Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[danny]

A ridiculous 47 lists were submitted overall, although obviously most have no chance of making it in.

[DC Al Fine]

I notice a lot of the lists are rather small. What's the procedure if a party surges after the lists have been submitted and they have more MK's than seats?

[Famous Mortimer]

I notice a lot of the lists are rather small. What's the procedure if a party surges after the lists have been submitted and they have more MK's than seats?

Law might have changed but in the 80s, some dude ran as an independent and won enough for 2 seats but just had to forfeit that seat because he was the only one on his list. It's an incentive for everyone to submit lists with more people than they have a chance of winning.

[danny]

I notice a lot of the lists are rather small. What's the procedure if a party surges after the lists have been submitted and they have more MK's than seats?

If a party receives enough votes to get more seats than they have candidates then the extra votes are discarded and the seat goes to the next closest winner of the seat from another party. This has happened before when Plato Sharon put only himself on the list but ended up getting enough votes for two seats (this was before the minimum threshold).

[kelestian]

Can New Right support Gantz, if for example Bibi will be indicted?

[Hnv1]

Can New Right support Gantz, if for example Bibi will be indicted?

No.

[jaichind]

I totally get the logic of Netanyahu's maneuvers around Otzma and JH/NU but why does he have to be so open about it.  It seems him being so actively involved to get Otzma above the threshold will lose him moderate/centrist votes to Blue & White.  Is he not better off doing this behind the scenes in smoke filled rooms ?

[DavidB.]

I totally get the logic of Netanyahu's maneuvers around Otzma and JH/NU but why does he have to be so open about it.  It seems him being so actively involved to get Otzma above the threshold will lose him moderate/centrist votes to Blue & White.  Is he not better off doing this behind the scenes in smoke filled rooms ?

I think you have a very valid point here and would have preferred for it to take place behind closed doors, but I think the strategy was as follows: it was intended to increase the pressure on JH/NU to do it. There was and remains considerable opposition to the alliance with Otzma within religious Zionist circles.

What's more, to the electorate it conveys the message that the stakes are very high and the risk of a left-wing government is real, which should drive up turnout among the part of the electorate that often stays home but, if they do vote, only vote for Likud. The same segment that Bibi sought to mobilize when he made the statement about Arabs voting in droves during the last election.

[Oryxslayer]

More polls came out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Israeli_legislative_election

Generally they all confirm the same thing: B&W Lead, but a tiny Right government lead that vanishes if someone falls below the threshold. That said, Channel 13 is no longer alone in predicting Likud getting less then 30 seats.

[DavidB.]

More polls came out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Israeli_legislative_election

Generally they all confirm the same thing: B&W Lead, but a tiny Right government lead that vanishes if someone falls below the threshold. That said, Channel 13 is no longer alone in predicting Likud getting less then 30 seats.

The most recent one doesn't add up to 120 but to 117. They should really stop doing that. But yeah, it does seem as if 2-3 crucial seats have for now moved from the right bloc to the center-left bloc - perhaps directly from Likud to Blue and White. Wonder what the polls look like next week, when the dust has settled.

Can New Right support Gantz, if for example Bibi will be indicted?

No, as hnv1 said, and the explanation is that Gantz is talking about a withdrawal from the West Bank, which goes directly against the principles Bennett and Shaked proclaim, namely: no two-state solution.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AIPAC/status/1099010866853359621

[Velasco]

Blue and White is such a trash name, they should've gone with Israeli Future

Blue and white are Israeli flag colours so maybe they thought it's "patriotic" or something.

If I ever become GodEmperor, I'm passing a law forbidding lame names and forcing parties to choose a name that at least somewhat relates to what they're about.

Israeli Labor Party? Great. United Torah Judaism, sure. "Vigour", "Consolidation", or freaking "Blue White"? Hell no.

"Blue and White" is an "empty signifier". The colours of the national flag in addition to the profile of the candidate are working, according to the polls. I think it's perfect, in terms of electoral marketing

[Walmart_shopper]

Can New Right support Gantz, if for example Bibi will be indicted?

No.

Of course they can. The whole point of the New Right is to form a plausible right wing heir to Bibi, and supporting an indicted right wing nemesis to prop him up is not exactly a slam dunk. I do think they'd prefer Bibi if the mandates are there for a right wing majority, but it's not a simple calculation.

[Walmart_shopper]

I totally get the logic of Netanyahu's maneuvers around Otzma and JH/NU but why does he have to be so open about it.  It seems him being so actively involved to get Otzma above the threshold will lose him moderate/centrist votes to Blue & White.  Is he not better off doing this behind the scenes in smoke filled rooms ?

I think you have a very valid point here and would have preferred for it to take place behind closed doors, but I think the strategy was as follows: it was intended to increase the pressure on JH/NU to do it. There was and remains considerable opposition to the alliance with Otzma within religious Zionist circles.

What's more, to the electorate it conveys the message that the stakes are very high and the risk of a left-wing government is real, which should drive up turnout among the part of the electorate that often stays home but, if they do vote, only vote for Likud. The same segment that Bibi sought to mobilize when he made the statement about Arabs voting in droves during the last election.

A recent poll of national religious voters had support for the Kahanist alliance at about 75 percent. Religious Zionists fear the left more than they fear being fascists.

[Hnv1]

Can New Right support Gantz, if for example Bibi will be indicted?

No.

Of course they can. The whole point of the New Right is to form a plausible right wing heir to Bibi, and supporting an indicted right wing nemesis to prop him up is not exactly a slam dunk. I do think they'd prefer Bibi if the mandates are there for a right wing majority, but it's not a simple calculation.

It is. They can’t support him or they’ll be done with their electorate and one of them would like to succeed Bibi which won’t happen if they crown Gantz

[America Needs R'hllor]

Can New Right support Gantz, if for example Bibi will be indicted?

No.

Of course they can. The whole point of the New Right is to form a plausible right wing heir to Bibi, and supporting an indicted right wing nemesis to prop him up is not exactly a slam dunk. I do think they'd prefer Bibi if the mandates are there for a right wing majority, but it's not a simple calculation.

It is. They can’t support him or they’ll be fine with their electorate and one of them would like to succeed Bibi which won’t happen if they crown Gantz

There's also a huge rift between them and Gantz- they're staunchly right-wing and would never crown someone whose party is, in the end, associated with the center-left.

[DavidB.]

Midgam poll for Yediot Ahronot:

Right-religious bloc 60 seats (parties that would vote for Bibi)
Likud 29
UTJ 7
New Right 6
URWP 5
Shas 5
Kulanu 4
Yisrael Beiteinu 4

Center-left bloc 55 seats (parties that would/could vote for Gantz)
Blue and White 35
Labour 9
Hadash-Ta'al 7
Meretz 4

Balad-Ra'am 5

Gesher, Zehut and others 0

[DL]

Since when is it such a sure thing that Kulanu would back Bibi ober Gantz?

[danny]

Since when is it such a sure thing that Kulanu would back Bibi ober Gantz?

That's what they publicly stated, although I suppose that still doesn't make it a sure thing.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Midgam poll for Yediot Ahronot:

Right-religious bloc 60 seats (parties that would vote for Bibi)
Likud 29
UTJ 7
New Right 6
URWP 5
Shas 5
Kulanu 4
Yisrael Beiteinu 4

Center-left bloc 55 seats (parties that would/could vote for Gantz)
Blue and White 35
Labour 9
Hadash-Ta'al 7
Meretz 4

Balad-Ra'am 5

Gesher, Zehut and others 0

Labour is holding on quite well. I'm pretty satisfied with that, though I hope we can reach double digits. I really hope for 12 seats so we can get Yaya Fink into the Knesset.

The Arabic parties are really in an interesting situation. It looks to me like politically, Tibi made a mistake- if this poll holds, he'll take the 7 he was regularly reaching in polls before the merger and split it with Hadash. And if Balad-Ra'am don't pass the threshold while Hadash-Ta'al win 10-11 seats like some polls suggested the Arabs overall lose seats.

In any case, Gantz can't really get a majority coalition until there's a mass exodus of Likud voters to Blue and White so that he wins, in combination with Labour (that has to stay at about double-digits), Meretz and Kulanu\Gesher 60 seats. That'd require roughly 40 seats for Gantz-Lapid, 10 for Labour, 5 for Meretz and 5 for Gesher or Kulanu, whoever passes the threshold. Fantasy scenario if I ever saw one. Otherwise, it's a minority government supported by the "moderate" Arabs, something many Israelis see as problematic.

[DavidB.]

Some things:

- I think this poll confirms what I've been thinking for a while: Netanyahu still has an easier path to form a government than Gantz, but the gap between the "blocs" has been tightening. This is probably because Blue and White attracted a number of voters worth 1-3 seats from Likud directly following the merger with YA. These could of course be all sorts of voters, but I think Blue and White might be attractive to voters from the former Soviet Union in particular. Most of them will of course still vote for Likud but if enough of them jump ship to Blue and White this might determine the outcome of the election.

- The right bloc depends on a higher number of parties hovering around the threshold: Kulanu, Shas, YB. If even one doesn't make it in, that could have important consequences. And I would even include URWP here, polling at 5-7 seats. It's worth remembering that Yachad were actually in according to all the pre-2015 GE polls. Among the DL public there is now an extreme and imo false sense that URWP are safe, which is probably based on earlier polls that had them at 8-10 seats. I've seen people advertise Zehut using this argument

- The pre-2015 polls were pretty good but overestimated ZU by ~2-3 seats and underestimated Likud by that same amount or more, even taking into account the fact that polls aren't predictions and that Likud had strong momentum during the polling blackout and on e-day: the exit polls had this bias too. ZU were leading Likud in all the polls. I'm not sure if the pollsters have revised their methodology, and we can't discard the possibility that there is, again, a shy Likud vote out there.

- The biggest unknown is obviously the electoral and political effect of a Netanyahu indictment.

In any case, Gantz can't really get a majority coalition until there's a mass exodus of Likud voters to Blue and White so that he wins, in combination with Labour (that has to stay at about double-digits), Meretz and Kulanu\Gesher 60 seats. That'd require roughly 40 seats for Gantz-Lapid, 10 for Labour, 5 for Meretz and 5 for Gesher or Kulanu, whoever passes the threshold. Fantasy scenario if I ever saw one. Otherwise, it's a minority government supported by the "moderate" Arabs, something many Israelis see as problematic.

Exactly, and Netanyahu needs to campaign on this in the second phase of his campaign once the "Gantz is left and weak" mantra he is currently pushing has been ingrained in people's minds.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Exactly, and Netanyahu needs to campaign on this in the second phase of his campaign once the "Gantz is left and weak" mantra he is currently pushing has been ingrained in people's minds.

I'd say that would be hypocrisity considering he's propping up heinous supporters of mass murder who are much worse than Hadash-Ta'al on every parameter, but that's clearly no longer an issue in our politics.

An interesting episode today that showed one of the reasons I became a Labour hack: Shelly Yachimovich said in an election panel that she disqualifies the "heinous" Otzma. When Itamar Ben Gvir's brother, who was sitting in the audience, asked her why she called them heinous, she answered "why? Because they're a heinous, racist party that likes mass murderers, a party that needs to be ashamed of, and instead we see a PM who does everything to legitimize it" and that as a daughter of Holocause survivors, she "can't stand bloodcurdling racism and people who put pictures of murderers in their homes". When she realized the man in the audience was Ben Gvir's brother, she said that "now everything is clear- this is the man who has Baruch Goldstein's picture in his house" and encouraged the audience to boo him, saying "I despise you, I despise you all, a bunch of racists. Are there any other brothers to send to political events? In other countries you'd be puked out of the political system." This passionate and genuine attack on people I have nothing but disgust for is something we'd never see in lukewarm parties like Blue and White, and this is why I still see Labour as the only standard bearer for center-leftists like myself.

[Oryxslayer]

By the way, AJC and AIPAC denounced Bibi earlier this week over his moves to get Otzma in government. Probably has no impact, but its important to note.

[danny]

By the way, AJC and AIPAC denounced Bibi earlier this week over his moves to get Otzma in government. Probably has no impact, but its important to note.

Did they? All I saw was a condemnation of Otzma without mentioning Bibi.

[DavidB.]

By the way, AJC and AIPAC denounced Bibi earlier this week over his moves to get Otzma in government. Probably has no impact, but its important to note.

Did they? All I saw was a condemnation of Otzma without mentioning Bibi.

Exactly. The JPost had an article pointing this out.