Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Hnv1]

Zandberg, Gilon, Rozin, Freg, Slalha (Druze), Maharata (Ethiopian), Raz, Buskila, Lasky, Dabush

Massive massive victory for Gilon, who now has his own faction even in the parliamentary list. Zandberg is a lame duck and I’m voting Ta’al in April

[DavidB.]

Jewish Home and National Union just came to an agreement. The list will be as follows:

1. Rabbi Rafi Peretz
2. Bezalel Smotrich
3. Ofir Sofer
4. Moti Yogev
5. Orit Struk
6. Yifat Erlich
7. Yossi Cohen
8. Rabbi Eli Ben Dahan

Smotrich will get to decide on the first ministerial portfolio in case BY-NU enters the government. If only one BY-NU minister is appointed, there will be a rotation agreement.

Great news, would enthusiastically vote for them. Also happy to see Otzma aren't part of it.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is Livni doomed?

[danny]

Great news, would enthusiastically vote for them. Also happy to see Otzma aren't part of it.

Otzma aren't part of this deal, but they could still join later.

[Vosem]

A recount in the Likud primary has flipped Sa'ar/Erdan (previously fifth and fourth, now fourth and fifth) and Levin/Gallant (previously ninth and eighth, now eighth and ninth). Bibi has also agreed to give up his reserved spot at the 21st to the national list, which bumps (all of these are Class of 2015 freshman MKs) Yoav Kish from 24th to 21st, David Bitan from 25th to 24th, Miki Zohar from 29th to 25th, and gadfly Canadian-immigrant libertarian Sharren Haskel from 37th to 29th. Bibi was lobbied to do this by Bitan and Zohar (who were both already probably in but simply wanted higher slots just in case), but the likely effect of this is that it bumps Haskel from almost certainly not returning to the Knesset to probably coming back.

As far as I know Netanyahu not using one of his spots bumps the entire list up 1 spot, not just the non reserved ones.

It's actually unclear really, Likud has 3 different rules on this. I'll wait for the official list on the 20th.

anyhow, it just shows how Bibi can be squeezed, backbenchers forcing his hands and he wants the Likud all in the line for the indictment. Lame duck

Another recount took place, according to the Times of Israel, which saw Erdan/Sa'ar flip back (with Erdan apparently having edged out Sa'ar by seven votes), Levin's promotion ahead of Gallant confirmed, but Welfare Minister Haim Katz jumping two slots (finishing ahead of Ofir Akunis and Tzachi Hanegbi), with Yuval Steinitz and Tzipi Hotovely (previously seventeenth and sixteenth) also switching. The constant recounts don't seem like a good look for Likud to me, though I guess this is what happens when you hold a bunch of really close elections simultaneously. In any case, all of these people have been returned to the Knesset unless there's some kind of really broad collapse.

Apparently enough people are lobbying for another recount that it will probably be held. At a certain point there need to be rules against this.

According to the Times of Israel in this article (https://www.timesofisrael.com/pms-rival-saar-up-to-third-in-likud-list-after-primaries-vote-recount/) -- ignore its comments about the results of recounts, which have been superseded by further recounting -- the result of Netanyahu cancelling his reserved spot at the 21st is that the national list members all move up one (it notes specifically that Yoav Kish goes from 24th to 21st), while those who hold reserved spots for youth/minorities/regions all stay where they are.

Notably, apparently two of the regional winners, Pinchas Idan and Eti Attiyah (19th and 23rd on the list from the Shfela and Dan regions), are both union representatives (the former is head of the Israel Airport Authority workers union; the latter is an organizer for the Israel Aerospace Industries union) who are allied to Welfare Minister and long-time MK Haim Katz (himself an ally of Gideon Sa'ar, sometimes painted as a within-party foe of Netanyahu; he started as a representative of the left-wing single-issue pro-union party Am Ehad; he crossed the floor to join Likud in 2003). Bloc voting really works, folks.

Jewish Home and National Union just came to an agreement. The list will be as follows:

1. Rabbi Rafi Peretz
2. Bezalel Smotrich
3. Ofir Sofer
4. Moti Yogev
5. Orit Struk
6. Yifat Erlich
7. Yossi Cohen
8. Rabbi Eli Ben Dahan

Smotrich will get to decide on the first ministerial portfolio in case BY-NU enters the government. If only one BY-NU minister is appointed, there will be a rotation agreement.

Great news, would enthusiastically vote for them. Also happy to see Otzma aren't part of it.

Jewish Home has generally polled significantly better than National Union/Tkuma this year, so a 50:50 spread is a really good result for Smotrich, actually. Might be explained by the fact that Peretz is a "star leader" for Jewish Home rather than someone steeped in the party and so doesn't really care how many seats specifically Jewish Home (rather than religious Zionism as a whole) gets.

[DavidB.]

Great news, would enthusiastically vote for them. Also happy to see Otzma aren't part of it.

Otzma aren't part of this deal, but they could still join later.

True, but I don't think that's likely (or at least I hope so) - and, for whatever it's worth, already heard hearsay from Israelis who are sort of connected that Otzma would run alone. Given that this is Israel this could change anytime, but still.

Apart from the fact that they're crazy, troublemakers, and unreliable, Otzma would make things more complicated and demand more than they deserve. Very sad if ~1-2% of (right-wing) votes end up in the bin, but including Otzma would probably also push some potential BY-NU voters to Bennett, and I doubt there are that many people who can't settle for Smotrich (without Bennett leading the thing) and really need a more right-wing option.

[Vosem]

Meretz held its first-ever party primaries today, having previously used a convention system. Party leader MK Tamar Zandberg held the first spot automatically; the remainder of the slots simply go to whoever has the most votes. A fairly diverse list resulted. Following her the following will receive realistic spots:

2. MK Ilan Gilon
3. MK Michal Rozin
4. MK Issawi Frej (represents Arab sector)
~~first 4 spots are pretty safe; all go to incumbents~~
5. education reformer Ali Shalalhah (Druze)
6. reality-show star/Tel Aviv Deputy Mayor Mehereta Baruch-Ron (Ethiopian)
~~more than 6 is unlikely~~
7. MK Mossi Raz
8. Peace Now Director Avi Buskila
~~beyond this is basically impossible~~

There is some speculation that Meretz may form a joint list with Labor, both of whom are above but fairly close to the threshold, but Labor leader Avi Gabbay has voiced opposition to the idea.

[Vosem]

Also, in more minor right-wing party news, disgraced one-term Likud MK Oren Hazan apparently intends to withdraw from his (unrealistic) spot on the Likud list and run as the head of his own party. I doubt that he can cross the threshold (especially given his, er, not great result in the Likud primary), but he's prominent enough to get a lot of media attention and be a thorn in the side of the main right-wing campaign.

[DavidB.]

Also, in more minor right-wing party news, disgraced one-term Likud MK Oren Hazan apparently intends to withdraw from his (unrealistic) spot on the Likud list and run as the head of his own party. I doubt that he can cross the threshold (especially given his, er, not great result in the Likud primary), but he's prominent enough to get a lot of media attention and be a thorn in the side of the main right-wing campaign.

Yeah, apparently his negotiations for a spot on the Otzma list also went nowhere.

As for your last point, I doubt it. If he really runs on his own it would not be media attention in the "politics" section but in "entertainment" - where he belongs.

[Hnv1]

due to bad polling Livni will probably announce her retirement today.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Some other news:
New poll from reputeable pollster- Likud 30, Gantz down to 18, Yesh Atid at 12, Labour up to  10, New Right, UTJ and Ta'al all at 7, Shas at 6, Kulanu, Meretz and the Joint Arab List at 5, andJH+NU at 4. Of the minor parties: Otzma at 3%, Orly Levi at 2% (lol), Hathuah at 1.8% and Zehut at less than 1%.

As expected, Orly Levi realized that her dreams of a big independent party aren't going to happen and is running back to Gantz. Negotiations are in advanced stages and it looks like the parties are hoping to reach a deal today or tomorrow, with Gantz giving Levi many of her socioeconomic goals.

Otzma is preparing an independent run and offered far-right Attorney Yoram Sheftel, who famously defended nazi criminal Ivan Demjanjuk in trial, to lead the party in the election. Not gonna say it's ironic, buuut the laws that Otzma's spiritual father, Kahana, tried to  submit in the Knesset did sound a lot like the nuremberg laws... The Likud, meanwhile, are continuing to aggressively advocate for a union between Otzma and the JH-NU list, saying they would be irresponsible not to unite when Livni is dropping out and Levi-Gantz are uniting.

And yeah, Livni is going to drop out today. Good move from her- she's proving again and again her worth as a great and underrated stateswoman.

[Hnv1]

It's interesting to see what the rest of the Livni faction will do. They still have party funding and it will be prudent for parties like Meretz and Labour to try and pull them in for the funds.

I doubt Hasson will want to end his political career right now

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Apparently Reuters claim that canceling of V4 summit in Israel will somehow negatively affect Netanyahu reputation before the elections. What do you think about that?

[danny]

Apparently Reuters claim that canceling of V4 summit in Israel will somehow negatively affect Netanyahu reputation before the elections. What do you think about that?

I doubt that, especially considering the reason it was cancelled.

[Hnv1]

Apparently Reuters claim that canceling of V4 summit in Israel will somehow negatively affect Netanyahu reputation before the elections. What do you think about that?

I'm sure he's fuming as he personally see it as a strategic necessity. But the electoral effect is minuscule, even if it shows he's not the all mighty diplomat he thinks he is, his base hardly knows who the V4 are and a feud on Jewish pride is even recommended for them.

Katz on the other hand just lost a lot of credit and weight in the appointment game after April 9th 

[DavidB.]

Apparently Reuters claim that canceling of V4 summit in Israel will somehow negatively affect Netanyahu reputation before the elections. What do you think about that?

Probably won't have any effect, but if it does, it will probably help: standing strong against historical revisionism and all that.

In reality it is obviously a major screw-up that was completely avoidable. This time it's Katz and Netanyahu who were at fault.

[Boobs]

Good night my queen. too good for this country

[DavidB.]

Meanwhile, sweaty Bibi has been begging like a dog to have a meeting with Smotrich and Peretz to have them strike an agreement with Otzma. They basically told him to shove it and they're right: if Bibi wants Otzma in so badly, why doesn't he conclude an alliance with them himself?

[Vosem]

Yesh Atid has revealed the first 30 members of its list, as negotiations of a merger with Hosen seem to have gone poorly, while Gantz continues to negotiate with Orly Levy. Since the start of 2019, all polls that have Yesh Atid running independently have gotten them at least 9 seats, while the absolute maximum they've hit has been 17. They are at an average of about 12. Here are the top 17 candidates:

1. Party leader, former Finance Minister, MK Yair Lapid
2. Former Welfare Minister, MK Meir Cohen
3. MK Ofer Shelah
4. first female major-general Orna Barbivai (new star candidate)
5. Former Health Minister, MK Yael German
6. MK Karin Elharar
7. MK Yoel Razvozov
8. MK Mickey Levy
9. MK Elazar Stern
^^above this is basically certain
10. MK Pnina Tamano-Shata
11. former Shin Bet deputy director Ram Ben-Barak (new candidate)
12. former Israeli Police anti-fraud unit head Yoav Segalovich (new candidate)
^^above this is likely
13. Former MK Boaz Toporovsky
14. attorney/LGBT rights activist Idan Roll
15. Yesh Atid youth wing head Yorai Lahav-Hertzanu
16. MK Aliza Lavie
17. journalist Tehila Friedman-Nachalon
^^above this is possible

Below 17 is a bunch of obscure figures who are not very likely to reach the Knesset.

[Vosem]

Meanwhile, Gabbai has been rejected by star candidates he's trying to appoint to his slots on the Labor list, including popular Beersheba Mayor Ruvik Danilovich and retiring Yesh Atid MK Haim Yellin.

Tzipi Livni has announced that she will not be running in the upcoming elections. She would've been a pretty logical choice for Gabbai to appoint to one of his guaranteed slots but, whoops, looks like that's not a possibility.

Oren Hazan will be calling his party Tzomet, which was the name of a party run by right-wing general Rafael Eitan from 1987-1999. (Amusingly, it was because of Tzomet's anomalously high performance in 1992 bringing total nobodies into the Knesset that the Oslo Accords passed in the first place, so the party had arguably had a more significant role in Israeli history than most of its type). Remains to be seen whether he can recruit Gonen Segev (a member of the original Tzomet who became Energy Minister and whose efforts passed the Oslo Accords, who went on to smuggle thousands of ecstasy tablets into Israel and spy for Iran) to run with him.

[DavidB.]

Remains to be seen whether he can recruit Gonen Segev (a member of the original Tzomet who became Energy Minister and whose efforts passed the Oslo Accords, who went on to smuggle thousands of ecstasy tablets into Israel and spy for Iran) to run with him.

Maybe in 11 years, when Segev gets out of jail. But I have a feeling that Hazan isn't too keen on Oslo...

Apparently BY/NU want a combined list with the New Right and Likud. Probably won't happen, and that's a good thing, because it removes the possibility for voters to decide on the balance of power within the right-wing camp as the order of the list would be fixed.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Gabbay will most likely not use these spots. He tried to get Danilovich, who's very popular, to the 2nd spot but he rejected him like he rejected basically anyone in the past elections. He tried to get Yalin to the 10th spot but Yalin didn't want to switch parties. Overall, pretty logical choices, and generally the campaign labour is running has been pretty good.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Meanwhile, a new and depressing poll of 800 religious zionists:
79.27% support a union with Otzma. 71.05% believe that the JH-NU are mistaken to refuse the union.
Let me just point out a few of the things Meir Kahana did:

* Supported a theocracy controlled by religious Jewish laws
* Supported deportations for all Arab Israelis
* Submitted a law to take Israeli citizenship from all non-Jews
* Submitted a law to deport all non-Jews from Jerusalem
* Submitted a law making marriage or sexual relations between Jews and non-Jews illegal
* Submitted a law making separate beaches for Jews and non Jews
* Submitted a law that was supposed to forcefully divorce mixed couples
* Submitted a law that would let non-Jews live in Israel only if they accepted forced labour and taxes
* Instructed his men to conduct terrorist attacks against Soviet and Arabic diplomats, as well as American targets
*Submitted innocent Arabic citizens letters making threats if they do not accept the terms for living in Israel I've mentioned above
*Mass-murdering terrorist Baruch Goldstein was his pupil

And that's just a few choice things. Former MK Michael Eitan from Likud correctly called the laws Kahane submitted "Nuremberg Laws", and I'll leave it to your judgement, but I believe there is no escape from calling this man what he is. Now, Otzma is made up of his pupils and its leaders praise him as a spiritual father and consider themselves his heirs.

During Kahane's time as an MK, his speeches in the Knesset were boycotted by all other parties and he spoke before an empty chamber. His party was later deemed illegal for undermining the basic fundamental of Israel. Today, our PM is trying to tie his heirs into a legitimate right-wing party and get them into our legislative body. At the same time, these evil men are increasingly legitimized by large segements of the Israeli right. I, for one, will continue to view them as an illegitimate, violent force with an ideology very similar to nazism. At least until they renounce Kahane. It will be a sad day if the party representing religious zionism, JH, will ally with a fundamentally evil and hateful force.

[DavidB.]

Anecdotally, the political picture seems to be the same among my acquaintances, who also seem to want BY/NU to unite with Otzma. I've seen angry messages from some people on FB 'threatening' to vote for Otzma if they don't unite. I'm slightly worried that BY/NU will not reach the threshold because of this.

[_]

Anecdotally, the political picture seems to be the same among my acquaintances, who also seem to want BY/NU to unite with Otzma. I've seen angry messages from some people on FB 'threatening' to vote for Otzma if they don't unite. I'm slightly worried that BY/NU will not reach the threshold because of this.

If they go down the threshold by not uniting with Otzma, at least they'll be going down with honor and basic decency.