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I would’ve said no until Jon Ralston said that all of the D house incumbents were in trouble. He doesn’t usually raise the alarm for no reason and clearly thinks that Dems are losing ground in NV, and it was already a close state to begin with.

As of now this is probably a pure tossup (I.e. that Rs win one of these districts).

This. Tbh Democrats might have screwed themselves over by spreading their votes so thin...it's a house of cards...one big red wave and a 4-0 R House delegation is hardly impossible (maybe not this year, but then in 2026 if Biden pulls off a win).

Sort of gives me vibes of IA map last decade. IA map last decade wasn't a gerrymander (it was court drawn iirc) but Obama won 3/4 congressional districts but all flipped to Trump in 2016 and Dems struggled to hold them throughout the decade.

It's a fair sentence.  There needs to be deterrence for people who invade the homes of public officials and batter them, or their families.

*Possible* yes, but I would still place my bets on a Biden shift.

While it is fair that the CA/NY/FL theory leaves out Texas, CA+NY+FL by itself is still pretty significant and perhaps you could even add Illinois and New Jersey to that group.

I think the main way in which the divide grows is if educational polarization is basically the only driver of swings. This is because basically all the most educated states are safe/likely Biden at this point. By college educated % the most educated state that's not federally likely/safe blue are Utah and Pennsylvania at spots #14 and #15 respectively. The other main swing states are average or below average on educational attainment.

If Illinois shifts right due to Chicago wouldn't the same apply to Milwuakee and Detroit? Ditto with NJ and PA.

Doubtful. If they couldn't win them in 2022, I doubt it this year.

But the national environment has greatly worsened for Democrats since the 2022 midterms.

It's worsened for Biden. Not necessarily the Democrats. The generic ballot polls as of now are usually tied or giving Democrats a slight edge. 2022 House popular vote was R+2.

Not only that, but there's hindsight from the 2022 midterms in Nevada.

Yeah - if Biden really does collapse enough to lose any of the Vegas seats, then I think the Dem incumbents outrun him a couple % because downballot realignment always tends to lag and polls generally suggests Congressional Dems outrunning Biden overall. So even if Biden loses NV-04 by 1% I still think Horsford would be favored to hold on - if Biden is losing NV-04 by like 5% then Horsford would be in trouble and Biden would be losing statewide in Nevada by close to double-digits. I just am not seeing that type of Dem collapse in the Vegas area right now.

LDP will not be running a candidate in Tokyo Gov election. Koike should easily cruise to a third term.

Smart decision.

They endorsed her last time, too.

*Possible* yes, but I would still place my bets on a Biden shift.

While it is fair that the CA/NY/FL theory leaves out Texas, CA+NY+FL by itself is still pretty significant and perhaps you could even add Illinois and New Jersey to that group.

I think the main way in which the divide grows is if educational polarization is basically the only driver of swings. This is because basically all the most educated states are safe/likely Biden at this point. By college educated % the most educated state that's not federally likely/safe blue are Utah and Pennsylvania at spots #14 and #15 respectively. The other main swing states are average or below average on educational attainment.

Reapportionment method: 1 seat given to each state by default. 385 assigned by population using a single divisor, with fractions being round down.
All districts within states will seek to have roughly equal numbers of Biden voters relative to other districts in the same state.

You should use the actual method used by the US House to be honest, I could do the calculations for you if you're interested.

LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph (changes since February):

SF 29 (-2)
DUP 21 (-3)
All 15 (+1)
UUP 11 (+1)
SDLP 8 (+1)
TUV 8 (+2)
Oth 4 (-)
Aontú 2 (-)
GP 1 (-)
SWP 1 (-)

Yeah we are you don't see Redban anywhere, he's a hack

I did (as someone who has turned into a semi-compulsive reader of Ballotpedia's "Population represented by state legislators" page in recent months). I just didn't think it was newsworthy.