Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[THG]

Joe Biden's approval is now worse than Obama's was at the time of the 2010 elections:





To put things in perspective: Trump's approval at the time of the 2018 elections was roughly -9. He polled 6 points below his national polling numbers in 2016, and Republicans did about 6 points worse in the national congressional vote than Trump did for President. Biden is now polling about 12(!) points worse in approval vs his national polling numbers in 2020. That would suggest an upper single-digit Republican romp nationally in 2022 if it stays.

It's worth pointing out that it's possible that this is Biden's low point. Trump had an awful first year of approval and, against historical precedent, trended upwards in approval as time went on. But that's not typical, and so far Biden's presidency is following a more traditional approval trend (downward as time goes on). Democrats' hope to hang on to power relies on him bouncing back significantly and this being a unique blip.

I think Biden’s floor is high 30’s/low 40’s. He reminds me of an even less popular and less charismatic second term Obama.

[Matty]

Some good news for Biden

Despite losing support in most polls, he maintains good ratings among whites with a degree

That matters in 2022, because there are barely any swing seats with WWC voters. The swing seats are nearly all in districts that are suburban and educated.

What could happen in 2022 is that Dems do dreadful on cow country- aka they underperform even their 2016 margins- but they maintain their majority because the suburbs don’t budge

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't know how many times I have to repeat myself Biden isn't losing MI, PA, WI, AZ, CO, NV no matter how low polls go for him, Trump won on the back of BENGHAZI HILLARY and Johnson did too, Biden won 50/45 and next yr it's gonna be 50*9/45 with 500 days til the Election, the Rs need to take a chill pill

Hobbs, Laura Kelly, Beshear, Downing, Bill Walker and Rashurn Baker will win, while D's lose PA and NC TL Cooper and JBE and no UT isn't a blue state, Romney will easily win it on 2024.  It's the Nate SILVER BLUE WALL, IT WAS 304 IN 2016/2018/2020, D's won so many red districts in 2018 due to Retirements but the Gov races they won 306 blue walk

Warnock is vulnerable, he campaigned on 2K checks and so did Ossoff and To Khanna and there aren't anymore of those

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Where are Roxas and pp politics that had Biden at 60% Approvals RV when we had 750K jobs come out, they were just Temporary Factory jobs, you can't even get thru SSA, so many people are applying for SSA, and it has to be yrs since you last worked 3 yrs at least  unless you are pernamently disabled and SHELTERS are closed, you can't even get into Salvation Army, donations have Covid on the clothes, we were in a TB Pandemic before Covid

As said before, Biden is showing that he isn't a Progressive but a blue dog by not handing out more Stimulus checks, that's why Warren and Bernie ran against him due to voting for 2005 Bankruptcy Reform bill

Food from Pantry has Covid on it too, but people ignore it

[Progressive Pessimist]

The nightmarish circumstances in this country are proving too much for Biden's administration to deal with, but the Afghanistan withdrawal likely caused his honeymoon phase to accelerate in declining.

With how Americans seem to be blaming him for everything, I'm not even sure that signing the infrastructure bill can even help him now.

I guess the only solace we can take is that as unpopular as he is, and may remain, he still most likely won't be polling as badly as Trump did on average...hopefully. Of course, Trump had his own cult and a bevy of confounding soft soft supporters to make up for that.

I just want to fast forward to a time where a deluge of bad news isn't happening...please...

[GeneralMacArthur]

The nightmarish circumstances in this country are proving too much for Biden's administration to deal with, but the Afghanistan withdrawal likely caused his honeymoon phase to accelerate in declining.

With how Americans seem to be blaming him for everything, I'm not even sure that signing the infrastructure bill can even help him now.

I guess the only solace we can take is that as unpopular as he is, and may remain, he still most likely won't be polling as badly as Trump did on average...hopefully. Of course, Trump had his own cult and a bevy of confounding soft soft supporters to make up for that.

I just want to fast forward to a time where a deluge of bad news isn't happening...please...

The most frustrating part is that Americans seem to be blaming him for the Delta surge, which is caused by anti-vaxxers, even though he's taken strong actions to urge people to get the vaccine while his political opponents have openly embraced the anti-vaxx movement.

Simultaneously, Americans have made it clear that they would oppose a nationwide vaccine mandate, which is also the only action he could take to fix the Delta surge at this point.  So what do they want him to do?  Just magical thinking.  Biden should make Delta go away without making everyone get the vaccine.

[BigSerg]

America hates Sleepy Joe!

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1433927146045587457?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1433927948554354691?s=20

[MR DARK BRANDON]

America hates Sleepy Joe!

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1433927146045587457?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1433927948554354691?s=20

You literally posted the two outliers lol

[Progressive Pessimist]

The nightmarish circumstances in this country are proving too much for Biden's administration to deal with, but the Afghanistan withdrawal likely caused his honeymoon phase to accelerate in declining.

With how Americans seem to be blaming him for everything, I'm not even sure that signing the infrastructure bill can even help him now.

I guess the only solace we can take is that as unpopular as he is, and may remain, he still most likely won't be polling as badly as Trump did on average...hopefully. Of course, Trump had his own cult and a bevy of confounding soft soft supporters to make up for that.

I just want to fast forward to a time where a deluge of bad news isn't happening...please...

The most frustrating part is that Americans seem to be blaming him for the Delta surge, which is caused by anti-vaxxers, even though he's taken strong actions to urge people to get the vaccine while his political opponents have openly embraced the anti-vaxx movement.

Simultaneously, Americans have made it clear that they would oppose a nationwide vaccine mandate, which is also the only action he could take to fix the Delta surge at this point.  So what do they want him to do?  Just magical thinking.  Biden should make Delta go away without making everyone get the vaccine.

It's another lose-lose situation like the Afghanistan withdrawal.

I think that is how Americans think though. They want Biden to simply wave a magic wand and make things better. It was the same thing with Obama. Americans quickly became disenchanted because they didn't understand what the President's actual powers are or how he works with state governments and other branches. They will never learn and the country will continue suffering for it.

[BigSerg]

America hates Sleepy Joe!

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1433927146045587457?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1433927948554354691?s=20

You literally posted the two outliers lol

Ok, 4 outliers...hahaaha

Ipsos

Approve 46 (-3)
Disapprove 48 (+2)

ABC

Approve 44 (-6)
Disapprove 51 (+9)

Strongly approve 25 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+7)

[MR DARK BRANDON]

America hates Sleepy Joe!

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1433927146045587457?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1433927948554354691?s=20

You literally posted the two outliers lol

Ipsos

Approve 46 (-3)
Disapprove 48 (+2)

ABC

Approve 44 (-6)
Disapprove 51 (+9)

Strongly approve 25 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+7)

“Hate” is more like 35-40, not 46 with -2 here are some other polls you are not mentioning

Emerson; 46-47
Politico; 47-49
Legar; 48-49
MC; 48-44
GSRG; 47-50

No doubt he’s underwater but the country hardly “hates him”

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump and Bush W were disasterous, 2024 will be the Last of Bill Clinton and Biden anyways, going forward after Biden D's will have Progressive Prez.

Bush W was saved from impeachment over outing a CIA operative did to R H until 2007 after Katrina

We clearly should of elected Bernie or Warren or Booker not only did Biden not win wave insurance seats he gave up on UBI payments

Ro Khanna and WARNOCK and Ossoff were elected on UBI payments, the Yang agenda called to end them when Covid ends

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users know full well that MI, PA and WI and 304 have same party D Fed Legislature but R state legislature, we are waiting for them to Elect a D state legislature to pass the Direct Election of Prez

MT, WVa, and OH will be the only 3 states left with split party Senate delegation


Tester and Brown can sure up the Sen I'm a Prez Election but Manchin is Doug Jones


I made maps of all the Fed Legislation and States and compared them to State Legislature, KI, PA, and WI on the last holdouts for Direct Election of Prez


Hobbs, Laura Kelly, Bill Walker, Ben Downing and Rashurn Baker will win, it's over for Charlie Baker Downing is only down by 7 just like Baker was down to Coakley when Deval Patrick had 2T


Ayotte probably gets elected Gov unless Molly Kelly runs, should Sununu retire and lose against Hassan, and 8/10 pt deficit is nothing in NH and NV, Rosen and SISOLAK were down in 2018 to and came back

[pbrower2a]

Some good news for Biden

Despite losing support in most polls, he maintains good ratings among whites with a degree

That matters in 2022, because there are barely any swing seats with WWC voters. The swing seats are nearly all in districts that are suburban and educated.

What could happen in 2022 is that Dems do dreadful on cow country- aka they underperform even their 2016 margins- but they maintain their majority because the suburbs don’t budge

The white vote in "corn and cow country" is shrinking, much of it because Americans are abandoning rural areas that have few jobs and in which corporate farmers are buying out the remaining family farms. The former small farmers are moving to the suburbs, and their kids are getting college educations which transform them from thinking like conservative small farmers into degreed professionals. That's part of the deal in selling out the family farm: your kids can become accountants, engineers, veterinarians, or even physicians and attorneys.

Eventually rural America will swing D because the growing population is heavily non-white, non-Anglo farm laborers who have no obvious stake in right-wing politics. Their kids are becoming citizens, and they are starting to vote. Dairies and slaughterhouses which offer industrial-style work and social conditions operate much like the industrial sweatshops that created a labor movement that turned the working class into (largely) liberal democrats. The kids value formal education, which is not favorable to Trump-like demagogues on the Right. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was a 304 map in 2016, 2018 and  2020, Ds overperformed in the H in Red states due to Retirements of Rs on the H in 2018


This is why Ds are in so much trouble in H because it's a midterm, because D's don't have that type of Advantage anymore. The H like in 2018/ that's why TX D's will lose on Abortion and Voter Suppression because Beto, McCounghey or Julian Castro aren't running for Gov and neither is Abrams


They made that very clear when Sinema blocked VR reform, they weren't running for Gov if VR isn't passed


It's unlikely with Biden low Approvals that D's will retain the H, but not impossible, this  is Chuck Todd and Nate Silver talking, due to fact D's would have to win almost every competetive race


If D's lose the House which they will try again I'm 2026, it's unlikely Biden will be back to 59% without another Stimuluss, he is opposed to another Stimulus and VOTERS ELECTED BIDEN OVER BERNIE AND WARREN WHOM WOULD OF KEPT FIGHTING FOR MINIMUM WAGE.

RO KHANNA IS STILL FOR MORE STIMULUS PAYMENTS, but he said Biden being a blue dog, not a progressive that voted for Bankruptcy Reform bill in 2005 doesn't want it or extend Unemployment

That's why Mock Predictions wanted Bernie or Warren not Biden, we were correct, he doesn't want another Stimulus, we are Ds not rich Rs still in a Pandemic

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

https://twitter.com/QuarantinedCoof/status/1433817869494652928

https://twitter.com/QuarantinedCoof/status/1433816989965893635

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't a great Prez as we already found out but Biden was Veep under Obama that kept Pelosi whom botched the H in 2020 setting the stage up what we have now, an inevitable take over of the House and the Ds overachievers on 2018 midterms in red states due to Retirements

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/QuarantinedCoof/status/1433817869494652928

https://twitter.com/QuarantinedCoof/status/1433816989965893635

Weird comparisons. The political climate wasn't anywhere near as partisan back then as it is today.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think it's over for Biden. He can still turn it around.

We already know it's not over, Blue Wall states that are affected by TX SCOTUS BAN, BUT red wall states are planning on banning abortion like FL, OH and SD


Maverick DeWine is 100% Pro life and passed Partial birth abortion ban before 2006 that's why it's a 304 not 413 map, it should help CCM and Hassan win over SUNUNU and Laxalt

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's get a 222/216 H Delegation and a 52/48 Senate they bypass Manchin on Filibuster reform and Tester a Casey moderate will ensure DC Statehood, he is best friends with both Sinema and Manchin but says LETS GET DC STATEHOOD DONE, avoiding Rs winning Senate in 2024

6 Rs can be Redistricted out of Orange County and 3 each on NY and IL

4 Rs lost in Orange county in 2018, that's why Rs targeted the RECALL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What amused me was the 57/35 number for Crist over DeSantis in between the Afghanistan crisis, D's were riding high until Biden unprecedented withdrawal from Afghanistan and Crist is back down to 3 pts against DeSantis and DeSantis is now favored, if Crist is down 3 pts as Biden lost FL by 3 it's a 3o4 map..


But some on the forum with their Endirsements think Demings and Charles Booker are still gonna win, Lol the state Delegation on the H and Senate are partisan except OH, MT and WVA making DC Statehood and holding the H and a 62)48 SEN CRITICAL

[kwabbit]

Biden is at 46/52 in Rasmussen. Ras is obviously skewed in one direction, but it’s often a leading indicator in approval polling, so it’s a sign Biden might be recovering.

[wbrocks67]

Biden is at 46/52 in Rasmussen. Ras is obviously skewed in one direction, but it’s often a leading indicator in approval polling, so it’s a sign Biden might be recovering.

With Afghanistan nearly completely out of the news, it would not be surprising.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Biden is at 46/52 in Rasmussen. Ras is obviously skewed in one direction, but it’s often a leading indicator in approval polling, so it’s a sign Biden might be recovering.

makes sense as the news shifts from Afghanistan to Texas' crazy abortion bill.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is at 46/52 in Rasmussen. Ras is obviously skewed in one direction, but it’s often a leading indicator in approval polling, so it’s a sign Biden might be recovering.

Why do you care so much on Polls 1 yr our from an Election, in it's just Afghanistan that hurts his Approvals, in a Covid Environment, people are gonna care far less about foreign policy than Domestic policies which will be on the ballot that's why Newsom and T Mac are still winning eventhough Biden is at 45%



Josh Mandel and JD Vance will be the worst Senators for PH, DeWine is a Maverick but Mandel already lost

Looking at Rassy that had an R House effect isn't gonna put Rs over the yop


He had Biden always at 50/ 45 for Trump