Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[DavidB.]

Walla poll (compared to GE15):

Likud 34 (+4)
Hosen LeYisrael/Gantz 22 (+22)
Yesh Atid 13 (+2)
Joint List 7 (-6)
UTJ 7 (+1)
Ta'al 6 (+6)
Jewish Home 6 (-2)
New Right 6 (+6)
Meretz 5 (no change)
Labour 5 (-19)
Kulanu 5 (-5)
Shas 4 (-3)

Yisrael Beiteinu/Lieberman (2.9%), Gesher (2.8%), Otzma Yehudit (2.8%), Zehut (1.7%), Hatnua/Livni (1.6%), Yachad (1.3%), Ale Yarok (1%) all under the threshold.

This one would be interesting: the first one with YB under the threshold. BY gaining at the expense of Bennett's new project, it seems. Kind of surprised to see such high numbers for BY in combination with Otzma also being close to the threshold. May be an outlier, we'll see.

From a "bloc" perspective:

Right-religious (almost definitely supporting Bibi over Gantz): 57 (no change compared to GE17)
Could swing both ways: 5 (-5)
Center-left-Arab (almost definitely supporting Gantz over Bibi): 58 (+5)

With the caveat that Gantz is a lot more right-wing than Herzog was, meaning that it would be more difficult for the Arab parties to support him at all. What has happened is that Kulanu voters have returned to the center-left bloc, presumably mostly to Gantz.

On the other hand, the Haredi parties may be more willing to support Gantz than any Labour person. A hypothetical government consisting of all parties except for Likud, New Right, Jewish Home and the Arab parties does have a majority in this poll: 61 seats. But it is still much less likely for all these parties to be able to unite than for Bibi to snatch just one more party and have them enter his coalition. Kulanu may just join the coalition and disband to become part of Likud along the way, we've seen this trick before in Israeli politics.

[jaichind]

So in the end will Hatnuah/Livni submit a list on their own? 

[Hnv1]

So in the end will Hatnuah/Livni submit a list on their own?  

Remains to be seen. They want to merge with someone no buyers yet.

Historically Labour is now polling lower than Meretz for the first time ever (in some polls) but both are in dismal state. A lot of pressure for them to unite, some officials on both are really pushing for it, but like always Gabbay is the problem. Left voters dislike him but he wouldn’t step down due to his pride. If Shelly finishes first in the primaries she could be Labour interim leader and an acceptable joint leader, it’s up to Gabbay to finally do the decent thing.
I personally prefer a Livni-Meretz merger to avoid the socialist drift Labour-Meretz will have

[America Needs R'hllor]

So in the end will Hatnuah/Livni submit a list on their own?  

Remains to be seen. They want to merge with someone no buyers yet.

Historically Labour is now polling lower than Meretz for the first time ever (in some polls) but both are in dismal state. A lot of pressure for them to unite, some officials on both are really pushing for it, but like always Gabbay is the problem. Left voters dislike him but he wouldn’t step down due to his pride. If Shelly finishes first in the primaries she could be Labour interim leader and an acceptable joint leader, it’s up to Gabbay to finally do the decent thing.
I personally prefer a Livni-Meretz merger to avoid the socialist drift Labour-Meretz will have

Do you think a Livni-Meretz merger is in the cards? Also, what happens if Stav Shafir is the 1st place finisher in the Labour primary (like I hope)?

[DavidB.]

I'm glad Nava Boker, Oren Hazan and Yaron Mazuz are all gone. Nurit Koren and Anat Berko are FFs but I kind of knew that both would not make it.

I met Berko. She has a cool background but is weird and unimpressive irl, and of no added value. Liked Dichter and especially Michal Rozin better.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm glad Nava Boker, Oren Hazan and Yaron Mazuz are all gone. Nurit Koren and Anat Berko are FFs but I kind of knew that both would not make it.

I met Berko. She has a cool background but is weird and unimpressive irl, and of no added value. Liked Dichter and especially Michal Rozin better.

Surprised you liked Rozin. A right-wing friend of mine told me she's a great speaker and very charismatic, so it seems like a running theme. Meretz would've probably done better with her than with Zandberg tbh.

[Hnv1]

So in the end will Hatnuah/Livni submit a list on their own?  

Remains to be seen. They want to merge with someone no buyers yet.

Historically Labour is now polling lower than Meretz for the first time ever (in some polls) but both are in dismal state. A lot of pressure for them to unite, some officials on both are really pushing for it, but like always Gabbay is the problem. Left voters dislike him but he wouldn’t step down due to his pride. If Shelly finishes first in the primaries she could be Labour interim leader and an acceptable joint leader, it’s up to Gabbay to finally do the decent thing.
I personally prefer a Livni-Meretz merger to avoid the socialist drift Labour-Meretz will have

Do you think a Livni-Meretz merger is in the cards? Also, what happens if Stav Shafir is the 1st place finisher in the Labour primary (like I hope)?

Nothing on the cards, Livni feels awkward moving this to the left, the list are for though.

Shaffir doesn’t have enough weight for the party to appoint her interim leader.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Talks between National Union and Jewish Home seem to have failed, leaving both running separately and by extension both likely falling short of the Threshold.
This is not good for Netanyahu as it splits the already fractured Right even further and will mean right wing votes are wasted.

They failed for now. Expect more news to come from them and also from Otzma Yehudit and Eli Yishai.

[jaichind]

When will the parties lock down surplus vote agreements ?

[Hnv1]

When will the parties lock down surplus vote agreements ?

they have until 10 days from the GE to file them in.

I suspect JH are trying to squeeze Smotric into conceding first by playing with a Likud merger. Might work.

Running with Khana nutters could hurt the NU and Smotric knows it. Though the difference is in how willing they are to say they hate Arabs up front, the Khanist are the flesh of religious Zionism and never were. They don't list to the Rabbis and the activist are mixture of crazy Yanks, former Haredi, and poor Sephardis. A joint rum could hurt Smotric with the base

[DavidB.]

Meanwhile Oren Hazan seems to have his eyes set on a place on the Otzma list. He took part in an Otzma protest at Rabin Square in Tel Aviv (really) and said Abbas should be beheaded (really). Other protestors had signs with slogans as charming as "jihadis to the gas" (yes, really).

Let's also take this historical opportunity to post the first poll with Labour under the threshold (by Miskar, published by Srugim yesterday; numbers compared to GE15):

Likud 30 (-)
Hosen LeYisrael/Gantz 20 (+20)
Yesh Atid 9 (-2)
New Right 7 (+7)
UTJ 6 (-)
Jewish Home + National Union 6 (-2)
Ta'al 5 (+5)
Joint List 4 (-9)

Under the threshold: Labour, Meretz, Shas, Kulanu, Yisrael Beiteinu/Lieberman, Gesher, Zehut/Feiglin, Hatnua/Livni, Yachad, Otzma, Ale Yarok. Apparently a truckload of votes would still go here, as the above seat numbers do not add up to 120. They should just show percentages instead of seats if they're going to do this.

The threshold could really be decisive to the potential options for coalitions: one led by Likud or one led by Gantz. One fewer party on the left and everything becomes easier for Bibi, but a few right-religious parties under the threshold more and things start getting a lot more complicated for him to get to 61.

[Hnv1]

Meanwhile Oren Hazan seems to have his eyes set on a place on the Otzma list. He took part in an Otzma protest at Rabin Square in Tel Aviv (really) and said Abbas should be beheaded (really). Other protestors had signs with slogans as charming as "jihadis to the gas" (yes, really).

Let's also take this historical opportunity to post the first poll with Labour under the threshold (by Miskar, published by Srugim yesterday; numbers compared to GE15):

Likud 30 (-)
Hosen LeYisrael/Gantz 20 (+20)
Yesh Atid 9 (-2)
New Right 7 (+7)
UTJ 6 (-)
Jewish Home + National Union 6 (-2)
Ta'al 5 (+5)
Joint List 4 (-9)

Under the threshold: Labour, Meretz, Shas, Kulanu, Yisrael Beiteinu/Lieberman, Gesher, Zehut/Feiglin, Hatnua/Livni, Yachad, Otzma, Ale Yarok. Apparently a truckload of votes would still go here, as the above seat numbers do not add up to 120. They should just show percentages instead of seats if they're going to do this.

The threshold could really be decisive to the potential options for coalitions: one led by Likud or one led by Gantz. One fewer party on the left and everything becomes easier for Bibi, but a few right-religious parties under the threshold more and things start getting a lot more complicated for him to get to 61.

A/ junk pollster
B/ if it didn't round up to 120 and he didn't allocate the rest to get 120 makes this figures meaningless
C/ if this scenario did happen in reality with almost 30% of the votes gone to the bin we'll have a constitutional crisis and probably some retroactive basic law to reduce the threshold

[DavidB.]

A) might be true, but it's also true that all these parties are close to the threshold in other polls - within the MoE. So a poll in which they end up under the threshold can only be expected. Completely agreed with B), very annoying.

[jaichind]

Almost all the polls I read from Israel are in terms of seats and not vote share (I may be wrong about that.)  Why is this? Seems pretty annoying as it does tell you how close parties below the threshold are to getting seats.  Ideally polls should show both vote share and seats. 

[DavidB.]

Almost all the polls I read from Israel are in terms of seats and not vote share (I may be wrong about that.)  Why is this? Seems pretty annoying as it does tell you how close parties below the threshold are to getting seats.  Ideally polls should show both vote share and seats.  

For the same reason as in the Netherlands: the electoral system is about as proportional as it gets, so a reliable seat estimate is easier to make than in other systems and provides more useful information.

Most pollsters nowadays do seem to include a percentage for parties below the threshold (see also here).

[DavidB.]

Apparently there are negotiations between rump Bayit Yehudi led by Rafi Peretz and Likud to run together. The BY candidates would receive designated spots on the Likud list: 21, 28 and one in the mid-30s, as far as I know. Bad news for Smotrich if this happens. Even if the National Union runs together with Otzma, I'm not sure they get in.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why wouldn't National Union run with Otzma? Who is even in National Union anymore? It's just Moledet now, right? I thought Otzma left National Union because of National Unions merger into the Jewish Home. Now that they ain't in Jewish Home, what's separating them?

[danny]

Apparently there are negotiations between rump Bayit Yehudi led by Rafi Peretz and Likud to run together. The BY candidates would receive designated spots on the Likud list: 21, 28 and one in the mid-30s, as far as I know. Bad news for Smotrich if this happens. Even if the National Union runs together with Otzma, I'm not sure they get in.

There was talk of this, but it isn't happening in the end.

[DavidB.]

Why wouldn't National Union run with Otzma? Who is even in National Union anymore? It's just Moledet now, right? I thought Otzma left National Union because of National Unions merger into the Jewish Home. Now that they ain't in Jewish Home, what's separating them?

Smotrich is in the National Union. He was technically the biggest guy left in BY, but because he isn't technically in BY and Rafi Peretz was appointed BY leader in the election, and Smotrich wants to lead the thing, and negotiations between BY and National Union were terminated as Peretz refused to cede his position, the two parties moved on.

The argument against National Union cooperating with Otzma is that Otzma is quite a bit more extreme than the National Union. Let's put it this way: most settlers are willing to vote for the party most willing to stand up against another version of Gush Katif-level ethnic cleansing in J&S. But Otzma are really quite crazy. BY/NU were at 5-6 seats in most polls without Otzma. They theoretically wouldn't need Otzma to get in. With Otzma you get the people who justify attacking the army in J&S etc. This is the route that Smotrich followed in his youth before he matured and changed his strategy. Most settlers in mainstream settlements have problems with attacking soldiers and see nothing in the extremism of the hilltop people and those who question the state's legitimacy and the like.

I personally do prefer all of them to team up and would perhaps vote for it (because it would suck if they pull a Yachad and miss out on the threshold in the end). You ideally get 6-7 seats, which would be worth it, even if you get Ben-Ari and maybe someone else from Otzma in as potential troublemakers. But Otzma are crazy and given current polling you can easily make the case that Otzma aren't needed and would be a liability in negotiations.

[America Needs R'hllor]

There's also the fact that most of the JH\NU voter base is made up of fairly decent kippa sruga people. Otzma is a violent, racist party in alliance with organizations like Lehava which are even more violent and which I, personally, view as an illegitimate, evil organization out to get people like me.
I'd like to think, and it seems Rafi Peretz thought so too, that most JH voters wouldn't support these people.

[DavidB.]

There's also the fact that most of the JH\NU voter base is made up of fairly decent kippa sruga people. Otzma is a violent, racist party in alliance with organizations like Lehava which are even more violent and which I, personally, view as an illegitimate, evil organization out to get people like me.
I'd like to think, and it seems Rafi Peretz thought so too, that most JH voters wouldn't support these people.

Exactly. This is basically what I wanted to convey with my post. The same goes for NU, indeed, so that's why teaming up with Otzma isn't exactly a no-brainer.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Also, Labour primary tomorrow: MKs Shelly Yachimovich, Itzik Shmuli and Stav Shafir are likely to contest the 1st place, while MKs Amir Peretz, Merav Michaeli, Revital Swid, Eitan Cabel, Omer Barlev and maybe Michal Biran are contesting the rest of the realistic or semi-realistic or well-maybe seats. Gabbay has a reserved spot in the 2nd place, but it's possible he doesn't make use of it- it's unlikely he has anyone who'd justify pushing back one of the sitting MKs.

I'll post the final list of the 10 candidates I'm voting for tomorrow. I'm also volunteering for Stav Shafir in the polls.

[DavidB.]

Also, Labour primary tomorrow: MKs Shelly Yachimovich, Itzik Shmuli and Stav Shafir are likely to contest the 1st place, while MKs Amir Peretz, Merav Michaeli, Revital Swid, Eitan Cabel, Omer Barlev and maybe Michal Biran are contesting the rest of the realistic or semi-realistic or well-maybe seats. Gabbay has a reserved spot in the 2nd place, but it's possible he doesn't make use of it- it's unlikely he has anyone who'd justify pushing back one of the sitting MKs.

I'll post the final list of the 10 candidates I'm voting for tomorrow. I'm also volunteering for Stav Shafir in the polls.

So Gabbay might actually not end up leading Labour?

[America Needs R'hllor]

There's also the fact that most of the JH\NU voter base is made up of fairly decent kippa sruga people. Otzma is a violent, racist party in alliance with organizations like Lehava which are even more violent and which I, personally, view as an illegitimate, evil organization out to get people like me.
I'd like to think, and it seems Rafi Peretz thought so too, that most JH voters wouldn't support these people.

Exactly. This is basically what I wanted to convey with my post. The same goes for NU, indeed, so that's why teaming up with Otzma isn't exactly a no-brainer.

Btw, I've just seen a report (by journalist Amit Segal who I trust) that says Netanyahu called Peretz to tell him that a union between JH and Likud wouldn't bring more voters according to polls he conducted, so it looks like an agreement between JH, NU and possibly Otzma is the likeliest.

Also, Labour primary tomorrow: MKs Shelly Yachimovich, Itzik Shmuli and Stav Shafir are likely to contest the 1st place, while MKs Amir Peretz, Merav Michaeli, Revital Swid, Eitan Cabel, Omer Barlev and maybe Michal Biran are contesting the rest of the realistic or semi-realistic or well-maybe seats. Gabbay has a reserved spot in the 2nd place, but it's possible he doesn't make use of it- it's unlikely he has anyone who'd justify pushing back one of the sitting MKs.

I'll post the final list of the 10 candidates I'm voting for tomorrow. I'm also volunteering for Stav Shafir in the polls.

So Gabbay might actually not end up leading Labour?

Nah, he's guaranteed to lead it. The primary is just for the list (by 1st place I meant 2nd on the list, possibly 3rd if Gabbay uses his reserved spot)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Final list of Labour candidates I'll be voting for later today:

MK Stav Shafir
MK Merav Michaeli
MK Omer Bar Lev
MK Michal Biran
MK Lea Fadida
Activist Emily Moati
Labour Youth leader Tomer Pines
Journalist Henrique Cymerman
Labour Haredi cell leader Michal Zernovitsky
Reform Rabbie Gilad Kariv

6\10 women, 5\10 new candidates. I like this list, if this was the top 10 I'd be very enthusiastic about Labour (though unfourtunately it won't be).