USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Nyvin]

Alabama and Rhode Island actually weren't even all that close to losing seats...weird.

[Tender Branson]

THE TABLES !!!

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/population-change-data-table.pdf

NY over 20 million !!

PA over 13 million !

Based on these numbers NY appears to be about 3,000 people off from the last seat, not 89. Unless I'm doing the calculation wrong.

This is the resident population.

You need to use the apportionment population to calculate seats:

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-table01.pdf

[Skill and Chance]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

Or barely anyone other than a few self-important pundits actually left cities?

Anyway, this is good but CA losing while so many other places don't is just disgusting.

Oh there were definitely people who left cities, just 1) not as much as the media portrayed it, and 2) not as far from major cities as the media also portrayed--people moved from Manhattan to Jersey City/Westchester, or from DC to Arlington/Alexandria

Also, the oil crash didn't get enough attention.  Likely explains lack of TX-39 and lower MT population than RI.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

I don't know but I get the feeling that Boise and SLC are the metros to watch this decade. Whether it shows up in apportionment by 2030 is beyond my guess.

[Crumpets]

2020 Overseas Population (Military + Family)

350,686

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-table03.pdf

2010 Overseas Population (Military + Family)

1,042,523

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2010/data/apportionment/apport2010-table3.pdf

2000 Overseas Population (Military + Family)

576,367

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2000/data/apportionment/transmittal-package-table-3.pdf

1990 Overseas Population (Military + Family)

922,819

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/1990/data/apportionment/taba.pdf

---

700.000 overseas military + families moving back to the mainland between 2010-20 might have contributed to the resident population overcount of 2 million (331.5 million) vs. the estimates (329.5 million).

We brought our troops home! Peace in our time!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

I don't know but I get the feeling that Boise and SLC are the metros to watch this decade. Whether it shows up in apportionment by 2030 is beyond my guess.

Correct. 10-year projections are a crapshoot but growth in the inner Mountain West (Idaho to 3, Utah and Nevada to 5, Arizona to 10) all looks probable for 2030.

[Brittain33]

Also, the oil crash didn't get enough attention.  Likely explains lack of TX-39 and lower MT population than RI.

I think RI's overperformance against estimates is a more significant factor for it staying ahead of MT

[Skill and Chance]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

I don't know but I get the feeling that Boise and SLC are the metros to watch this decade. Whether it shows up in apportionment by 2030 is beyond my guess.

Correct. 10-year projections are a crapshoot but the inner Mountain West (Idaho to 3, Utah and Nevada to 5, Arizona to 10) all look probable for 2030.

MS-04 has to be in danger for 2030 if the current trend continues.  How far from the chopping block was MS this time around?

[Skill and Chance]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

At this rate:

New York: 50,000,000
California: 40,000,000
New Jersey: 30,000,000
Texas: 25,000,000
Florida: 15,000,000

So multiple Cat 5 hurricane hits or the Great Gulf Coast Mosquito Fever of 2027?

[beesley]

How close were we to ID-3?

[Gass3268]

How close were we to ID-3?

ID-03 was #443.

[Tender Branson]

The mapz:

[GALeftist]

It seems clear that this theoretical Hispanic undercount affected NY and NJ was less than other states with high Hispanic populations, but is it possible that the undercount (if indeed there was one) costed NY its 27th seat?

[Nyvin]

Hispanic-heavy states all universally took a hit (AZ/FL/TX in particular).   Seems like Trump's efforts with the Census Bureau really sabotaged those states pretty hard.

[ultraviolet]

According to my apportionment calculator, the 89 number regarding NY does not appear to be correct. 3,056 more people were needed for NY to retain its seat, although I may be doing something wrong

[Brittain33]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

I don't know but I get the feeling that Boise and SLC are the metros to watch this decade. Whether it shows up in apportionment by 2030 is beyond my guess.

Correct. 10-year projections are a crapshoot but the inner Mountain West (Idaho to 3, Utah and Nevada to 5, Arizona to 10) all look probable for 2030.

MS-04 has to be in danger for 2030 if the current trend continues.  How far from the chopping block was MS this time around?

MS with zero growth is 1m/seat for 3 seats or 750k/seat for 4 seats. I don't think there's any chance the U.S. grows that much faster than MS that it drops to 3 seats.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

I don't know but I get the feeling that Boise and SLC are the metros to watch this decade. Whether it shows up in apportionment by 2030 is beyond my guess.

Correct. 10-year projections are a crapshoot but the inner Mountain West (Idaho to 3, Utah and Nevada to 5, Arizona to 10) all look probable for 2030.

MS-04 has to be in danger for 2030 if the current trend continues.  How far from the chopping block was MS this time around?

MS with zero growth is 1m/seat for 3 seats or 750k/seat for 4 seats. I don't think there's any chance the U.S. grows that much faster than MS that it drops to 3 seats.

MS birth rate is the only thing allowing it to break even.

[MT Treasurer]

VA not having gained anything since 1990 is honestly astonishing to me.

[Brittain33]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

I don't know but I get the feeling that Boise and SLC are the metros to watch this decade. Whether it shows up in apportionment by 2030 is beyond my guess.

Correct. 10-year projections are a crapshoot but the inner Mountain West (Idaho to 3, Utah and Nevada to 5, Arizona to 10) all look probable for 2030.

MS-04 has to be in danger for 2030 if the current trend continues.  How far from the chopping block was MS this time around?

MS with zero growth is 1m/seat for 3 seats or 750k/seat for 4 seats. I don't think there's any chance the U.S. grows that much faster than MS that it drops to 3 seats.

MS birth rate is the only thing allowing it to break even.

To answer the original question, MS-4 was the 389th seat allocated this time, so it's quite safe for 2030 barring a hurricane destroying the coast.

[Alcibiades]

I had an inkling the estimates would be off, but when I saw that RI was keeping two seats and NY fell only just short of keeping all its current ones ... wow.

Overall pretty good for the Dems.

[Wormless Gourd]

Puerto Rico lost 11.8% of it's population since 2010 and hasn't had this few people on the island since the 1980s.

[Tender Branson]

The sortable tables are up:

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/states/admin

[muon2]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

Or barely anyone other than a few self-important pundits actually left cities?

Anyway, this is good but CA losing while so many other places don't is just disgusting.

Oh there were definitely people who left cities, just 1) not as much as the media portrayed it, and 2) not as far from major cities as the media also portrayed--people moved from Manhattan to Jersey City/Westchester, or from DC to Arlington/Alexandria

The answer was incorrect in terms of the intent of the question. By my calculation NY needed 3,056 more people to overtake MN. The spread in the proportional value for the seat was less than 100. I'll post the bubble seats with their proportional value shortly so you can judge how close states were to the threshold.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

VA not having gained anything since 1990 is honestly astonishing to me.

Blame southern and southwestern VA. Internally, chunks of seats get redistributed upward to NOVA each cycle.

[Tintrlvr]

These patterns seem extremely suggestive of large Latino under-counts, likely down to the Trump admin's relentless politicizing and citizenship question.

I don’t see it. Arizona was way overestimated, but California, Texas, Florida etc. were not overestimated meaningfully, they were just not underestimated to the degree of New York, New Jersey, etc. And nationally the population was underestimated, not overestimated. It seems more likely that the estimates overstated interstate migration and understated immigration in the Northeast, while the Census got them right. The estimates are always off a fair amount.