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🦀

https://twitter.com/MarwanData/status/1795186272954196368

I’m assuming the MRP would have the Lib Dems and Tories close, but with what approximate number? 50 would seem too low for the Tories, while 100 each seems too high. Granted, if it’s getting close to a Canada 1993 style wipeout, 50 could be about right.

Once the Conservatives drop bellow 20% in vote share, they pretty much evaporate in terms of seats.

Are the models that have the Lib Dems gaining a bunch of seats while getting less than their vote share in 2019 robust? It feels like these models were built primarily using data from a string of Conservative victories and they get warped once the Conservatives fall below a certain point.

Red avatars are always nervous. If Biden were up by 10 points I would also be nervous.

This is going to be a close election and people who are younger than we are, Lief, have only really seen elections where Dems have giant leads for much of the campaign. I think this race will be a race like 2000 and 2004 where it's basically up in the air right until the end and could easily go either way at any point. I do think a lot of the blue avatars here are massively overconfident but they always are.

But guys, remember, Gretchen Whitmer/Andy Beshear wouldn't have fared much better than Biden against Trump! /S

This is kind of a pointless talking point, because there was never going to be a swapping of Biden for some random governor who never ran, or any possibility of replacing him with anyone besides Harris. Now if you want to argue Harris would be a better candidate that's one thing, but any other scenario was never feasible.

Honestly, wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins by larger than 2020 here, though likely would be somewhere between the 2016 and 2020 margins,   Trump has more core support, but also more disdain, neither one is popular by any stretch of the imagination

Siena found Trump +4 in Nassau in their Long Island poll.

Bernie.

Why do you have a red avatar again?

Democrat is when you prefer a MAGA governor to a senator who supports universal healthcare.

Not to mention that Welch and Balint have more or less identical views to Sanders on policy, albeit perhaps not on philosophy.

There's more:
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1795478013594735043

Well, no, I think they would have most likely just retired the line LOL

In the real world, Trump did not invade Iran. You're imagining a fictional scenario in order to presume his supporters are hypocrites. Not too smart!

Looking good Mr. Prime Minister

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1795485183073775620

https://twitter.com/MaddowBlog/status/1795469691751711074