Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494406719836930054

[Torie]

Sure.jan, Biden Admin will just do this because Mr. Putin wants so.

https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/1494317602646245377

Why stop at Europe? And when will Putin demand Alaska back? This circus act would be funny if it were not so tragic.

Torie how did you feel about Sewards folly back in the day?

I loved the erose lines of the territory, so I was very enthusiastic. It was only in my third century, when I finally managed to mature to the point that I became hostile to erosity, except as a modern art piece.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494406719836930054

Is this poll broken down between Russian speakers and non Russian speakers?

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494406719836930054

Is this poll broken down between Russian speakers and non Russian speakers?

Not that I can see (although I can neither read nor speak Ukrainian!), but it does appear that the responses can be broken down by region. Unsurprisingly, it appears that the highest level of opposition to joining NATO would come from the eastern region of the country. And I assume they couldn't poll Crimea or the separatist-controlled areas of Donbas and Luhansk so you would need to factor that into consideration too.

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1494417483712892934

 

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494406719836930054

Is this poll broken down between Russian speakers and non Russian speakers?

Not that I can see (although I can neither read nor speak Ukrainian!), but it does appear that the responses can be broken down by region. Unsurprisingly, it appears that the highest level of opposition to joining NATO would come from the eastern region of the country. And I assume they couldn't poll Crimea or the separatist-controlled areas of Donbas and Luhansk so you would need to factor that into consideration too.

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1494417483712892934
 

Thanks. What would be interesting if "Russians" who all things being equal, would prefer to be part of Russia, but want to stay away, because being in the same nation as your tribe is not a reasonable path to either the good or moral life, and it is time to build a wall.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Something appears to be happening at the border between the two forces.

BigSerg may have been right.

[jaichind]

I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

I agree that these are going to be things Putin will want to get out of this.  A Russia-Ukraine compromise to me would be something like

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue
b) Ukraine carries out Minsk II which gives autonomy to the Donetsk republics
c) water rights for Crimeria - Ukraine has cut off water to Crimea since 2014 and Russia has to move in the water there at great expense
d) Ukraine formally giving up joining NATO

I suspect it is d) that is the main sticking point now.

Your list does not seem to include Russia giving up anything other than not invading for the moment. I don't think that dog will hunt or should hunt. It has eerie echoes of the forced relinquishment of the Sudetenland.

In one sense Russia has already lost, because unless the West is into the suicide mode, it cannot allow itself to be economically entangled with Russia to the point that it can be coerced to bend over. It's time for something akin to an economic divorce at least up to the point that when Russia is a bad boy, it can be cut off without undue economic pain.

It is also a warning shot about China, which will soon be a co super power with the US. That is a very sobering thought since it has the economic power, or soon will, to do just about anything it wants. 1951 was a good year to be born as an American. It really was. Good luck to you all.

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue

is actually a big concession since once Nord Stream II goes live then Ukraine will lose almost all gas transit revenue which makes up 18% of Ukraine government revenue.

I think rolling back NATO is a medium-term crisis meaning if Russia does not see progress on this in the next couple of years I can see Russia getting very aggressive.

The current crisis in my mind is about Nord Stream II and Western intra-alliance discipline.  Germany needs Nord Stream II or else its industrial economy will become uncompetitive.  The USA does not want Germany to further its economic links to Germany ergo a crisis has to be created to force Germany to give up Nord Stream II. When Germany does not budge the crisis has to be made bigger to increase the pressure on Germany.   Clearly, the USA can sanction Nord Stream II but that will turn the German people against the USA.  So Nord Stream II has to be shut down but the blame pinned on the Russians.

[Torie]

I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

I agree that these are going to be things Putin will want to get out of this.  A Russia-Ukraine compromise to me would be something like

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue
b) Ukraine carries out Minsk II which gives autonomy to the Donetsk republics
c) water rights for Crimeria - Ukraine has cut off water to Crimea since 2014 and Russia has to move in the water there at great expense
d) Ukraine formally giving up joining NATO

I suspect it is d) that is the main sticking point now.

Your list does not seem to include Russia giving up anything other than not invading for the moment. I don't think that dog will hunt or should hunt. It has eerie echoes of the forced relinquishment of the Sudetenland.

In one sense Russia has already lost, because unless the West is into the suicide mode, it cannot allow itself to be economically entangled with Russia to the point that it can be coerced to bend over. It's time for something akin to an economic divorce at least up to the point that when Russia is a bad boy, it can be cut off without undue economic pain.

It is also a warning shot about China, which will soon be a co super power with the US. That is a very sobering thought since it has the economic power, or soon will, to do just about anything it wants. 1951 was a good year to be born as an American. It really was. Good luck to you all.

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue

is actually a big concession since once Nord Stream II goes live then Ukraine will lose almost all gas transit revenue which makes up 18% of Ukraine government revenue.

I think rolling back NATO is a medium-term crisis meaning if Russia does not see progress on this in the next couple of years I can see Russia getting very aggressive.

The current crisis in my mind is about Nord Stream II and Western intra-alliance discipline.  Germany needs Nord Stream II or else its industrial economy will become uncompetitive.  The USA does not want Germany to further its economic links to Germany ergo a crisis has to be created to force Germany to give up Nord Stream II. When Germany does not budge the crisis has to be made bigger to increase the pressure on Germany.   Clearly, the USA can sanction Nord Stream II but that will turn the German people against the USA.  So Nord Stream II has to be shut down but the blame pinned on the Russians.

None of that strikes true to me.I suspect Germany has now decided to cut loose from Russia anyway. Short the world economy. It no longer works the way it it structured. We are well on our way to Cold War II. And this time, the West does not have the high ground. I am not confident that the West adequately understands just how suck their current position is. The clinging to free beer is perhaps a delusion that the beer is in fact free.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Something appears to be happening at the border between the two forces.

BigSerg may have been right.

Like what

[Person Man]

I have a feeling one of Putin's main objectives is to use this as bargaining chip to legitimize Crimea annexion and essentially get Donbass regions recognized as independent or part of Russia?

I agree that these are going to be things Putin will want to get out of this.  A Russia-Ukraine compromise to me would be something like

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue
b) Ukraine carries out Minsk II which gives autonomy to the Donetsk republics
c) water rights for Crimeria - Ukraine has cut off water to Crimea since 2014 and Russia has to move in the water there at great expense
d) Ukraine formally giving up joining NATO

I suspect it is d) that is the main sticking point now.

Your list does not seem to include Russia giving up anything other than not invading for the moment. I don't think that dog will hunt or should hunt. It has eerie echoes of the forced relinquishment of the Sudetenland.

In one sense Russia has already lost, because unless the West is into the suicide mode, it cannot allow itself to be economically entangled with Russia to the point that it can be coerced to bend over. It's time for something akin to an economic divorce at least up to the point that when Russia is a bad boy, it can be cut off without undue economic pain.

It is also a warning shot about China, which will soon be a co super power with the US. That is a very sobering thought since it has the economic power, or soon will, to do just about anything it wants. 1951 was a good year to be born as an American. It really was. Good luck to you all.

a) Russia continue to use Ukraine transit state for gas which would continue much needed Ukraine government revenue

is actually a big concession since once Nord Stream II goes live then Ukraine will lose almost all gas transit revenue which makes up 18% of Ukraine government revenue.

I think rolling back NATO is a medium-term crisis meaning if Russia does not see progress on this in the next couple of years I can see Russia getting very aggressive.

The current crisis in my mind is about Nord Stream II and Western intra-alliance discipline.  Germany needs Nord Stream II or else its industrial economy will become uncompetitive.  The USA does not want Germany to further its economic links to Germany ergo a crisis has to be created to force Germany to give up Nord Stream II. When Germany does not budge the crisis has to be made bigger to increase the pressure on Germany.   Clearly, the USA can sanction Nord Stream II but that will turn the German people against the USA.  So Nord Stream II has to be shut down but the blame pinned on the Russians.

It would be great if that is what is happening.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Something appears to be happening at the border between the two forces.

BigSerg may have been right.

Like what

Not much, apparently.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494406719836930054

The Ukraine could join NATO only after Putin dies. Putin wants to bring back the Soviet Union and make Russia a super power again. Maybe the next Russian generation will be more liberal.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494406719836930054

The Ukraine could join NATO only after Putin dies. Putin wants to bring back the Soviet Union and make Russia a super power again. Maybe the next Russian generation will be more liberal.

How? I mean, that’s like asking if I could get a toilet of solid gold.

[TheReckoning]

Does anyone else here find it possible that if Ukraine is invaded, they surrender Donetsk and surrounding territories without even fighting? That’s what Romania did with Bessarabia when the Soviets Occupied it in 1940.

[CumbrianLefty]

Did anybody "stay tuned" then?

[Middle-aged Europe]

BigSerg's sources are quite the disappointment.

[dead0man]

My sources tell me of widespread evacuations in the villages near the front lines.

On the Russian side because they are worried about the inevitable attack by the evil and all powerful Ukrainians?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Latest news:
https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1494665528799076352
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1494648894847864834
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1494619728312217607

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Does anyone else here find it possible that if Ukraine is invaded, they surrender Donetsk and surrounding territories without even fighting? That’s what Romania did with Bessarabia when the Soviets Occupied it in 1940.

De facto, we already "control" Donetsk.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Something appears to be happening at the border between the two forces.

BigSerg may have been right.

Like what

CARAVANS!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

My sources tell me of widespread evacuations in the villages near the front lines.

On the Russian side because they are worried about the inevitable attack by the evil and all powerful Ukrainians?

https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1494665528799076352

😬

[Person Man]

My sources tell me of widespread evacuations in the villages near the front lines.

On the Russian side because they are worried about the inevitable attack by the evil and all powerful Ukrainians?

Yes apparently

[Sir Mohamed]

Does anyone else here find it possible that if Ukraine is invaded, they surrender Donetsk and surrounding territories without even fighting? That’s what Romania did with Bessarabia when the Soviets Occupied it in 1940.

The region is already under de facto Russian control since 2014/15, so there's nothing to surrender. The question is whether an actual invasion goes beyond this territory. Ukraine would for sure not surrender right away, I just don't think they stand much of a chance even with massive military aid from NATO members.

[CumbrianLefty]

Presumably "surrender" in this context means Ukraine formally accepting said areas are Russian?

[Dereich]

Latest news:
https://twitter.com/27khv/status/1494665528799076352

I shouldn’t have to say this, but obviously Ukraine is not about to start an offensive against the breakaways with a massive Russian army on their border ready to invade. What would possibly be the point of this if Russia was bluffing? Mass evacuations are a hideously disruptive and expensive thing to do, especially if it goes on for any length of time.