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Ipsos appears to be the new "it" pollster lol. This is Ipsos by itself, so we now have Reuters/Ipsos, ABC/Ipsos, NYT/Ipsos and just Ipsos.

Which is funny because Ipsos is french. I guess they are good at polling?

It is interesting (although unsurprising) that people with a foreign background are slightly more pro-independence than people from the rest of Spain. What I find really peculiar, even if probably driven by small sample sizes, is the other chart that says among people with a foreign background support for independence decreases with income, contrary to the trend in all other background categories where richer people are more supportive of independence.

One of the big Nationalist conspiracy/narrative that is spoken only in the lightest of dog whistles is that Spain encourages rich Latin Americans to invest, study and/or live in Barcelona (with the passport that comes quicker than other demographics remember) to eventually Hispanicize the region as a whole.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/us/justice-alito-upside-down-flag.html?smid=tw-share

After the 2020 presidential election, as some Trump supporters falsely claimed that President Biden had stolen the office, many of them displayed a startling symbol outside their homes, on their cars and in online posts: an upside-down American flag.

One of the homes flying an inverted flag during that time was the residence of Supreme Court Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., in Alexandria, Va., according to photographs and interviews with neighbors.

The upside-down flag was aloft on Jan. 17, 2021, the images showed. President Donald J. Trump’s supporters, including some brandishing the same symbol, had rioted at the Capitol a little over a week before. Mr. Biden’s inauguration was three days away. Alarmed neighbors snapped photographs, some of which were recently obtained by The New York Times. Word of the flag filtered back to the court, people who worked there said in interviews.

What do you mean "again?" Trump has always had the electoral college advantage across all three of his elections.

I mean the size of the advantage increases in his favor again.

I'm genuinely curious how Atlas skews in terms of age. I myself for purposes of transparency am in my early 30s, I fit within the 30-35 age bracket.

If you are above 45 and feel like specifying your age further, cool. If not, I understand your desire for privacy.

My answer to this question is I put Hot Sauce and chilli P on literally everything. I literally had baked ziti for dinner and spiced it up with some Cholula, cumin, and chili powder. Yes, I love spicy food.

Mostly yes.

I listen to some new stuff but I mainly listen to the same crap I always have.

See above.

You sell the message of jobs and inflation and being left behind in rural / white Wisconsin.

You go to urban Wisconsin and sell Democrats are taking you for granted.

You go to the Muslim areas of Wisconsin and make a play for being the peace candidate, as opposed to "GENOCIDE JOE."

PA and NC, hit the nuts and bolts issues - jobs. Inflation. Food prices. Gas prices. Rents. Joe may be the union President but what is your union doing for you? AI is taking away jobs, and is gonna take away more jobs - what's Biden doing about it? Nothing.

Florida, shore up the Cuban vote. Shore up the Biden is abandoning you message. Shore up the message of Biden wants to replace you at your jobs with undocumented workers. Hit central and north and rural Florida. Hit them with your family is struggling while undocumented migrants are getting their rents paid for. I'm gonna bring us back to the glory days of 2017-2019. I'm gonna lower your taxes. I'm gonna build a new economy that provides you and your family jobs and lower prices.

Trump has a genuine path to around 271-279 EV's. The ads, the speeches practically write themselves. You portray Joe as asleep at the wheel - America is a drifting ship at sea with no captain while working class Americans and middle class Americans are suffering. Paint Joe both as not only out of touch but also the modern day Marie Antoinette - not only is he out of touch, he doesn't care.

Trump could actually make a coalition of disenchanted young left, unemployed college voters, white and ethnic working class, and even grab some Latinos and Black communities that haven't done well in the past 4 years. It would be a flimsy coalition ofc but enough to carry him over 270. Grab the working class whites in the rural areas and suburbs and the working class non-whites in urban areas.

Like Christ, how is this strategy not self-evident to Trump's people? I feel this is their election to lose and a lot of these takes, in terms of strategy, seem self evident, but I don't see them pursuing it.

What percent of Romney-Clinton/Biden voters does Hogan end up getting?

About two thirds I'd assume. They are ground zero of his crossover appeal.

It's not 2014 anymore though. And these are the types of voters who would recognize what an extra Republican number in the Senate means.

I mean, what share of Biden voters do you think Hogan will get? I personally think it will be between 15% (on a bad night) and 25% (on a great night). And voters who were republicans not so long ago are probably going to be voting for Hogan at far higher rates than the average Biden voter.

Oh by the way: Hogan backs codifying Roe v. Wade, calls himself ‘pro-choice’.
He's really trying to get that democratic crossover vote.