2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323186161586741250

That’s interesting (and good that a “signature cure” exists; I was worried about that). 44% of ballots that have needed a signature cure are Democratic thus far and 24% are Republican.

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

With the last day of EV Dems stay on top for turnout.  This is a 2 point swing compared to 2016 where Reps were ahead by 1.8 pts in term of turnout at the end of EV.

Great job getting to 2/3rds turnout before Election Day!

Dems 66.2%  (+1.9 gain yesterday)
Reps  65.9%  (+1.8 )
NPAs  51.5%  (+2.1)





As far as the counties go, no one can say Dems haven't turned out.... amazing turnout so far in very large counties!  Blowing past 2016 EV numbers.  Whatever happens in crazy Florida, we Dems down here have put up a good fight.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Turnout Tracker

With the last day of EV Dems stay on top for turnout.  This is a 2 point swing compared to 2016 where Reps were ahead by 1.8 pts in term of turnout at the end of EV.

Great job getting to 2/3rds turnout before Election Day!

Dems 66.2%  (+1.9 gain yesterday)
Reps  65.9%  (+1.8 )
NPAs  51.5%  (+2.1)





As far as the counties go, no one can say Dems haven't turned out.... amazing turnout so far in very large counties!  Blowing past 2016 EV numbers.  Whatever happens in crazy Florida, we Dems down here have put up a good fight.

Thanks for continuing to put this together.  Do you know if those numbers include the update from Miami from yesterday?

[SLA8]

Based on the turnout numbers I think it does

[wbrocks67]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

[Bootes Void]

Biden a winning Nevada by more than 4 points

[Tender Branson]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

[swf541]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

[Tender Branson]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

Polls have shown that the mail-vote is overwhelmingly D, the early in-person vote strongly R and the remaining election-day vote even stronger R.

[swf541]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

Polls have shown that the mail-vote is overwhelmingly D, the early in-person vote strongly R and the remaining election-day vote even stronger R.

Nationally yes, do we have any florida polling on this, florida ev has been quite different and we've had multiple bits on how minority voters do not want to vote by mail and may turnout more so on election day.

[wbrocks67]

NORTH CAROLINA

44K new ballots processed

Dems 1,701,366 (37.4%)
Reps 1,443,822 (31.7%)
Others 1,405,775 (30.8%)
= 4,550,963

Dems with 5.7% / +258K lead. Yesterday it was 5.7% / +257K.

95% of 2016 turnout

[wbrocks67]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

Polls have shown that the mail-vote is overwhelmingly D, the early in-person vote strongly R and the remaining election-day vote even stronger R.

Nationally yes, do we have any florida polling on this, florida ev has been quite different and we've had multiple bits on how minority voters do not want to vote by mail and may turnout more so on election day.

We do not, he seems to just be guessing

[swf541]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

Polls have shown that the mail-vote is overwhelmingly D, the early in-person vote strongly R and the remaining election-day vote even stronger R.

Nationally yes, do we have any florida polling on this, florida ev has been quite different and we've had multiple bits on how minority voters do not want to vote by mail and may turnout more so on election day.

We do not, he seems to just be guessing

Thought so, but yea I question how much higher turnout will be in some of these states that are already pushing 95%-100% range of total 2016 turnout

[Tender Branson]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

Polls have shown that the mail-vote is overwhelmingly D, the early in-person vote strongly R and the remaining election-day vote even stronger R.

Nationally yes, do we have any florida polling on this, florida ev has been quite different and we've had multiple bits on how minority voters do not want to vote by mail and may turnout more so on election day.

We do not, he seems to just be guessing

No, I'm not guessing.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/fl/fl10292020_crosstabs_bgth12.pdf

Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election
Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?

38% mail/absentee ballot
43% early in-person
17% election day in person

VOTING METHOD Q2:

38% mail/absentee ballot (60-25 Biden)
43% early in-person (50-39 Trump)
17% election day in person (62-30 Trump)

[forsythvoter]

These numbers though would imply that Biden is already up 10% among those who have already voted (about 900K votes), so even there would have be ~3M election day votes for Trump to win. Most turnout projections seem to be for 1.5-2M election day votes.

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

Polls have shown that the mail-vote is overwhelmingly D, the early in-person vote strongly R and the remaining election-day vote even stronger R.

Nationally yes, do we have any florida polling on this, florida ev has been quite different and we've had multiple bits on how minority voters do not want to vote by mail and may turnout more so on election day.

We do not, he seems to just be guessing

No, I'm not guessing.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/fl/fl10292020_crosstabs_bgth12.pdf

Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election
Day, vote early by mail or absentee ballot, or vote at an early voting location?

38% mail/absentee ballot
43% early in-person
17% election day in person

VOTING METHOD Q2:

38% mail/absentee ballot (60-25 Biden)
43% early in-person (50-39 Trump)
17% election day in person (62-30 Trump)

[wbrocks67]

Right, but you saying 50-25-25 is completely made up.

[Non Swing Voter]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

How wet is your bed right now?

[roxas11]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

Source on any of this?

Polls have shown that the mail-vote is overwhelmingly D, the early in-person vote strongly R and the remaining election-day vote even stronger R.

This is the part I'm not so sure about
I mean we all assume that is what will happen but this can also be situation where the GOP ends up underperforming by cannibalizing a lot of their election day vote

plus we can not rule out the possibility that minority turnout Will increasing on election day

[Tender Branson]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

How wet is your bed right now?

What are you talking about ?

I quoted the Quinnipiac poll that showed the vote tomorrow will be overwhelmingly Republican.

It shows that in the end, more Republicans than Democrats will have voted again, just like in 2016.

But it doesn't mean much, because the Indys will decide everything.

[Non Swing Voter]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

How wet is your bed right now?

What are you talking about ?

I quoted the Quinnipiac poll that showed the vote tomorrow will be overwhelmingly Republican.

It shows that in the end, more Republicans than Democrats will have voted again, just like in 2016.

But it doesn't mean much, because the Indys will decide everything.

This is unreasonable doomerism.  There are so few voters left that.  A lot of the people who initially said they'd vote on Election Day have likely already voted early.  He's not going to net half a million votes on Election Day.  Plus the NPA's who voted early likely lean Biden, probably heavily.

[Bootes Void]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

How wet is your bed right now?

What are you talking about ?

I quoted the Quinnipiac poll that showed the vote tomorrow will be overwhelmingly Republican.

It shows that in the end, more Republicans than Democrats will have voted again, just like in 2016.

But it doesn't mean much, because the Indys will decide everything.

There isn't a large pool of voters left as there was back in 2016. Both parties in Florida are at nearly at 70% of the RV turnout

[ExSky]

FLORIDA
Dems 3,512,211 (39.1%)
Reps 3,404,088 (37.9%)
Other 2,058,597 (22.9%)
= 8,974,896

Florida now at nearly 95% of 2016 turnout, with Dems at a 1.2% lead and +108K votes.

Republicans will likely come out with a half-million lead after election day overall, but it's the Indys that will decide it.

Election day will likely add another 1-2 million in FL, and those skew 50-25-25 Republican.

How wet is your bed right now?

What are you talking about ?

I quoted the Quinnipiac poll that showed the vote tomorrow will be overwhelmingly Republican.

It shows that in the end, more Republicans than Democrats will have voted again, just like in 2016.

But it doesn't mean much, because the Indys will decide everything.

Basic math can be hard. There’s not enough votes left for that to happen

[wbrocks67]

Seems unlikely there will be a "massive surge" for Trump on ED in NC

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323276663703166978

[vitoNova]

It doesn't make much sense to me why black voters AND conservative voters disproportionately wait until Election Day to vote.

[soundchaser]

It doesn't make much sense to me why black voters AND conservative voters disproportionately wait until Election Day to vote.

Inherent distrust of their vote counting (probably historically fair in the former case).