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Still Canada. I remain pretty confident that Poilievre won't win. Even if he does, though, there's no way he can cause nearly as much damage as Trump simply by nature of the Canadian system.

why is Luís Montenegro the most popular?

It depends on the polling company. For example, today's Intercampus poll for CMTV and CM/Negócios newspapers:

Vote share %: (after 6.3% of undecideds are excluded)

24.7% PS (-4.0)
23.7% PSD/CDS/PPM (-0.6)
17.4% CHEGA (+1.8 )
  9.4% Livre (+3.7)
  9.0% IL (+1.1)
  8.2% BE (-1.5)
  3.2% PAN (+0.3)
  2.5% CDU (+0.2)
  1.9% Others/Invalid (-1.0)

Popularity ratings: (between 0 and 5)

3.2 Rui Tavares (+0.2)
3.0 Luís Montenegro (+0.1)
3.0 Rui Rocha (+0.1)
2.9 Pedro Nuno Santos (+0.1)
2.8 Mariana Mortágua (+0.1)
2.8 Inês Sousa Real (nc)
2.6 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.4)
2.5 Nuno Melo (nc)
2.4 Paulo Raimundo (nc)
2.4 André Ventura (+0.2)

Poll conducted between 12 and 20 May 2024. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

As you can see, it depends on the polling method, but Montenegro is still one of the most popular party leaders, alongside Livre's Rui Tavares, and closely followed by IL's Rui Rocha and PS' Pedro Nuno Santos. What both polls match is in the big fall in popularity of President Marcelo, which was already expected.

I liken Bush's positions to those of Mike Pence with Bush as a much better campaigner.  I think historians will view the apex of the power of evangelical conservatives in the GOP as 2004.  Their power seemed to dwindle in each successive primary campaign after that if you look at the trajectory of nominees.  That doesn't mean they aren't still a major constituency, especially in a general election, but candidates with strong social conservative records have not tended to emerge from the GOP field since 2004 as you have McCain, Romney, and Trump, all of whom have more more social records.

Despite the headwinds, though, Bush would still make a strong candidate today on the basis of his ability to relate to voters, charisma, and executive leadership in Texas.  Seeing him in his prime debate Trump would be worth a watch.

Disgusting. Marijuana should be illegal because it smells bad.

Disagree, every American has the right to make his or her home smell as bad as they want.

If I'm in a Tory or Lab safe seat, Labour
If I'm in a marginal, Conservative
I want the Tories defeated but not completely destroyed. It's good for the UK to have a Conservative Party as the main party of the right.

Never change Tim lmao

I see Lord Frost has been blocked from standing by CCHQ. Lol

Is Greater Manchester Police also going to be affected by purdah?

Per the Times, GMP have said the investigation will be complete by the election.

Unclear if that means a pre/post purdah decision, or they're going to make a mid-campaign announcement - Swinford doesn't speculate on a specific date in the article.

Haven't quite thought of the trifecta impact but I would say that Trump would probably be in an even stronger position right now if not for all the "Stop the steal!" and January 6 happenings.

Even if they saw it on TV trials are meaningless unless one is convicted, indicting Trump had little meaning period

Yeah people don't like inflation but Trump is wrong on tax cuts for rich