Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[danny]

A bunch of parties (though not all) are going to go through primaries soon to get the lists ready for the election. The first to announce a date is the national union, which is the more right wing part of the Jewish Home, with the primaries taking place on January 14.

[danny]

Todays polls are all over the place with regards to the new Bennet Shaked party, between 6-14 seats, but they all agree that they beat what is left of the Jewish Home.

[danny]

Primary dates are being announced, Labour on 12/2 and Meretz on 14/2.

[danny]

Gabbay dumped Livni live and right in front of her, it was a very entertaining moment.

[danny]

I have checked Wikipedia for the labeling off the centrist and right-wing parties contesting the elections.

Do you agree with the labeling:

-Yesh Atid, Yair Lapid, Centre

All these labels depend on the on how you define left and right, with the most common being about the borders of the country and what should be given up in a peace treaty or things like the attitude towards the supreme court.
Yesh Atid's main goal appears to be trying to appear as centrist as possible, so this one is fine.

-Israel Resilience Party, Benny Gantz, Centre  but  Centre-right in security issues??

Security is what makes someone right/left so I don't know what it would mean to separate them this way. In any case Gantz hasn't been expressing his opinion on anything which is generally a sign of centrism.

-Kulanu, Moshe Kahlon, Centre to centre-right

This seems right, to the left of Likud, but also closer to it than Lapid

-Gesher, Orly Levy, Have not seen any labeling here. Centre-right or right-wing???

While she used to be part of Yisrael Beitenu she was to the left of her party so maybe centrist on security but relatively left on economic issues.

-Likud, Benjamin Netanyahu, Centre-right to right-wing

Yes

-Yisrael Beiteinu, Avigdor Lieberman, Right-wing

I don't think they are to the right of Likud although Lieberman doe like to give that impression.

-New Right, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, Right-wing

Yes

-The Jewish Home, ?, Right-wing to far-right

It won't be just the Jewish Home running as there should be some unions, but whatever happens, this party should be to the right of all the others mentioned here.

-Shas, Aryeh Deri, Social: Right-wing, Economic: Centre-left

Sure, but in addition Deri himself can be pretty moderate on security issues while their electorate is right wing. so it can alternate a bit, but will usually follow along with whatever Bibi wants on these matters.

-United Torah Judaism, Yaakov Litzman and Moshe Gafni, Right-wing

This party is about their conservative social issues and taking care of their religious sector rather than security issues. Their is some disagreement between the different parts of this party on security but since it isn't their focus they will generally just go along with whatever Bibi wants in return for supporting their issues.

[danny]

Apparantly Tzipi Livni wants to make an alliance with Lapis? What's her game anyway?

I don't think there is anything complicated, Livni doesn't make it to the Knesset on her own, so she needs to run with someone else. Her realistic options are Lapid and Gantz, so if they offer her a deal then she will take it.

[danny]

Jewish Home has selected Rafi Peretz, the former head Rabbi in the army, as its new leader. His first job is going to be figuring out with whom the party will run with.

[danny]

How many votes do Likud members get to cast? And I assume the special candidates for the Galil etc. are decided on by the Likud members who reside in these areas?

Each voter casts 12 votes for candidates on the national list. This national list includes places reserved for certain groups (women, minority etc.) where the highest placed from a reserved group will be bumped up if necessary.

There is a separate election for "regional" candidates. This election does not take place with all Likud members, but by central members that were voted on by members earlier, and those special voters will have 5 votes for different candidates, so each member votes in half of the 10 regions.

[danny]

Do you get to cast, say, 10 votes for one candidate and two for another one, or do you have to select 12 candidates in total?

12 different candidates.

[danny]

Polls for the Likud primary closing soon, results should come in afterwards. Over 62k people voted at 9, turnout was 54.3% at the time.

Up to what seems like a final 58%, 69,719 voters.

[danny]

a lot of incumbents found themselves towards the end, but I will note number 34 on the list May Golan who might even get in. She was very active against the refugees in South Tel Aviv, has links to Khanist groups, and a foul mouth that even Regev might pale.

Interesting. She seems to have potential to be the next Hazan.

I don't think Hazan was unusually Right wing for Likud, he was just a generally horrible person outside of his opinions in the way he treated people. As far as I know May Golan isn't like that, she's a more normal person that is to the right of what you would expect in the Likud.

[danny]

What's the deal with the New Likudniks?

Or are they economically populist conservatives?

Closer to the opposite, economically liberal, more moderate or left regarding national issues and the judiciary.

[danny]

So they're neo-liberals? I thought they came out of the housing protests?

It was set up by some marketing guy. Technically following the social protests, but that doesn't mean much, as lots of people of varying opinions participated in those protests.

[danny]

Apparently there are negotiations between rump Bayit Yehudi led by Rafi Peretz and Likud to run together. The BY candidates would receive designated spots on the Likud list: 21, 28 and one in the mid-30s, as far as I know. Bad news for Smotrich if this happens. Even if the National Union runs together with Otzma, I'm not sure they get in.

There was talk of this, but it isn't happening in the end.

[danny]

A recount in the Likud primary has flipped Sa'ar/Erdan (previously fifth and fourth, now fourth and fifth) and Levin/Gallant (previously ninth and eighth, now eighth and ninth). Bibi has also agreed to give up his reserved spot at the 21st to the national list, which bumps (all of these are Class of 2015 freshman MKs) Yoav Kish from 24th to 21st, David Bitan from 25th to 24th, Miki Zohar from 29th to 25th, and gadfly Canadian-immigrant libertarian Sharren Haskel from 37th to 29th. Bibi was lobbied to do this by Bitan and Zohar (who were both already probably in but simply wanted higher slots just in case), but the likely effect of this is that it bumps Haskel from almost certainly not returning to the Knesset to probably coming back.

As far as I know Netanyahu not using one of his spots bumps the entire list up 1 spot, not just the non reserved ones.

[danny]

Great news, would enthusiastically vote for them. Also happy to see Otzma aren't part of it.

Otzma aren't part of this deal, but they could still join later.

[danny]

Apparently Reuters claim that canceling of V4 summit in Israel will somehow negatively affect Netanyahu reputation before the elections. What do you think about that?

I doubt that, especially considering the reason it was cancelled.

[danny]

Gabbai found some general to put at number 2, Tal Russo.

[danny]

Otzma and JH-NU reach a deal Otzma will get places 5 and 8.

[danny]

This might change again, but Sharren Haskel won her appeal and is now back in a realistic spot on the Likud list (27 or 25, it isn't clear yet).

[danny]

Finally a fringe party I can get behind.

I assume these guys aren't going anywhere?

Very much so, I imagine that they will end with a result in the triple digit number of votes, and getting in will require around 140K.

[danny]

So there's about 3 and a half hours left before Lists have to be in right?  I assume there are no major moves left by anyone?

We seem to be done in terms of lists, now it's just a formality.

[danny]

Kahlon now uses the slogan "sane right". Not sure if he's explicitly placed Kulanu on the right before.

They have also said that they will support Bibi over Gantz for PM.

[danny]

A ridiculous 47 lists were submitted overall, although obviously most have no chance of making it in.

[danny]

I notice a lot of the lists are rather small. What's the procedure if a party surges after the lists have been submitted and they have more MK's than seats?

If a party receives enough votes to get more seats than they have candidates then the extra votes are discarded and the seat goes to the next closest winner of the seat from another party. This has happened before when Plato Sharon put only himself on the list but ended up getting enough votes for two seats (this was before the minimum threshold).