Was reading about this conflict yesterday combined with Russia-Ukraine from a geopolitical perspective and what this does to "rules-based order". Here's my amateur armchair geopolitical take on what Netanyahu's grand goal in this is:
Netanyahu has stated complete elimination of Hamas is his goal, that cannot be achieved in my opinion for the same reasons the U.S. discovered carrying out the Afghan and Iraq wars against their own asymmetrical opponents. Therefore, Netanyahu's real goal in my opinion is to keep the conflict going until November. If the war is still going in November, it's a salient issue and Biden is put into a tough spot of any hard position he takes will be opposed by people that should be voting for him. In the event of a Trump victory, a new Trump administration would probably agree to Israel setting up a buffer zone in northern Gaza manned by Israeli military a la the Golan Heights with Syria. The buffer zone would be large enough to prevent Hamas incursions into Israel via underground tunnels or tube artillery. This would be almost universally condemned everywhere else, but Israel have clearly made the calculation that as long as the U.S. has their backs, no one else matters.
The future with a Biden victory in November is less clear, but I see Biden's clear both sides-ism he's displaying currently completely disappearing once the election is over, probably to drive harder bargains with Netanyahu. However, pro-Israel post-November will still have a clear majority in Congress regardless of election results, and I think that drives some of Netanyahu's calculus in U.S. relations is he knows Biden is outvoted by Congress, could maybe even override a veto, if a near 50/50 body you only need a third of Democrats to override a potential Biden veto.
I honestly think that one of the reasons he's dragging this out is because it hurts Biden politically. Once Trump wins, he will have free licence to do what he wants, no limits.
Netanyahu doesn’t care who wins in 2024, he just wants to keep power and stay out of prison. Everything he does should be viewed through that lens.
Yeah, I also don't think he particularly trusts Trump, nor should he. Trump apparently holds a grudge against him over him refusing to acknowledge the fake election results.
Trump is way more likely to agree to a Golan Heights-style buffer zone in Gazan territory than Biden would. If Biden agreed to it, he'd be LBJ-level dead for segments of the party and his support internationally would dissipate highly (I know Gaza is not a state like Ukraine is, but while this Israel-Gaza War has exposed American geopolitical hypocrisy some, it'd be Biden endorsing in this instance what we are condemning Russia is doing in Ukraine). Trump unlike Biden doesn't give a sh*t and it'd be popular with his supporters.
I just get the feeling we'll see a redux of 1980 and Iran and either on November 6th, 2024, or on January 21st, 2025, Israel will announce a stop to active military operations. I can't discount American domestic politics from decision-making Israel is doing in this conflict.
This seems likely to happen at this point. I really think Netanyahu is dragging this out to drag Biden down.
(on top of staying in power himself)
It's just ironic how half the red avatars on this forum basically have been cheering and defending the thing that cannot be defended and that will ultimately cause them to lose 2024 to the man they fear most, and play into Netanyahus hands. It's not just the elderly who have horrible political instincts...
In most other countries, the left - even center-left - is anti-genocide and pro-peace. This is what makes USA culturally different from Europe and rest of the world. The Democratic Party as a whole is not representive of the left. The only people worthy of being called left-wing are the students who protest genocide and a few brave people in congress or in extraparliamentary opposition.
