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Some people do not want to believe Trump is way ahead, or that 9% inflation, 8% mortgage rates, and foreign policy failures do hurt your support by more than 1%.

Because basically no other metric besides polling suggests any sort of Trump landslide. Midterms and special elections. Donations and fundraising. Campaign offices and ground game. Demographics and demographic changes in key states.

Biden approval is sh**t. Most people think the economy is bad and getting worse. A bunch of foreign policy failures. Migrant crisis. Midterms and special elections are irrelevant when the same downballot Democrats are outperforming Biden by double digits.

Democrats:

If anyone ever wanted to stop farm subsidies they could just start calling it “Farmers Socialism” and most small, rural farmers would give it up and have their farms collapse over accepting they need the government to survive.

As usual, The Moff gave us another good who episode. I’d be fine with a The Moff/RTD joint dictatorship for life with Gatiss helping as well.

Crickets from the Western media.

https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/1791651579939963194

This dude is a tankie apologist for the Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Syrian governments who claims that the Syrian government’s use of chemical weapons is a hoax, has been denying the existence of China’s genocide against the Uyghurs, refers to Israelis as “Judeo-Nazis,” has compared Israel to ISIS, and made numerous false claims to minimize the 10/7 massacre including suggesting that it may’ve been an Israeli false-flag operation.  He’s not a remotely credible sources, but it says a lot about you that you seem to think he is.

[It's also only one electoral vote]

If Trump only flips GA, AZ, and NV, he gets to 268. So, what about NE 2? Could he win that also?

I think it's far more realistic for him to go after one of the big Midwestern battlegrounds. The newly redrawn NE-02 was already 3 to 5 points more Democratic than each of those states in 2020, and is almost certainly trending D much faster than all of them.

In fact, I'd put more effort into NM, ME-AL, and maybe even MN if I were Team Trump.

It's also only one electoral vote

And only leads to a tie in the scenario he wins it but loses the midwestern states. It's possible he wins it but I suspect he wins the 3 midwestern battlegrounds before taking back NE-2.

To the question whether it is safe... obviously no. But if the Biden team and supporters want to be overconfident going in election cycle, be my guest.

The point is if Biden wins the blue wall that one vote is crucial

The 269-269 map with Biden winning the Rust Belt States and Trump winning NE02 is hard to see without massive urban rural depolarization. In this case ME02 is competitive and so is MN.

I did a similar poll recently, but this time, I suggest that you pick one of the first two options unless you feel that you can not.

However I am choosing the fourth option this time.
I have no idea who wins.

If the polls are accurate, Biden is in big trouble, but there is plenty of time to turn this around.

Adding the too early or too close to call options is stupid, because nobody in reality can call it now. Anyone who claims they can call the race don't know what they talk about.

https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/National-May-Presentation-RELEASE-5-16-24.pdf

More people now think the US is in recession than not in recession. By a margin of more than 2 to 1, people think the economy is getting worse rather than better.

Every single libertarian should be up in arms about this (figuratively).