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Of course, though it definitely reduces the likelihood.

It's giving recession vibes!

Yes, and I am glad you seem happy about it. This job market is f**king terrible.

I would be careful about reading overmuch into any single poll and so on, though we can note that it's significant that figures like that can be produced.

Yeah, It's unclear if Labour really are opening up a clear lead (and a poll with the Greens on 7% and Reform 4% in Scotland is probably not going to happen in reality), but the fact it’s not just another poll bouncing around the MOE of even stevens is indicative of the slow trend towards Labour is continuing.

Perhaps an even more telling- even saddening - demonstration of how popular butker's views are. His T-shirt is now the highest selling one in the NFL store.

I think part of that is that sports in general is turning into a clique for reactionary bearded men. Even real sports like football seem to be turning into MMA or NASCAR in terms of the type of fandom it attracts.

It doesn't help that football is horribly boring to watch now because of the penalties and commercial breaks. You'd have to be pretty weird to enjoy watching two hours of commercial breaks and another hour of watching people stand around waiting for the official review of every other play.


I also forgot to mention it's extremely expensive. You'd have to be a total asshole to waste money going to a game in person at this point, and you have to have cable or premium streaming services to watch everything. It's a mess.

This is false lol . The NFL just recorded its 2nd highest average ratings ever last season so it’s just as popular as it ever was . The fact is conservatives, liberals have both attacked the nfl constantly but in reality it has done nothing to dent the NFL’s popularity .

Also it’s false to say you need cable to watch the NFL as at least 90% of NFL games are broadcast on CBS NBC or Fox all of which you only need an antenna to watch .

https://fortune.com/2024/01/10/nfl-ratings-tv-second-highest-ever-football/

The ratings may not be declining, but the types of people watching it have definitely changed. Fewer and fewer young people care about sports and, regardless of what the ratings say, a lot of people who used to watch football regularly have given up on it. Not for political reasons, but because the experience is terrible. Nonstop commercials, nonstop penalties, nonstop official reviews, and it is less accessible than it used to be. "You only need an antenna to watch." Lol.

The Superbowl had the highest viewership of anything since the Moon Landing, you don’t get those numbers without universal appeal.

Leaving aside the questionable legal, constitutional and ethical basis of such a move, the only way Trump would accept a deal like that would be if he was down 10+ points.  With see-saw election polls, it would be a simple "why take crumbs when I could have a whole loaf".  And realistically, even if Trump loses but comes close, there is a good chance for Biden to pardon him, after the election, on his own volition.  So, no it won't happen.

Azerbaijan is really making an effort to outdo its genocidal ally in the ankle-biter rankings. It's like North Korea supporting AREMA except ten times as stupid.

Perhaps an even more telling- even saddening - demonstration of how popular butker's views are. His T-shirt is now the highest selling one in the NFL store.

I think part of that is that sports in general is turning into a clique for reactionary bearded men. Even real sports like football seem to be turning into MMA or NASCAR in terms of the type of fandom it attracts.

It doesn't help that football is horribly boring to watch now because of the penalties and commercial breaks. You'd have to be pretty weird to enjoy watching two hours of commercial breaks and another hour of watching people stand around waiting for the official review of every other play.


I also forgot to mention it's extremely expensive. You'd have to be a total asshole to waste money going to a game in person at this point, and you have to have cable or premium streaming services to watch everything. It's a mess.

This is false lol . The NFL just recorded its 2nd highest average ratings ever last season so it’s just as popular as it ever was . The fact is conservatives, liberals have both attacked the nfl constantly but in reality it has done nothing to dent the NFL’s popularity .

Also it’s false to say you need cable to watch the NFL as at least 90% of NFL games are broadcast on CBS NBC or Fox all of which you only need an antenna to watch .

https://fortune.com/2024/01/10/nfl-ratings-tv-second-highest-ever-football/

The ratings may not be declining, but the types of people watching it have definitely changed. Fewer and fewer young people care about sports and, regardless of what the ratings say, a lot of people who used to watch football regularly have given up on it. Not for political reasons, but because the experience is terrible. Nonstop commercials, nonstop penalties, nonstop official reviews, and it is less accessible than it used to be. "You only need an antenna to watch." Lol.

Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

If that's true, i don't believe for a second Trump will only by 9 points.

He gets as much as DeSantis.

And the whole bottomline so far is Trump also making inroads with AA voters.

Rubio won only 55% of Hispanics. And Trump here would take 58% and we aren't even talking about people who say they would favour an independent over Biden (or are undecided atm).

Trump winning 58% of Hispanics basically suggests a +15 win at least, possibly +20. Unless other demographics groups dramatically shift in favour of Biden, which might relative to the 2022 elections be true. But given Biden is struggling with urban demographics, such as Afro American voters, young voters. And given the panhandle also rural AA's, than Florida might actually back Trump stronger than thought on election day.

Which ironically would be a continuation of the trend set in 2016 and 2020 (and also 2018 + 2022).

With numbers like that, Palm Beach County would be in play.

It’s possible but it’s been a while since polling underestimated Dems in a significant manner in a presidential year. The only real examples are midterms such as 06, and 22.

Also, in what world were 2010 and 2014 not red waves?
Dems lost 63 house seats and I think 7 senate seats in 2010 and like 7-8 senate seats in 2014 while the GOP was winning like 247 house seats
If that’s not a wave, idk what is.

PolitiCalc Results:

Based on your results, we project that your voting tendencies are right-wing.

Your nearest ideological personas are Classical Liberal (27%), Nationalist (26%), Conservative (26%)

Your most dominant attributes are: Communitarian (81%), Conservative (78%), Globalist (75%)

67% Privatist
72% Meritocratic
78% Conservative
81% Communitarian
61% Suspecting
50% Emotional
58% Pragmatist
61% Loyalist
75% Globalist
56% Hawk
58% Gradual
58% Conformist

So according to this poll, I'm basically a Christian Democrat who ended up being born in Canada somehow lol. Idk if I agree with some of those metrics (I really don't think I'm that conservative or communitarian), but most of them make sense.