USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[muon2]

I have updated my cartogram of the states for the new Electoral College.

[Brittain33]

If NY had 89 more people, it wouldn't have lost seats?? This is crazy

MN is #435

Cuomo single-handedly cost New York a seat.

Who cost Texas its third?

[Non Swing Voter]

It is impossible to say if Cuomo "cost NY a seat."  Perhaps covid made New Yorkers shelter in place and not move out of state in 2020? 

Plus, who cares, it just went to another blue state.  It's not like it was NY and Kentucky vying for the last seat.

[politicallefty]

In terms of NY being so close, what would've been the 436th seat?

[Adam Griffin]

NORTH CAROLINA UNDERPERFORMANCE: 10,439,388 (Projected to be 10,576,099)

100k people gone!

I’m calling it. NC will surpass GA in population.

I'm sorry Vern, looks like we both were wrong.

Ohohoho SUCK IT NC

Code:

 
YEAR	 GA	        NC	        DIFF
2010	 9.687	9.535	0.152
2019	 10.617	10.488	0.129
2020	 10.725	10.453	0.272

[Gass3268]

Democrats are already trying to get LA (?), MN and PA redistricting thrown to state courts over federal courts.

https://twitter.com/DemRedistrict/status/1386845658280349699?s=20

[Skill and Chance]

In terms of NY being so close, what would've been the 436th seat?

NY-27, apparently.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats are already trying to get LA (?), MN and PA redistricting thrown to state courts over federal courts.

https://twitter.com/DemRedistrict/status/1386845658280349699?s=20

LA has explicitly partisan state court elections.  The state supreme court is 5R/1D/1I(former rural Dem).  Not sure what they are thinking there?

[Gass3268]

Democrats are already trying to get LA (?), MN and PA redistricting thrown to state courts over federal courts.

https://twitter.com/DemRedistrict/status/1386845658280349699?s=20

LA has explicitly partisan state court elections and only 1 Dem is on the supreme court right now.  Not sure what they are thinking there?

Maybe they think it would be better than the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals? I do like aggression however, especially in MN and PA.   

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats are already trying to get LA (?), MN and PA redistricting thrown to state courts over federal courts.

https://twitter.com/DemRedistrict/status/1386845658280349699?s=20

LA has explicitly partisan state court elections and only 1 Dem is on the supreme court right now.  Not sure what they are thinking there?

Maybe they think it would be better than the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals?

With Biden and the Dem senate, even the 5th Circuit will likely be less lopsided conservative by the time redistricting gets there.

[politicallefty]

In terms of NY being so close, what would've been the 436th seat?

NY-27, apparently.

Yeah, I definitely worded that wrong. I meant to ask about the 435th seat. Who would lose if NY kept it's 27th seat?

[Nyvin]

In terms of NY being so close, what would've been the 436th seat?

NY-27, apparently.

Yeah, I definitely worded that wrong. I meant to ask about the 435th seat. Who would lose if NY kept it's 27th seat?

MN-8

[jimrtex]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

Or barely anyone other than a few self-important pundits actually left cities?

Anyway, this is good but CA losing while so many other places don't is just disgusting.

Oh there were definitely people who left cities, just 1) not as much as the media portrayed it, and 2) not as far from major cities as the media also portrayed--people moved from Manhattan to Jersey City/Westchester, or from DC to Arlington/Alexandria

The answer was incorrect in terms of the intent of the question. By my calculation NY needed 3,056 more people to overtake MN. The spread in the proportional value for the seat was less than 100. I'll post the bubble seats with their proportional value shortly so you can judge how close states were to the threshold.

I think
89 is the correct answer.

Quotient for Minnesota is 5,709,752 / sqrt (7*8) = 762998

New York would need a population of 762998 * sqrt (26*27) = 20,215,840

New York change needed is 20,215,840 - 20,215,751 = 89

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

In terms of NY being so close, what would've been the 436th seat?

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-tableB.pdf

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

NJ came close to gaining a house seat. Wow.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The house size needs to be expanded. The undercount is so obvious here

[Vern]

NORTH CAROLINA UNDERPERFORMANCE: 10,439,388 (Projected to be 10,576,099)

100k people gone!

I’m calling it. NC will surpass GA in population.

I'm sorry Vern, looks like we both were wrong.

Ohohoho SUCK IT NC

Code:

 
YEAR GA        NC        DIFF
2010 9.687 9.535 0.152
2019 10.617 10.488 0.129
2020 10.725 10.453 0.272

Come on, don't be hating on NC.

[Starpaul20]

Here's how a Cube Root house would look like, with 692 seats (no map, sorry):

Code:

California	83
Texas		61
Florida		45
New York	42
Pennsylvania	27
Illinois	27
Ohio		25
Georgia		22
North Carolina	22
Michigan	21
New Jersey	19
Virginia	18
Washington	16
Arizona		15
Massachusetts	15
Tennessee	14
Indiana		14
Maryland	13
Missouri	13
Wisconsin	12
Colorado	12
Minnesota	12
South Carolina	11
Alabama		11
Louisiana	10
Kentucky	9
Oregon		9
Oklahoma	8
Connecticut	8
Utah		7
Iowa		7
Nevada		7
Arkansas	6
Mississippi	6
Kansas		6
New Mexico	4
Nebraska	4
Idaho		4
West Virginia	4
Hawaii		3
New Hampshire	3
Maine		3
Rhode Island	2
Montana		2
Delaware	2
South Dakota	2
North Dakota	2
Alaska		2
Vermont		1
Wyoming		1

Interestingly, if D.C. were a state in this scenario, it would have 2 seats (at the expense of Alabama and Nevada; cube root would still be 692).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

Or barely anyone other than a few self-important pundits actually left cities?

Anyway, this is good but CA losing while so many other places don't is just disgusting.

Oh there were definitely people who left cities, just 1) not as much as the media portrayed it, and 2) not as far from major cities as the media also portrayed--people moved from Manhattan to Jersey City/Westchester, or from DC to Arlington/Alexandria

The answer was incorrect in terms of the intent of the question. By my calculation NY needed 3,056 more people to overtake MN. The spread in the proportional value for the seat was less than 100. I'll post the bubble seats with their proportional value shortly so you can judge how close states were to the threshold.

I think
89 is the correct answer.

Quotient for Minnesota is 5,709,752 / sqrt (7* = 762998

New York would need a population of 762998 * sqrt (26*27) = 20,215,840

New York change needed is 20,215,840 - 20,215,751 = 89

Or we can reverse the calculation and say that Minnesota needed 26 fewer people.

If just 20 people had moved from MN to NY, I think that would have been enough.

[Real Texan Politics]

The house size needs to be expanded. The undercount is so obvious here

More than likely if they ever do it'll be if Puerto Rico becomes a state. Otherwise they gotta sacrifice 6 EC votes from some states, and I don't see that going over so well....

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I've crunched what a Wyoming Rule house size would look like in 2020:

(States in red gain 1 seat, blue gains 2 seats, green gains 3 seats, yellow gains 4 seats, brown gains 5 seats, orange gains 6 or more and gray means no change)

573 seats

How many seats would Puerto Rico have?

[Starpaul20]

I've crunched what a Wyoming Rule house size would look like in 2020:

(States in red gain 1 seat, blue gains 2 seats, green gains 3 seats, yellow gains 4 seats, brown gains 5 seats, orange gains 6 or more and gray means no change)

573 seats

How many seats would Puerto Rico have?

6

[dkxdjy]

Is there a timeline for when other figures (populations of cities, counties, etc.) will be released?

[muon2]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

Or barely anyone other than a few self-important pundits actually left cities?

Anyway, this is good but CA losing while so many other places don't is just disgusting.

Oh there were definitely people who left cities, just 1) not as much as the media portrayed it, and 2) not as far from major cities as the media also portrayed--people moved from Manhattan to Jersey City/Westchester, or from DC to Arlington/Alexandria

The answer was incorrect in terms of the intent of the question. By my calculation NY needed 3,056 more people to overtake MN. The spread in the proportional value for the seat was less than 100. I'll post the bubble seats with their proportional value shortly so you can judge how close states were to the threshold.

I think
89 is the correct answer.

Quotient for Minnesota is 5,709,752 / sqrt (7* = 762998

New York would need a population of 762998 * sqrt (26*27) = 20,215,840

New York change needed is 20,215,840 - 20,215,751 = 89

I agree with this. I relied on the table in Tender's original link, and that turned out to not include overseas population. That cut the shortage from over 3K to under 100. Given all the uncertainty in the Census collection and given that the pandemic was most prominent in NYC on Census Day, I would not be surprised to see a lawsuit to address the NY situation.

[Tintrlvr]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

Or barely anyone other than a few self-important pundits actually left cities?

Anyway, this is good but CA losing while so many other places don't is just disgusting.

Oh there were definitely people who left cities, just 1) not as much as the media portrayed it, and 2) not as far from major cities as the media also portrayed--people moved from Manhattan to Jersey City/Westchester, or from DC to Arlington/Alexandria

The answer was incorrect in terms of the intent of the question. By my calculation NY needed 3,056 more people to overtake MN. The spread in the proportional value for the seat was less than 100. I'll post the bubble seats with their proportional value shortly so you can judge how close states were to the threshold.

I think
89 is the correct answer.

Quotient for Minnesota is 5,709,752 / sqrt (7* = 762998

New York would need a population of 762998 * sqrt (26*27) = 20,215,840

New York change needed is 20,215,840 - 20,215,751 = 89

I agree with this. I relied on the table in Tender's original link, and that turned out to not include overseas population. That cut the shortage from over 3K to under 100. Given all the uncertainty in the Census collection and given that the pandemic was most prominent in NYC on Census Day, I would not be surprised to see a lawsuit to address the NY situation.

Utah's lawsuit over the 2000 Census was based on a significantly larger differential, wasn't it? I seem to recall they lost out on their fourth seat to North Carolina based on a few hundred people at least. Of course, they ultimately lost their suit, too, but I think it did result in some shifts in the numbers, maybe even enough to make a difference for New York this time if the same changes applied.