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Try to win back some Cleveland area suburbs and NW Ohio. In other words, try to keep in the long term those two swingy CDs.

Look at the rural counties where Obama at least performed well against Romney in 2012 even if he lost. Places like scioto, ross, pike, other appalachian, etc. We don't need to flip those counties blue, but we can't lose them by a three to one or even two to one margin either when Obama lost these places by single digits

This is a very underlooked point. People like to blame historically Dem areas like the Cleveland exurbs and Youngstown, but the map speaks for itself.

Today the citizens of Dominican Republic went to the polls for second time in the year (Local elections were in February 18th), almost 8 million of registered voters in the country and abroad were called to vote, polls have already been closed, incumbent President Luís Abinader of the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM, socialdemocrat de jure, conservative de facto) is the favorite to secure reelection, their main rivals are Abel Martínez, former mayor of Santiago de los Caballeros for the centre-left Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) and the always-running former President Leonel Fernández with his People's Force party (FP) who splt off from the PLD back in 2019.

In the 2020, Abinader took office winning the election with 52.5% of the votes, the then-rulling party PLD candidate Gonzalo Castillo finished 2nd with 37.5% and Fernández ended 3rd with 8.9%. Within the "historical parties", christian democrat PRSC endorsded then Fernández and currently supports Abinader while the catch-all PRD who endorsed in 2016 and 2020 their former rival PLD is now running alone with their current leader Miguel Vargas and likely very far to the Top 3 (thus becoming irrelevant).

Dominican electoral system from Wikipedia:

The President of the Dominican Republic is elected using the two-round system; if no candidate receives 50% + 1 vote, or more, of the total votes, a second-round runoff will be held between the two candidates with the highest votes on the first round.

The 32 members of the Senate are elected from the 31 provinces and the Distrito Nacional using first-past-the-post voting.

The 190 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected in three groups; 178 are elected by proportional representation from 32 multi-member constituencies based on the 31 provinces and the Distrito Nacional, with the number of seats based on the population of each province. A further seven members are elected by proportional representation by Dominican expatriates in three overseas constituencies, and five seats are allocated at the national level to parties that received at least 1% of the vote nationally, giving preference to those that did not win any of the 178 constituency seats.

The 20 seats in the Central American Parliament are elected by proportional representation.

One of the main issues of the campaign is the crisis in their fallen-state neighbors of Haiti and the increased migration who comes from there. Abinader during this term did a very Trump-solution like build a wall along the border (not sure if whatever is in charge in Haiti will "pay for it") and pledged during debates to finish their construction and continue deporting illegal inmigrants, Martínez and Fernández also supports a harsh stance on Haitian migration.

Just In: First bulletin with 38% of the precincts processed, Abinader (PRM) without any surprise wins reelection for another 4-year term with 59.2% of the votes, Fernández (FP) is currently 2nd with 26.9% and PLD' Martínez just have 10.6%

Source: https://listindiario.com/elecciones-generales-2024/20240519/luis-abinader-queda-ganar-elecciones-presidenciales-votos_809033.html

I'm an atheist because all religions are cults

I feel like you think this was an intelligent or insightful take.  Unfortunately, it’s pretty low hanging fruit spam of the neck beard variety.

Seriously. There should be an unofficial rule against crappy one-liners on this board.

The only people "set off" by this were deranged Trumpist idiots who spew dumb, sh*tty disinfo like faked gay relationships instead of ever saying anything meaningful. DePape & Paul had no relationship & the "something" that "set him off" was being a far-right conspiracy theorist, which he admitted to at his trial when he testified in his own defense with his words.

"Idan went to bully the Palestinian students in the tents at UCLA and played the song that they played to the Nukhba terrorists in prison!" - Sharon On-Siboni (Idan Oh's mother)

Idan's mother and father proudly support Israel and defended their son actions at UCLA, saying that he is heading to UCLA to join the IDF.

https://twitter.com/mouradanas2007/status/1791379679246750147

I am surprised they let you back on here. This board was much better the past few months without your useless commentary on Israel. Reading a lot of your posts just shows the way a lot of younger, leftists have been poisoned by propaganda in a conflict with quite a few ambiguities.

Let me tell you that it's hard to come back because this place has turned into a Zionist echo chamber, but I had to do it because everyone else willing to speak up for the Palestinians has been silenced.

Not to justify Milei's erratic and often childish behavior, but if Sánchez's own ministers are going to be the ones hurling insults at him first... can the Spanish government really claim a moral high ground here? I'm not that convinced myself.

sanchez did endorsed against him in the run off

We’re in a weird place right now where the national polls are looking better for Biden but the swing state polls are still looking pretty bad for him. However this looks to be the same polling outfit that showed close races in the rust belt trio.

I’m not skilled enough to offer a thorough explanation for this, but I still feel better about Biden’s chances compared to a few months ago.

It's not that hard to explain.

Democrats in 2016 and 2020 had a PV advantage. Clinton won the PV with 3% while losing the EV. So it would make sense that a narrow EV win for Trump would likely have a Biden PV win.

Especially since a lot of states keep trending D like TX long run and aren't going to return to Bush margins.

I don't know why people suddenly buy that the PV / EV discrepancy would suddenly disappear unless you really believe states like California will suddenly shift 15% to the right or something.

Secondly... it's not like Biden suddenly is ahead of Trump. Trump has a 0.9% lead on RCP vs Biden. If Trump really wins the PV by that margin, i don't even think the race would even be that close... as some think it'll be now. Basically puts MN and VA really into play, not that it really would matter though in the grand scale of things since all Trump needs is 270 electoral votes, not a PV win or MN or VA voting for him.

The only poll, which was a Democratic internal, had Trump up 3.

Yes, but coalition looks different. Trump would do better in DeKalb/Fulton/Clayton and outside Atlanta metro, but worse in places like Cobb/Gwinnett.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1792340425510211763

Edit: Yeah they're dead.

https://twitter.com/anadoluagency/status/1792348729858768951