2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[n1240]

Seems unlikely there will be a "massive surge" for Trump on ED in NC

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323276663703166978

He's misinterpreting the data. 72% of black voters already voted in the survey, and 30% of those who indicated they haven't are indicating they will vote on election day, which comes out to 8.4% of black voters voting on election day.

[Malarkey Decider]

Seems unlikely there will be a "massive surge" for Trump on ED in NC

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323276663703166978

He's misinterpreting the data. 72% of black voters already voted in the survey, and 30% of those who indicated they haven't are indicating they will vote on election day, which comes out to 8.4% of black voters voting on election day.

Read over the thing again.

[Tender Branson]

Guys, don’t fool yourselves ...

Tomorrow will see hordes of Trump supporters in front of polling stations and Trump will tweet the whole day how great that is.
 
Only a handful of Dem-leaning people in between.

[n1240]

Seems unlikely there will be a "massive surge" for Trump on ED in NC

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323276663703166978

He's misinterpreting the data. 72% of black voters already voted in the survey, and 30% of those who indicated they haven't are indicating they will vote on election day, which comes out to 8.4% of black voters voting on election day.

Read over the thing again.

What am I missing? Question 3 explicitly says (If didn't already vote) at the beginning. Question 1 asks if voters have already voted, and 72% of black voters indicated they already voted. Therefore 28% of black voters in the survey had not already voted, and 30% of those voters said they will vote on election day. .28*.30=.084

[mijan]

955971 Iowans have voted early.
D 438155
R 316512
NPA 196866

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

[swf541]

Guys, don’t fool yourselves ...

Tomorrow will see hordes of Trump supporters in front of polling stations and Trump will tweet the whole day how great that is.
 
Only a handful of Dem-leaning people in between.

Trump should win Election Day turnout in many if not most/all states the question is the margin and the actual final turnout.


But wait arent you the same guy extrapolating austrian election results a few weeks back on how no one was going to vote on election day?

[TheLaRocca]

Can you guys stop reading into early vote numbers?

We simply do not know how NPAs are voting in Nevada (Ralstons prediction is around accurate but likely 5-6 Biden).

So no point in this exists.

[It’s so Joever]

Guys, don’t fool yourselves ...

Tomorrow will see hordes of Trump supporters in front of polling stations and Trump will tweet the whole day how great that is.
 
Only a handful of Dem-leaning people in between.

I think it will depend on the state. For instance, I expect plenty of Dems to turnout in Northern states which aren’t as accustomed to mail-in voting and early voting, while states such as Texas will probably be near completely Republican on ED.

[Bootes Void]

Ralston is being fairly conservative when he says Biden will Nevada by 5 to 6. As for election day, it will be fairly republican but there are democrats voting there as well

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

955971 Iowans have voted early.
D 438155
R 316512
NPA 196866

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

So per the Civiqs poll, those that already voted support Biden/Greenfield 67-32. Those that are still to vote support Trump/Ernst 67-27. Assuming NPA's split evenly, by this math Republicans need to basically match the EV turnout on election day to have a chance, which seems unlikely (1.5 million people voted in 2016, the turnout in 2020 would need to be 500,000 more than that to counter EV).

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1323308327477141506

[Ferguson97]

955971 Iowans have voted early.
D 438155
R 316512
NPA 196866

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

So per the Civiqs poll, those that already voted support Biden/Greenfield 67-32. Those that are still to vote support Trump/Ernst 67-27. Assuming NPA's split evenly, by this math Republicans need to basically match the EV turnout on election day to have a chance, which seems unlikely (1.5 million people voted in 2016, the turnout in 2020 would need to be 500,000 more than that to counter EV).

Wait, so blue Iowa is back in the realm of possibility?

[swf541]

955971 Iowans have voted early.
D 438155
R 316512
NPA 196866

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

So per the Civiqs poll, those that already voted support Biden/Greenfield 67-32. Those that are still to vote support Trump/Ernst 67-27. Assuming NPA's split evenly, by this math Republicans need to basically match the EV turnout on election day to have a chance, which seems unlikely (1.5 million people voted in 2016, the turnout in 2020 would need to be 500,000 more than that to counter EV).

Wait, so blue Iowa is back in the realm of possibility?

It was never not in the realm of possibility

[Non Swing Voter]

The Dem early vote lead is ticking up again in Florida... currently at 111k.

[swf541]

The Dem early vote lead is ticking up again in Florida... currently at 111k.

Expected due to mails in ballots received today.

[Bootes Void]

160- 170 k dem lead today in Florida today with over 9 million votes casts compared to 100k dem lead with 6 million votes cast back on 2016.

I'd say Dems are still favoured even when you account NPAs going for Biden

[swf541]

160- 170 k dem lead today in Florida today with over 9 million votes casts compared to 100k dem lead with 6 million votes cast back on 2016.

I'd say Dems are still favoured even when you account NPAs going for Biden

People also seem to be ignoring polling shows a significantly higher defection rates of republicans to Biden then Dems to Trump in Florida.  This + NPAs doesnt portend well for Trumps chances

Of course its floride I aint hedging my bets but its not clearly favored for either side atm and whoever is telling you otherwise is either a fool or lying.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

955971 Iowans have voted early.
D 438155
R 316512
NPA 196866

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

So per the Civiqs poll, those that already voted support Biden/Greenfield 67-32. Those that are still to vote support Trump/Ernst 67-27. Assuming NPA's split evenly, by this math Republicans need to basically match the EV turnout on election day to have a chance, which seems unlikely (1.5 million people voted in 2016, the turnout in 2020 would need to be 500,000 more than that to counter EV).

Wait, so blue Iowa is back in the realm of possibility?

The logic of this hinges on the Civiqs poll, I couldn't find another recent poll with crosstabs that indicated preference between already voted/still-to-vote. But to me, unless E-day in IA pushes turnout to 1.9 million, I'd say the GOP were on the back foot.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1323308083255386114

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323301493890523136

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323301493890523136

Starting to feel strangely upbeat about Florida for Biden.

[mijan]

955971 Iowans have voted early.
D 438155
R 316512
NPA 196866

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

So per the Civiqs poll, those that already voted support Biden/Greenfield 67-32. Those that are still to vote support Trump/Ernst 67-27. Assuming NPA's split evenly, by this math Republicans need to basically match the EV turnout on election day to have a chance, which seems unlikely (1.5 million people voted in 2016, the turnout in 2020 would need to be 500,000 more than that to counter EV).

Iowa has 2.09 millions voters. So 2 millions turn out is simply impossible.
Total turnout will probably within the range of 1.65-1.70 millions voters. So, I think on election day 650 k to 700k voters will come.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

955971 Iowans have voted early.
D 438155
R 316512
NPA 196866

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

So per the Civiqs poll, those that already voted support Biden/Greenfield 67-32. Those that are still to vote support Trump/Ernst 67-27. Assuming NPA's split evenly, by this math Republicans need to basically match the EV turnout on election day to have a chance, which seems unlikely (1.5 million people voted in 2016, the turnout in 2020 would need to be 500,000 more than that to counter EV).

Iowa has 2.09 millions voters. So 2 millions turn out is simply impossible.
Total turnout will probably within the range of 1.65-1.70 millions voters. So, I think on election day 650 k to 700k voters will come.

1.7 seems a bit high. That’s 85% turnout.

[charcuterie]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323301493890523136

Starting to feel strangely upbeat about Florida for Biden.

[mijan]

955971 Iowans have voted early.
D 438155
R 316512
NPA 196866

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

So per the Civiqs poll, those that already voted support Biden/Greenfield 67-32. Those that are still to vote support Trump/Ernst 67-27. Assuming NPA's split evenly, by this math Republicans need to basically match the EV turnout on election day to have a chance, which seems unlikely (1.5 million people voted in 2016, the turnout in 2020 would need to be 500,000 more than that to counter EV).

Iowa has 2.09 millions voters. So 2 millions turn out is simply impossible.
Total turnout will probably within the range of 1.65-1.70 millions voters. So, I think on election day 650 k to 700k voters will come.

1.7 seems a bit high. That’s 85% turnout.

Yes, but
Quinapiac poll says election day voters will be 44% of turnout .
Election projects are saying 50% Iowans will vote on election day. That is  insane.

Turnout in IA 2012 was 81%,2016 72%