Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Oryxslayer]

Well, it fairly clear the election will now be permanently framed as a two horse race. Might kill the chances of some minors to get in, if there is monumental pressure to cast a 'meaningful' vote for the big two.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Big news, indeed. Ashkenazi is a strong card because, unlike the tailormade, tall, well-spoken general image of Gantz, he has the ragged general image which is very different and appeals to different people. I'm still very skeptical about this, but it's definitely a horserace of two right now. I just hope Labour and Meretz can weather the storm and keep the flag of the zionist left flying. Apparently, Zandberg is now pushing hard for a union with Labour and Gabbay isn't outright opposing it.

Now, after Netanyahu made a pact with the evil forces, this election kinda feels to me like Star Wars

[America Needs R'hllor]

Arye Deri, leader of Shas and another morally bankrupt and dead on the inside man, said that he has more in common with Itamar Ben Gvir (reminder: the man who has the portrait of mass-murderer Baruch Goldstein in his home and refused to remove it, and previously threatened to murder Isaac Rabin) than with Yair Lapid.

Honestly? These people are killing our country. By saying that, they're pissing on the memory of the holocaust and everything this country means. If Itamar Ben Gvir gets into a government, the Zionist dream is dead.

[DavidB.]

Good that Lapid and Gantz have united, makes the race more interesting. Since the election is mainly about bloc strength rather than about party strength, I'm personally not completely sure it was a smart move from Gantz to unite with Lapid: I am very skeptical they will attract the number of Likud voters necessary to get to 61. Even if Gantz/Lapid get to 36-37 seats and top the poll, where do they go from there? They presumably suck the life out of Labour, who would get to 5-7 seats, and Meretz wit 4-5 seats - so say you're at 47-48 then. They should hope Gesher and Kulanu will both get in and will both reject Bibi, who will possibly have been indicted by then. Still doesn't get you to 61 and this already requires quite a bit of luck. I don't think Balad and Ta'al will nominate Gantz after his populist campaign videos cheering on the death toll in Gaza. You'd have a coalition depending on an ideological range from Kulanu to Hadash and every single one of them would have to agree on it. Not impossible, but difficult as hell for sure.

Meanwhile the math remains much easier for Bibi. Even if he is like 5 seats behind and gets to 32 or so, he might only need the New Right, BY-NU/Otzma and the Haredim. He may either already be at 61 or be in the high 50s - if YB gets in, he's definitely there already. If not, it's trickier and Kulanu/Gesher would be kingmakers.

In essence all of this is about a) getting a sizeable enough number of right-wing voters to vote for Gantz/Lapid and b) having a convincing argument for Kulanu/Gesher to support Gantz over Bibi. I suppose they try to achieve a) by putting Ashkenazi on the slate and b) by uniting and becoming so much bigger than Likud that it will be illogical for Kulanu/Gesher to reject Gantz, especially after an indictment. It's the only shot Gantz has, so if I were him, I would be doing exactly the same even if doing b) by uniting with Lapid may jeopardize the prospects of a). But it would still take a ton of luck for it to work out.

[Walmart_shopper]

Good that Lapid and Gantz have united, makes the race more interesting. Since the election is mainly about bloc strength rather than about party strength, I'm personally not completely sure it was a smart move from Gantz to unite with Lapid: I am very skeptical they will attract the number of Likud voters necessary to get to 61. Even if Gantz/Lapid get to 36-37 seats and top the poll, where do they go from there? They presumably suck the life out of Labour, who would get to 5-7 seats, and Meretz wit 4-5 seats - so say you're at 47-48 then. They should hope Gesher and Kulanu will both get in and will both reject Bibi, who will possibly have been indicted by then. Still doesn't get you to 61 and this already requires quite a bit of luck. I don't think Balad and Ta'al will nominate Gantz after his populist campaign videos cheering on the death toll in Gaza. You'd have a coalition depending on an ideological range from Kulanu to Hadash and every single one of them would have to agree on it. Not impossible, but difficult as hell for sure.

Meanwhile the math remains much easier for Bibi. Even if he is like 5 seats behind and gets to 32 or so, he might only need the New Right, BY-NU/Otzma and the Haredim. He may either already be at 61 or be in the high 50s - if YB gets in, he's definitely there already. If not, it's trickier and Kulanu/Gesher would be kingmakers.

In essence all of this is about a) getting a sizeable enough number of right-wing voters to vote for Gantz/Lapid and b) having a convincing argument for Kulanu/Gesher to support Gantz over Bibi. I suppose they try to achieve a) by putting Ashkenazi on the slate and b) by uniting and becoming so much bigger than Likud that it will be illogical for Kulanu/Gesher to reject Gantz, especially after an indictment. It's the only shot Gantz has, so if I were him, I would be doing exactly the same even if doing b) by uniting with Lapid may jeopardize the prospects of a). But it would still take a ton of luck for it to work out.

This is conventional wisdom, but I'm not that's it's really so wise. It's true that Kahlon, if he even gets his four mandates, will have a hard time joining a government with Hadash in it. But I'm not sure he'll feel particularly good about joining a Kahanist government led by a prime minister under indictment. Gantz actually said something very interesting yesterday. He flayed Bibi for backing the BY-Fascist unity deal, and he said that it would be like allowing Balad into government. It makes you wonder if Ayman Odeh, who is actually one of the more reasonable voices in Israeli politics, has spoken to Gantz already about future coalitions. He could easily split the Joint List and ditch Balad to get Gantz to 61.

But I'm not sure it will even come to that. If it comes down to a government with Meretz and Labor in it versus a theocratic one, I suspect Lieberman squeezes every Ruble out of the budget that he can and goes with the people who will legislate civil marriage and religious freedom, which is by farore important to his voters than enabling Bibi to set fire to the judiciary. Gantz's path to 61is tough, but probably no less tough than it is for the right's Kahanist Alliance.

[Famous Mortimer]

Good that Lapid and Gantz have united, makes the race more interesting. Since the election is mainly about bloc strength rather than about party strength, I'm personally not completely sure it was a smart move from Gantz to unite with Lapid: I am very skeptical they will attract the number of Likud voters necessary to get to 61. Even if Gantz/Lapid get to 36-37 seats and top the poll, where do they go from there? They presumably suck the life out of Labour, who would get to 5-7 seats, and Meretz wit 4-5 seats - so say you're at 47-48 then. They should hope Gesher and Kulanu will both get in and will both reject Bibi, who will possibly have been indicted by then. Still doesn't get you to 61 and this already requires quite a bit of luck. I don't think Balad and Ta'al will nominate Gantz after his populist campaign videos cheering on the death toll in Gaza. You'd have a coalition depending on an ideological range from Kulanu to Hadash and every single one of them would have to agree on it. Not impossible, but difficult as hell for sure.

Meanwhile the math remains much easier for Bibi. Even if he is like 5 seats behind and gets to 32 or so, he might only need the New Right, BY-NU/Otzma and the Haredim. He may either already be at 61 or be in the high 50s - if YB gets in, he's definitely there already. If not, it's trickier and Kulanu/Gesher would be kingmakers.

In essence all of this is about a) getting a sizeable enough number of right-wing voters to vote for Gantz/Lapid and b) having a convincing argument for Kulanu/Gesher to support Gantz over Bibi. I suppose they try to achieve a) by putting Ashkenazi on the slate and b) by uniting and becoming so much bigger than Likud that it will be illogical for Kulanu/Gesher to reject Gantz, especially after an indictment. It's the only shot Gantz has, so if I were him, I would be doing exactly the same even if doing b) by uniting with Lapid may jeopardize the prospects of a). But it would still take a ton of luck for it to work out.

Gantz/Yesh Atid is not trying to form a left-wing coalition. They are trying to get more seats than Likud and force them into a grand coalition.

[DavidB.]

Welcome to the forum! You do have to tell me where I can find that Walmart in Israel.

Otzma will of course not be in the government. Another Amona will happen someday and Ben-Ari doesn't want to be responsible for it. The Otzma MK(s) will just have to vote for Bibi and that's it. And the notion that the government would be Kahanist if one or two Kahanist MPs vote for it because they dislike the alternative (Gantz) more is a frame that should be rejected by everyone who is not a hack. We can do without frames like "Kahanist alliance". I'm also going to try and restrain myself from editorializing too much.

However, indeed, it remains true that Kahlon won't have an easy time entering a coalition with an indicted Bibi - and even more difficult if Bibi does end up depending on Otzma. Things get even harder if Gantz indeed does come first in the election. In this scenario I don't think it's completely unrealistic that Kulanu would go with Gantz. But negotiations would be tough and the ideological range from Kulanu to Hadash remains bigger than the range from Kulanu to Otzma, rendering any such coalition very unstable. And of course the prospect of such a coalition being even remotely realistic drives up turnout on the right.

As for Lieberman - the guy is on the right and had no problem being part of several governments with Likud and the Haredim. I have no idea why this time would be different. And his base would never forgive him for entering a coalition with Meretz.

But Bibi may not even need either Lieberman or Kahlon. Gantz needs at least one of them, and probably Gesher too. So sure, it's not impossible for Gantz. But at this point I'd undoubtedly put my money on Bibi.

[DavidB.]

Gantz/Yesh Atid is not trying to form a left-wing coalition. They are trying to get more seats than Likud and force them into a grand coalition.

Can't exclude this possibility, it's true, but the party seems crammed with center-left people and in a grand coalition with Likud not much would change in terms of policy (unless Likud decide to set their relationship with the Haredim on fire). I see no reason why Likud would do this, even if they don't top the poll.

[Famous Mortimer]

Gantz/Yesh Atid is not trying to form a left-wing coalition. They are trying to get more seats than Likud and force them into a grand coalition.

Can't exclude this possibility, it's true, but the party seems crammed with center-left people and in a grand coalition with Likud not much would change in terms of policy (unless Likud decide to set their relationship with the Haredim on fire). I see no reason why Likud would do this, even if they don't top the poll.

It would be a coalition of conservative and liberal Zionists that would push Labor and Meretz in the direction of the One State Solution they have always been headed.

[DavidB.]

Gantz/Lapid party to be named Blue and White. 13 spots on the top-30 go to YA, 12 to Israel Resilience, 4 to Ya'alon's Telem party and 1 to Gabi Ashkenazi.

1.    Benny Gantz
2.    Yair Lapid
3.    Moshe Bogie Ya'alon
4.    Gabi Ashkenazi
5.    Avi Nissenkorn
6.    Meir Cohen
7.    Miki Haimovich
8.    Ofer Shelah
9.    Yoaz Hendel
10.  Orna Barbivai
11.   Michael Biton
12.   Chili Tropper
13.   Yael German
14.   Zvi Hauser
15.   Orit Farkash-Hacohen
16.   Karin Elharrar
17.   Meriav Cohen
18.   Yoel Razvozov
19.   Asaf Zamir
20.   Izhar Shay
21.   Elazar Stern
22.   Mickey Levy
23.   Omer Yankelevich
24.   Pnina Tamano Shata
25.   Gadeer Mreeh
26.    Ram Ben Barak
27.    Alon Shuster
28.    Yoav Segalovitz
29.    Ram Shefa
30.   Boaz Toporovsky

Ta'al and Hadash are merging - so Hadash also leaves the Joint List.

[Walmart_shopper]

Ta'al and Hadash are merging - so Hadash also leaves the Joint List.

Balad is the most politically toxic part of the Joint List, and probably the least likely to back a Gantz government. I wouldn't at all be surprised if this is positioning them to back Gantz for PM. I think the last time an Arab party actually supported a government was Rabin.

[DavidB.]

Ta'al and Hadash are merging - so Hadash also leaves the Joint List.

Balad is the most politically toxic part of the Joint List, and probably the least likely to back a Gantz government. I wouldn't at all be surprised if this is positioning them to back Gantz for PM. I think the last time an Arab party actually supported a government was Rabin.

Yes, that was the last time.

Balad is undoubtedly the most toxic one, but Ta'al's Tibi may actually be the (former) Joint List MK who's viewed most negatively by the Israeli Jewish public, together with Zoabi. Netanyahu is certainly going to play the Tibi card once Gantz or Lapid starts talking about Otzma.

I wonder if Avoda and Meretz are going to merge too. Doesn't seem like a smart idea to me. Meretz has a base that's sufficiently big and unenthusiastic about general Gantz and neoliberal Lapid that they will most likely reach the threshold. It is Avoda that should worry more about a huge exodus to Blue and White, but they would still presumably end up above the threshold. But by merging they completely destroy any threshold-related incentive to vote for them over Blue and White: they may well end up with fewer seats because of the alliance. So if they do it, Avoda would really have to be quite desperate.

[Hnv1]

Tibi did make it an issue that Arab parties should be move involved in government here. We can see some confidence and supply with Ganz to see him hit 61.

[Oryxslayer]

Gantz/Yesh Atid is not trying to form a left-wing coalition. They are trying to get more seats than Likud and force them into a grand coalition.

Can't exclude this possibility, it's true, but the party seems crammed with center-left people and in a grand coalition with Likud not much would change in terms of policy (unless Likud decide to set their relationship with the Haredim on fire). I see no reason why Likud would do this, even if they don't top the poll.

Well, I mean look at your countries 2013 election. The VVD and PvdA sold the election as a two horse race, and then formed a Grand Coalition post-election since the math was favorable. Never discount the desire for power, especially if Bibi has resigned party leadership following this hypothetical defeat.

[America Needs R'hllor]

1. Netanyahu pushed hard and sold his soul to get the Kahanists into the Knesset. He made it his goal. He legitimized them to save himself. Deri said he's closer to these nazis than to Lapid. The JH threw out the only major figure in their list that opposed the union with the nazis. So yeah, the Israeli right needed them, but it comes with a price. If the right wants to support a union with the Kahanists, the right is now tainted by Kahanism. Period.
2. Definitely a major event amongst the Arabs- the soft communists of Hadash and the pro-Arab interests Ta'al is the most agreeable of the bunch, while Balad (nationalist Palestinians known to legitimize terror) and Ra'am (Islamist conservatives who could never support leftist causes) united to make their own trash party. Considering the Hadash-Ra'am-Balad list was polling at 5, we'll see if the latter can even pass the threshold.
3. A Meretz-Labour union is an interesting proposition for sure. I'm torn about whether it's good or bad for us- on the one hand, I believe Labour is a great standard bearer for the center left that must be preserved, and such a union could hurt these prospects. Also, what DavidB said could certainly happen- the united party could be smaller than its parts. On the other hand, whoever still supports Labour probably believes in the party's values and wants them represented in the next Knesset, and we saw that after the party showed signs of life in the primary it surged in the polls. So a strong leftist party polling in the mid to high teens could actually harness that enthusiasm to increase the left's strength.
4. Walmart_shopper- welcome to the forum! Great to see more Israelis here.

[DavidB.]

Rumor has it that Kahlon and Netanyahu are negotiating to team up on a joint slate. Removes the risk of Kahlon going to Gantz after the election, but I wonder what Kulanu's remaining voters will do: how many of them are also willing to vote for Likud/Bibi and how many will defect to the Gantz bloc?

It would mean that Kahlon is playing it safe: he may miss out on the threshold and actually lose voters to Gantz and Likud if he doesn't team up with Likud. On the other hand, he could be kingmaker if he does get in separately. But I've long expected him to rejoin Likud.

1. Netanyahu pushed hard and sold his soul to get the Kahanists into the Knesset. He made it his goal. He legitimized them to save himself. Deri said he's closer to these nazis than to Lapid. The JH threw out the only major figure in their list that opposed the union with the nazis. So yeah, the Israeli right needed them, but it comes with a price. If the right wants to support a union with the Kahanists, the right is now tainted by Kahanism. Period.

Tainted by Kahanism, sure, that's a phrase I'm willing to accept. But Kahanist government, referring to a government without any Otzma presence - no. Unless you're also willing to accept the term Palestinian terror government for any government supported from the outside by Ahmad Tibi. Gantz's "pay for slay" government, perhaps. All the Israeli rags are full of such loaded language and a lot of respected journalists are currently losing it, but I'd actually prefer for us on this forum to keep it a bit more neutral. It takes me some effort too, I have very strong opinions of what's happening too, but I think it makes the discussions more analytical and less heated.

[DavidB.]

Labour and Meretz not running on a joint slate: Gabbay said no.

Odeh will be #1 on the Hadash-Ta'al list, but Tibi will head the parliamentary group.

[DC Al Fine]

What are the two Arab tickets calling themselves?

[DavidB.]

Party named "Bible Bloc" for Arab and Russian Christians just handed in its list.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Rumor has it that Kahlon and Netanyahu are negotiating to team up on a joint slate. Removes the risk of Kahlon going to Gantz after the election, but I wonder what Kulanu's remaining voters will do: how many of them are also willing to vote for Likud/Bibi and how many will defect to the Gantz bloc?

It would mean that Kahlon is playing it safe: he may miss out on the threshold and actually lose voters to Gantz and Likud if he doesn't team up with Likud. On the other hand, he could be kingmaker if he does get in separately. But I've long expected him to rejoin Likud.

1. Netanyahu pushed hard and sold his soul to get the Kahanists into the Knesset. He made it his goal. He legitimized them to save himself. Deri said he's closer to these nazis than to Lapid. The JH threw out the only major figure in their list that opposed the union with the nazis. So yeah, the Israeli right needed them, but it comes with a price. If the right wants to support a union with the Kahanists, the right is now tainted by Kahanism. Period.

Tainted by Kahanism, sure, that's a phrase I'm willing to accept. But Kahanist government, referring to a government without any Otzma presence - no. Unless you're also willing to accept the term Palestinian terror government for any government supported from the outside by Ahmad Tibi. Gantz's "pay for slay" government, perhaps. All the Israeli rags are full of such loaded language and a lot of respected journalists are currently losing it, but I'd actually prefer for us on this forum to keep it a bit more neutral. It takes me some effort too, I have very strong opinions of what's happening too, but I think it makes the discussions more analytical and less heated.

I just feel very passionate about the Kahanists- it's basically the complete enemy of everything I believe, treasure, value and respect. With Bibi and much of the right embracing them and legitimising them, I have this horrible feeling that my country is going completely off the rails and that what's happening is a destruction of the zionist dream and the memory of the holocaust.

As for the semantics- yeah, calling it a Kahanist government is unfair but it'll definitely be a government that legitimizes Kahanism (which I view as very close to nazism so it's horrid by itself). I also believe that they're worse than Tibi (he never legitimized terror like they did- Ben Gvir called mass murderer Baruch Goldstein tsadik and refused to take down his picture in his home). Gantz actually earned points with me when he made the accurate comparison- Balad and Otzma. Both support terror, both are violent. To me, Otzma is even worse because they're my people (and are also much more racist etc).

Also, Kahlon won't run with Bibi officially now.

[DC Al Fine]

Party named "Bible Bloc" for Arab and Russian Christians just handed in its list.

Finally a fringe party I can get behind.

I assume these guys aren't going anywhere?

[_]

So there's about 3 and a half hours left before Lists have to be in right?  I assume there are no major moves left by anyone?

[DavidB.]

Party named "Bible Bloc" for Arab and Russian Christians just handed in its list.

Finally a fringe party I can get behind.

I assume these guys aren't going anywhere?

You never know, but it seems very unlikely that they get in.

[danny]

Finally a fringe party I can get behind.

I assume these guys aren't going anywhere?

Very much so, I imagine that they will end with a result in the triple digit number of votes, and getting in will require around 140K.

[danny]

So there's about 3 and a half hours left before Lists have to be in right?  I assume there are no major moves left by anyone?

We seem to be done in terms of lists, now it's just a formality.