Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Lord Halifax]

I have some questions that I hope you can help me with. E.g. I'm having trouble understanding the coalition dynamics.

a) What's the significance of Lapid and Gantz running on a joint list?

b) Are the ultra-orthodox parties more likely to back a single larger party rather than a coalition of two smaller parties?

c) How many seats would Gantz & Lapid need to win in order to jointly form a government?

d) What's the chance Netanyahu won't be indicted by the election? I read that the prosecutor will recommend that he be indicted within the next month, but Netanyahu will be able to drag out the hearing process for months.

e) I can't figure out how likely Gantz and Lapid are to ally with the Joint List if it would bring them to 61 seats. Some sources say a coalition with the Arabs is completely unlikely, whereas others consider it a realistic possibility.

[Vosem]

Jerusalem Post reports that the top two finishers are likely to be Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein and Housing Minister Yoav Galant, who switched from Kulanu for this election with Netanyahu's blessing and is in the running for Defense Minister. Edelstein isn't a close Bibi ally (Galant has been running as one in these primaries, though that smells opportunistic to me), but this probably means that Sa'ar is doing relatively poorly, which is a good result for Bibi all things considered.

[Vosem]

I have some questions that I hope you can help me with. E.g. I'm having trouble understanding the coalition dynamics.

a) What's the significance of Lapid and Gantz running on a joint list?

It would formalize an alliance and make it likelier that they could place ahead of Likud in the election, which should be useful for coalition negotiations. Also, doing this would make it likelier that the narrative of the election is Gantz vs. Netanyahu, mano a mano, which would help Gantz's party and anyone together on their list win more seats even if they do not form the government.

b) Are the ultra-orthodox parties more likely to back a single larger party rather than a coalition of two smaller parties?

Polls have shown that larger parties will tend to take votes from smaller ones, so the creation of large lists should work to minimize the number of parties in the Knesset, making government creation easier. However, Yesh Atid (Lapid's party) is a very secularist outfit, and Gantz has hit some secularist themes as well. The ultra-orthodox parties are unlikely to back Gantz for Prime Minister.

c) How many seats would Gantz & Lapid need to win in order to jointly form a government?

Depends on how many seats Likud wins and what smaller parties make it in. Forced to give a ballpark estimate, I would say "mid-to-high single digits more than Likud", but depending on which smaller parties make it in it might be more or less. Simply coming in first place, assuming a relatively constant assortment of minor parties, is nowhere close to enough, as Tzipi Livni learned in 2009 when she lead Kadima and was the main anti-Netanyahu candidate for Prime Minister.

d) What's the chance Netanyahu won't be indicted by the election? I read that the prosecutor will recommend that he be indicted within the next month, but Netanyahu will be able to drag out the hearing process for months.

The process is very murky, but there have been leaks that figures within Likud and opposition figures have been preparing a response to an indictment, so it seems that the possibility that Netanyahu is indicted is very real.

e) I can't figure out how likely Gantz and Lapid are to ally with the Joint List if it would bring them to 61 seats. Some sources say a coalition with the Arabs is completely unlikely, whereas others consider it a realistic possibility.

A coalition has never been done and would be very unlikely. In the past, the left has done "blocking agreements" with non-nationalist non-religious Arab parties (Hadash, which is a component of the Joint List, and Mada, which no longer exists). Seeking Hadash's support while keeping them outside of the coalition would have precedent (though the 1992-1996 government that did this had much more left-wing leadership than Gantz and Lapid; Avoda+Meretz had 56 seats in those days); it would be unprecedented (and very unlikely) for Balad, Ra'am, or Ta'al. Gantz and Lapid are more right-wing figures than Rabin and might struggle to pick up support even from Hadash in any case.

[Vosem]

Jerusalem Post reports that the top two finishers are likely to be Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein and Housing Minister Yoav Galant, who switched from Kulanu for this election with Netanyahu's blessing and is in the running for Defense Minister. Edelstein isn't a close Bibi ally (Galant has been running as one in these primaries, though that smells opportunistic to me), but this probably means that Sa'ar is doing relatively poorly, which is a good result for Bibi all things considered.

On the other hand, Arutz Sheva has a "top ten so far" published, noting that only 18% has been counted and things could still shift, which concurs that Edelstein is in first but has Sa'ar in second and Galant further off (though still in the top ten). Likud is expected to hit the low thirties in seats and will probably rise in the event of a Gantz v. Netanyahu showdown (but may fall in the event of a Netanyahu indictment). Still, top ten are basically guaranteed spots in the Knesset. So, top ten right now according to Arutz Sheva:

1) Knesset Speaker Yoel Edelstein
2) Former Interior Minister and former MK Gilad Sa'ar (returnee)
3) Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan
4) Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz
5) Culture Minister Miri Regev
6) former Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat (new)
7) Tourism Minister Yariv Levin
Housing Minister Yoav Galant
9) MK, former Public Security Minister Avi Dichter
10) Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Tzipi Hotovely

All apart from Sa'ar and Barkat are incumbents, and Sa'ar is a former long-time Knesset member. Dichter and Hotovely are not ministers, though both are pretty prominent members of the caucus. Both had also struggled to win reasonable spots in the 2015 primaries, so it's interesting that they seem to have done better. It's believed that Galant, Dichter, and MK Anat Berko (who Arutz Sheva is not reporting as a top ten finisher) are under consideration for Defense Minister if Netanyahu is reelected; Arutz Sheva seems to think Galant and Dichter did about equally well. (Interestingly, both are converts to the Likud from more moderate parties -- Dichter from Kadima and Galant from Kulanu).

[America Needs R'hllor]

Right now, it seems like this is the trajectory:

Minister Katz and Speaker Edlestein are in a close fight for first place, Katz narrowly leading right now. Sa'ar is third, followed closely by Erdan and Regev, who are struggling for the 4th and 5th places. Looks like Sa'ar did pretty well, which Bibi can't be happy with.

Next on we see Minister Levin, who Bibi heavily promoted, at 6th, while the two newcomers- Jerusalem  Mayor Barkat and Kulanu defector Galant- are struggling for 7th and 8th which is great for them, with Barkat currently 7th. Minister Gamliel, who wants to be Education Minister, is pretty far from them at 9th which is 10th on the list including Bibi. Avi Dichter, former Kadima defector who barely got into the list last time around, is at 10th aka 11th- he wants to be Defense Minister like Galant and I wouldn't be surprised if he runs to replace Bibi when the time comes. Others who positioned themselves well today- Katz if he comes first, Edlestein though he doesn't seem that ambitious to me, definitely Sa'ar who won a great place despite Netanyahu viciously attacking him, and possibly Barkat, who held the jumping pad of Jerusalem Mayor.

Likely to be booted off the realistic places: controversial MK Oren Hazan and Minister Ayoob Kara. I also believe MK Yehuda Glick, who wants to abolish conscription, will not get in (sadly- he's an incredibly fascinating man).

MKs who seem likely not to get in: Oren Hazan, Ayoob Kara, Anat Berko, Nurit Koren, Nava Boker and Yehuda Glick
Liberal darling Share Haskel probably gets in at 29th place... And with all the reserved seats Ayoob Kara, who came right after her in the primary itself, will be 38th on the final list, which is very unlikely to get in.

[America Needs R'hllor]

In the Tel Aviv region's reserved spot (31st on the final list) there's currently a tight proxy battle- David Sharen, former Bibi Chief of Staff currently investigated for corruption in the submarine investigation VS Shir Michal, former Sa'ar secretary. Michal is narrowly leading right now, despite Bibi pointedly endorsing Sharen. Update: Sharen leading now.

Current top 10:
1. Yisrael Katz
2. Yuli Edlestein
3. Gideon Sa'ar
4. Gilad Erdan
5. Miri Regev
6. Nir Barkat
7. Yariv Levin
8. Yoav Galant
9. Gila Gamliel
10. Avi Dichter

[Hnv1]

Hazan and Boker out is great news, sadly Zohar is still in the top 30. Bittan took a slight hit which is also good.
It will be interesting to see if Bibi pass by Saar and doesn't give him a cabinet seat after the election

[America Needs R'hllor]

Hazan and Boker out is great news, sadly Zohar is still in the top 30. Bittan took a slight hit which is also good.
It will be interesting to see if Bibi pass by Saar and doesn't give him a cabinet seat after the election

I'm disappointed that traitor Ohana did well. But yeah, generally the list isn't bad considering it's Likud. Especially interesting that Sa'ar did so well despite the vicious attacks by the Netanyahu family- it really shows that his power isn't unlimited in the party.

[Hnv1]

Hazan and Boker out is great news, sadly Zohar is still in the top 30. Bittan took a slight hit which is also good.
It will be interesting to see if Bibi pass by Saar and doesn't give him a cabinet seat after the election

I'm disappointed that traitor Ohana did well. But yeah, generally the list isn't bad considering it's Likud. Especially interesting that Sa'ar did so well despite the vicious attacks by the Netanyahu family- it really shows that his power isn't unlimited in the party.

He was always popular with the membership and some are hedging their bets for the day after when it's Katz vs Sa'ar

[America Needs R'hllor]

Final top 15:
1. Netanyahu
2. Edlestein
3. Katz
4. Erdan
5. Sa'ar
6. Regev
7. Galant
8. Levin
9. Barkat
10. Gamliel
11. Dichter
12. Elkin
13. Akunis
14. Hanegbi
15. Katz (Haim)

If I had to guess right now, this is the next Likud leadership race: Sa'ar vs Erdan vs Katz vs Barkat vs Dichter vs a few random no-names. I guess Edlestein could join seeing his popularity, but he doesn't seem like the type to me. I do believe Sa'ar is favoured right now- he not only withstood a vicious onslaught from a popular PM and an absence of four years to return to the top 5, very close to top 3, but also beat Bibi's crook in the Tel Aviv region. If anyone has a chance to keep the Likus together after Bibi leaves, it seems like it's him.

[Hnv1]

Final top 15:
1. Netanyahu
2. Edlestein
3. Katz
4. Erdan
5. Sa'ar
6. Regev
7. Galant
8. Levin
9. Barkat
10. Gamliel
11. Dichter
12. Elkin
13. Akunis
14. Hanegbi
15. Katz (Haim)

If I had to guess right now, this is the next Likud leadership race: Sa'ar vs Erdan vs Katz vs Barkat vs Dichter vs a few random no-names. I guess Edlestein could join seeing his popularity, but he doesn't seem like the type to me. I do believe Sa'ar is favoured right now- he not only withstood a vicious onslaught from a popular PM and an absence of four years to return to the top 5, very close to top 3, but also beat Bibi's crook in the Tel Aviv region. If anyone has a chance to keep the Likus together after Bibi leaves, it seems like it's him.

a lot of incumbents found themselves towards the end, but I will note number 34 on the list May Golan who might even get in. She was very active against the refugees in South Tel Aviv, has links to Khanist groups, and a foul mouth that even Regev might pale.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Final top 15:
1. Netanyahu
2. Edlestein
3. Katz
4. Erdan
5. Sa'ar
6. Regev
7. Galant
8. Levin
9. Barkat
10. Gamliel
11. Dichter
12. Elkin
13. Akunis
14. Hanegbi
15. Katz (Haim)

If I had to guess right now, this is the next Likud leadership race: Sa'ar vs Erdan vs Katz vs Barkat vs Dichter vs a few random no-names. I guess Edlestein could join seeing his popularity, but he doesn't seem like the type to me. I do believe Sa'ar is favoured right now- he not only withstood a vicious onslaught from a popular PM and an absence of four years to return to the top 5, very close to top 3, but also beat Bibi's crook in the Tel Aviv region. If anyone has a chance to keep the Likus together after Bibi leaves, it seems like it's him.

a lot of incumbents found themselves towards the end, but I will note number 34 on the list May Golan who might even get in. She was very active against the refugees in South Tel Aviv, has links to Khanist groups, and a foul mouth that even Regev might pale.

Interesting. She seems to have potential to be the next Hazan.

[DavidB.]

+ Miki "stronkest race" Zohar will be in again. I don't want Likud to get too boring. Shame Oren "P.I.M.P." Hazan, Nava "love me some Eyal Golan" Boker and Yaron "love me some Elor Azaria" Mazuz didn't make it.

And (genuinely) sad that Neguise is out, he was a decent guy. Not sad about Glick, who failed to side with Elor.

Why do you dislike Ohana, Parrotguy?

[Hnv1]

+ Miki "stronkest race" Zohar will be in again. I don't want Likud to get too boring. Shame Oren "P.I.M.P." Hazan, Nava "love me some Eyal Golan" Boker and Yaron "love me some Elor Azaria" Mazuz didn't make it.

And (genuinely) sad that Neguise is out, he was a decent guy. Not sad about Glick, who failed to side with Elor.

Why do you dislike Ohana, Parrotguy?

Negusa is in, 28th on the list I think

[DavidB.]

Oh, good!

[Vosem]

Yeah, Arutz Sheva has Neguise at 28th (though probably 30th after Bibi appoints his choice to slots 21 and 28), which isn't a guarantee but is by no means out.

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Shame about Haskel -- I was a fan. As for the Bibi slots, Michael Oren has been speculated about as a possibility; last time, he picked Benny Begin and Anat Berko, neither of whom got reasonable slots (the former didn't even run), so possibly it'll be one of them again. There's been speculation that he'll try to merge with a minor right-wing party by giving them some slots, especially Jewish Home (which might leave Smotrich running independently).

[danny]

a lot of incumbents found themselves towards the end, but I will note number 34 on the list May Golan who might even get in. She was very active against the refugees in South Tel Aviv, has links to Khanist groups, and a foul mouth that even Regev might pale.

Interesting. She seems to have potential to be the next Hazan.

I don't think Hazan was unusually Right wing for Likud, he was just a generally horrible person outside of his opinions in the way he treated people. As far as I know May Golan isn't like that, she's a more normal person that is to the right of what you would expect in the Likud.

[Hnv1]

a lot of incumbents found themselves towards the end, but I will note number 34 on the list May Golan who might even get in. She was very active against the refugees in South Tel Aviv, has links to Khanist groups, and a foul mouth that even Regev might pale.

Interesting. She seems to have potential to be the next Hazan.

I don't think Hazan was unusually Right wing for Likud, he was just a generally horrible person outside of his opinions in the way he treated people. As far as I know May Golan isn't like that, she's a more normal person that is to the right of what you would expect in the Likud.

I've seen her interview, she has a foul mouth, maybe not as daft as Hazan but very much prone to outrageous statements

Number 27 is Shlomo Karai'i, who could basically  be in the National Union.
So we lost some mupptes like Hazan and Boker but the list did tilt to the right.

I am also happy to see the New Likudniks completely failed, I've been saying for years how pointless it all was.

[Famous Mortimer]

a lot of incumbents found themselves towards the end, but I will note number 34 on the list May Golan who might even get in. She was very active against the refugees in South Tel Aviv, has links to Khanist groups, and a foul mouth that even Regev might pale.

Interesting. She seems to have potential to be the next Hazan.

I don't think Hazan was unusually Right wing for Likud, he was just a generally horrible person outside of his opinions in the way he treated people. As far as I know May Golan isn't like that, she's a more normal person that is to the right of what you would expect in the Likud.

I've seen her interview, she has a foul mouth, maybe not as daft as Hazan but very much prone to outrageous statements

Number 27 is Shlomo Karai'i, who could basically  be in the National Union.
So we lost some mupptes like Hazan and Boker but the list did tilt to the right.

I am also happy to see the New Likudniks completely failed, I've been saying for years how pointless it all was.

What's the deal with the New Likudniks?

Are they really just trolling Meretz voters.

Or are they economically populist conservatives?

[danny]

What's the deal with the New Likudniks?

Or are they economically populist conservatives?

Closer to the opposite, economically liberal, more moderate or left regarding national issues and the judiciary.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Why do you dislike Ohana, Parrotguy?

He ran as someone who will advance LGBTQ issues but then he just completely sold out and lied to the LGBTQ community many times. It was all to advance himself. He doesn't actually care about the rest of us- in fact, he was ready to tarnish and smear the community, when for example he took a security detail to a pride parade, implying that the gays are the violent ones and that he needs protection from us.

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the deal with the New Likudniks?

Or are they economically populist conservatives?

Closer to the opposite, economically liberal, more moderate or left regarding national issues and the judiciary.

So they're neo-liberals? I thought they came out of the housing protests?

[DavidB.]

What's the deal with the New Likudniks?

Or are they economically populist conservatives?

Closer to the opposite, economically liberal, more moderate or left regarding national issues and the judiciary.

So they're neo-liberals? I thought they came out of the housing protests?

Wouldn't say "neo"liberal - they're just liberal (in the non-American sense of the word, that is). In Israel this actually makes sense, considering that government regulations and the power of the Israel Land Authority are a big part of the reason why housing is so damn expensive, just like the extensive protectionist regulations, kept in place to keep the unions silent and the oligarchs happy, make the cost of living so expensive.

[danny]

So they're neo-liberals? I thought they came out of the housing protests?

It was set up by some marketing guy. Technically following the social protests, but that doesn't mean much, as lots of people of varying opinions participated in those protests.

[Hnv1]

What's the deal with the New Likudniks?

Or are they economically populist conservatives?

Closer to the opposite, economically liberal, more moderate or left regarding national issues and the judiciary.

So they're neo-liberals? I thought they came out of the housing protests?

I don't think neo-liberalism actually means anything, but if you must they're liberal in the european sense, they can vote YA or Ganz but probably most will feel a bit odd with Labour. Very middle class.