people want from her. "Yes, I'm going to endorse a guy who is committing genocide of my ancestral people?" If Biden came to your house and killed your family members, and then asked you for your vote, would you look at that as anything but literal insanity? Biden had the power to end this whole situation a long time ago, Tlaib never has it for one day. Go ahead, strip her of her committees, the power that her constituents who elected her gave her. Atlas has lost its sense over this issue. Goodness gracious.

You not only inaccurately label this as "genocide," then you falsely claim Biden is the one doing it (!), and then have the nerve to say that someone else has "lost its sense." OK Buddy.

Biden has the power to stop this, but he keeps supporting Bibi and IDF with guns and continues to give diplomatic support, refusing to pass a vote on ceasefire or Palestinian statehood in the UN. So yes, Biden definitely plays a very important role in not preventing this, which is one of the reasons why Rashida Tlaib is right here. We would have had a ceasefire if it wasn't for Biden. The fact that his opponent is worse doesn't change anything. It's about Biden.

No he absolutely does not, and it's objectively dumb to state as much.

It's more likely to stop if you don't send Netanyahu $26 billion.

Fundamentally what New Caledonia needs most of all right now is economic support and an ambitious public investment policy to move past the extraction economy and redistribute resources. Of course I don't expect a neoliberal like Macron to do any of that, but I also don't think an independent New Caledonia/Kanaky to have the resources to do that either (unless they become a de facto Chinese protectorate, which carries its own serious downsides...).

Transitioning to what though, a tourist centric economy? Because that's their only other productive sector of the economy, and I don't think the Kanak leaders want to go down the path of whoring away their culture to attract top tourist dollars.
Instructively, Bougainville's independence leaders have been pushing very hard for reopening and expanding their gold mine, only with the royalties to stay on the island instead of funnelling into Port Moresby. There simply isn't another way for them to generate investment.

Well, what you're outlining a big part of why I don't think it's a good idea for New Caledonia to seek independence. I'm not saying they should stop exporting nickel altogether, and of course profits from such exports should go to the island (iirc they already mostly do following the Nouméa accords), but commodities exports are famously an unreliable revenue source, and one that creates a lot of perverse economic effects. You see that even in large, diverse countries like much of Latin America, and it'd be even worse on a small island in the middle of the Pacific. Being part of a large, economically diversified country can help mitigate those issues in a variety of ways. And as far as what the alternatives are, I'm not an economist but I don't see why tourism is the only sector that could be developed. I'm sure there are avenues of development in manufacturing or in locally-oriented services, given enough political will.

Yes absolutely, when it comes to resource wealth for every Botswana there's a Nauru.
The obstacle to development across all the pacific islands is the astronomical cost of shipping from the low demand and high distances, which continues to make export driven manufacturing beyond uneconomical (this even applies to manufacturing in Australia and NZ to a lesser extent), and exports are limited to resources that have enough demand and economies of scale to be economical.
One of the few opportunities for new foreign investment are digital nomads, and they haven't exactly been a good deal in places like Portugal.

Honestly that'd be a lot more rational than what they're doing right now.

FF a good guy, I'd vote for him in a safe state.

Fundamentally what New Caledonia needs most of all right now is economic support and an ambitious public investment policy to move past the extraction economy and redistribute resources. Of course I don't expect a neoliberal like Macron to do any of that, but I also don't think an independent New Caledonia/Kanaky to have the resources to do that either (unless they become a de facto Chinese protectorate, which carries its own serious downsides...).

Transitioning to what though, a tourist centric economy? Because that's their only other productive sector of the economy, and I don't think the Kanak leaders want to go down the path of whoring away their culture to attract top tourist dollars.
Instructively, Bougainville's independence leaders have been pushing very hard for reopening and expanding their gold mine, only with the royalties to stay on the island instead of funnelling into Port Moresby. There simply isn't another way for them to generate investment.

Well, what you're outlining a big part of why I don't think it's a good idea for New Caledonia to seek independence. I'm not saying they should stop exporting nickel altogether, and of course profits from such exports should go to the island (iirc they already mostly do following the Nouméa accords), but commodities exports are famously an unreliable revenue source, and one that creates a lot of perverse economic effects. You see that even in large, diverse countries like much of Latin America, and it'd be even worse on a small island in the middle of the Pacific. Being part of a large, economically diversified country can help mitigate those issues in a variety of ways. And as far as what the alternatives are, I'm not an economist but I don't see why tourism is the only sector that could be developed. I'm sure there are avenues of development in manufacturing or in locally-oriented services, given enough political will.

[Biden has the power to stop this]

She's literally Palestinian-American. I don't necessarily endorse all her views, but I'm not sure what people want from her. "Yes, I'm going to endorse a guy who is committing genocide of my ancestral people?" If Biden came to your house and killed your family members, and then asked you for your vote, would you look at that as anything but literal insanity? Biden had the power to end this whole situation a long time ago, Tlaib never has it for one day. Go ahead, strip her of her committees, the power that her constituents who elected her gave her. Atlas has lost its sense over this issue. Goodness gracious.

You not only inaccurately label this as "genocide," then you falsely claim Biden is the one doing it (!), and then have the nerve to say that someone else has "lost its sense." OK Buddy.

Biden has the power to stop this, but he keeps supporting Bibi and IDF with guns and continues to give diplomatic support, refusing to pass a vote on ceasefire or Palestinian statehood in the UN. So yes, Biden definitely plays a very important role in not preventing this, which is one of the reasons why Rashida Tlaib is right here. We would have had a ceasefire if it wasn't for Biden. The fact that his opponent is worse doesn't change anything. It's about Biden.

No he absolutely does not, and it's objectively dumb to state as much.