2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Tender Branson]

I think what we could be witnessing right now is cannibalism of the Election Day vote.

Trump voters and Republicans may no longer wait to vote on Election Day and vote early instead.

This could result in lower Election Day turnout and lower turnout in general ...

That’s why the latest early in-person numbers tilt Republican.

On the other hand, I don’t really know what’s going on.

[Tender Branson]

I think what we could be witnessing right now is cannibalism of the Election Day vote.

Trump voters and Republicans may no longer wait to vote on Election Day and vote early instead.

This could result in lower Election Day turnout and lower turnout in general ...

That’s why the latest early in-person numbers tilt Republican.

On the other hand, I don’t really know what’s going on.

I think it is more likely that Democratic Election Day turnout is being cannibalized. The Democrats have increased their raw early votes by more than the Republicans have so far.

Dems are just as motivated to vote as Republicans this year.

So, there won’t be many differences between them if all votes are in (even if the Dems vote earlier than the Republicans).

The big unknown are the Independents.

Trump still has a lot going for him actually. His supporters are motivated and will not sit the election out, like what happened with the far-right FPÖ here a few weeks ago in Vienna.

Republicans also registered twice as many people in swing states this year compared to Democrats, maybe indicative of higher enthusiasm on Election Day.

Trump is also an incumbent and voters often do not like to change horses in the midst of a crisis.

On the other hand, Dems have higher competence on health issues than Reps.

I think that the polls will likely be wrong again of some sorts, but Biden pulls it out.

[Tender Branson]

California just passed Texas for the most votes = 7.4 million!

California Uber Alles.... Left Coast rules!!!

CA has 10 million people more than TX, no big deal.

[Tender Branson]

I think several states will still manage to see hour-long lines on election day, despite having 80% of the total vote already in ...

Even (South) Africa has better election organisation.

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321335605859622912

Austin grows like an African country though, at 3-4% annual population growth.

So, that turnout increase in raw numbers is nothing unusual.

[Tender Branson]

OR ballot return statistics (until Oct. 26, full day returns):

2020:

1,364,044

2016:

566,334

Oct. 26 this year corresponds to Oct. 30 in 2016.

---

About 1 million ballots in 2016 were recorded as received in the last 3 days (Nov. 6-8).

Let's see how this works out in the coming week ...

Was it possible in 2016 that ballots came in a day after the election (Nov. 8 vs. Nov. 7) ?

476.000 ballots came in one day after election day in 2016 ...

[Tender Branson]

JMC guy says that Hawaii is now the first state at 100% or more of their 2016 total vote.

TX and MT not far behind.

[Tender Branson]

Found this in the 2016 thread, about five days before the election on Nov 2:

Total Ballots cast: 4,466,624

Total Vote By Mail: 2,168,750(51.4%)
Total Early Vote: 2,297,874 (48.6%)

Republicans: 1,798,954 (40.3%)
Democrats: 1,781,498 (39.9%)
NPA: 886,172 (19.8%)

Total Margin: GOP +0.39%

According to here: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

Democrats 2,992,000 40.5
Republicans 2,787,723 37.7
Minor 95,904 1.3
No Party Affiliation 1,510,040 20.4

2016: R+0.39
2020: D+2.8

2016: 17k R advantage
2020: 215k D advangate

2016 vote: R+1.19 (about 0.8% better than their early vote lead), or about 112k votes (95k better than early vote lead.)

Edit: Thank you to whoever posted the early vote tracker weeks ago, I've gotten quite a lot of use out of it regarding early vote and keeping tabs on mail ballots.

A 215k D vote advantage could easily turn into a 2016-style R vote lead considering all that is left on election day.

If 2 million additional voters are voting on Tuesday in FL and they break 70-30 Republican, Republicans would net 800k votes on election day.

A 215k D advantage would turn into a 600k R lead ...

[Tender Branson]

Why are CA, UT and NJ lagging so far behind other all-Mail states ?

I thought these states have sent mail ballots to all registered voters too this year ?

[Tender Branson]

2.3 million votes now returned in CO.

Republicans have returned 50k ballots yesterday, Dems 40k.

Dems remain far ahead though by more than 150k returned ballots.

In 2016, Republicans finished slightly ahead of Dems by a few thousand ballots.

This time, Dems should come out 100k ballots ahead by Tuesday.

[Tender Branson]

My turnout estimate for CO would be 3-3.5 million ballots.

Up significantly from the 2.86 million in 2016.

I expect ca. 3 million mail ballots by Tuesday evening and another few hundred thousand Election Day votes.

That could be 85-90% of registered voters there and almost 80% of the VEP.

CO could give MN a run for the turnout money this year.

[Tender Branson]

What’s „curb-side voting“ ?

[Tender Branson]

What’s „curb-side voting“ ?

A drive through, like a fast food restaurant, where your cars are in line and you eventually pull up to vote, vote, and go home without ever leaving your car. Harris County isn't the ONLY county to do it, but it's the only large one.

Is there a full election commission present, consisting of D+R+I commission members ?

How is this administered ?

[Tender Branson]

If this „curb-side voting“ is handled like a regular election precinct/polling station, with an election commission present, and this judge invalidates 100.000 votes, he’ll probably have crosshairs on his body ...

„We know where you live, you will not see the next day.“

[Tender Branson]

A poll worker signs you in, checks your ID, and you vote on the voting machine. Like most Texas voting sites, except outdoors and you don't leave the car.

Is there also a precinct election commission present at this drive-thru made up of D/R/I members, like in a regular polling station ?

[Tender Branson]

How can Republicans even try to justify this? This is just blatantly evil and anti-democracy.

?

Republicans are the embodiment of EVIL.

[Tender Branson]

GA finishes JUST short of overtaking 2016 turnout in early voting.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322637916313735168

But mail ballots are still coming in on Monday.

Maybe they reach 100% with this weekend dump.

[Tender Branson]

Dems finish +250k ahead of the Reps in NC ?

If another million votes on election day and they skew 50-25-25 Republican, there would be ca. 2 million votes each for registered Rs and Ds.

All comes down to the Indys.

[Tender Branson]

Dems finish +250k ahead of the Reps in NC ?

If another million votes on election day and they skew 50-25-25 Republican, there would be ca. 2 million votes each for registered Rs and Ds.

All comes down to the Indys.

By all accounts the Indys are breaking heavily for Biden.

Most likely, but that's only an assumption and not a fact.

It only shows that Ds and Rs are equally motivated to vote and Trump will still get a huge vote infusion on Tuesday, while the D votes are mostly banked.

[Tender Branson]

McDonald:

"Regrettably, I have signed a non-disclosure agreement with the national exit poll organization that prevents me from going into greater detail about state turnout estimates, as I have in past years. I will be allowed to post estimates late on election night, which I will continue to update in the days afterwards as results are reported. Trust me, no one is more disappointed than me about this situation."

WTF ?

What's wrong with estimating state turnouts ?

[Tender Branson]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

[Tender Branson]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

Polls have shown that the mail-vote is overwhelmingly D, the early in-person vote strongly R and the remaining election-day vote even stronger R.

[Tender Branson]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

Polls have shown that the mail-vote is overwhelmingly D, the early in-person vote strongly R and the remaining election-day vote even stronger R.

Nationally yes, do we have any florida polling on this, florida ev has been quite different and we've had multiple bits on how minority voters do not want to vote by mail and may turnout more so on election day.

We do not, he seems to just be guessing

No, I'm not guessing.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/fl/fl10292020_crosstabs_bgth12.pdf

Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election
Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?

38% mail/absentee ballot
43% early in-person
17% election day in person

VOTING METHOD Q2:

38% mail/absentee ballot (60-25 Biden)
43% early in-person (50-39 Trump)
17% election day in person (62-30 Trump)

[Tender Branson]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

How wet is your bed right now?

What are you talking about ?

I quoted the Quinnipiac poll that showed the vote tomorrow will be overwhelmingly Republican.

It shows that in the end, more Republicans than Democrats will have voted again, just like in 2016.

But it doesn't mean much, because the Indys will decide everything.

[Tender Branson]

Guys, don’t fool yourselves ...

Tomorrow will see hordes of Trump supporters in front of polling stations and Trump will tweet the whole day how great that is.
 
Only a handful of Dem-leaning people in between.