My ratings as of today would be this:
No data backs it up either.
Imagine thinking kansas is likely R in this environment...
Michigan is no lean D state (and neither is PA, President Johnson). Again no data backs that up, just are ratings based on wishy-washy thinking or personal gut feelings and ignoring that Biden is in trouble.
Might very well change in 6 months from now but if you really believe that, than don't make a map at all...
To observe an election, one has to be neutral and detached in order to have the best chance of accurately predicting the election. It's why i did well in 2018 - predicting all winning senators correctly - and correctly predicted the 2016 and 2020 winners despite not being an American. In fact, not being an American arguably helped, since i'm not as invested in this race as some of users are here...
It's my number 1 rule if one does online betting. Never bet on something you are invested in, because that clouds your judgment.
Also polls in all rust belt states show the race within the margin of error, so I don’t get you saying there is “no data” to back it up.
Also, there’s more to predicting an election then just polls, for example, fundamentals, fundraising, specials etc all favour Dems. I’m taking this into account
But yeah my prediction can definitely change in 6 months as should come to a surprise to nobody it is a tossup race.