2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Non Swing Voter]

913,000 voters have already voted in Miami-Dade.  That doesn't seem that bad.  Even though you could argue that Republicans are overrepresented, this should cut wait times on Election Day.  It looks like this will be the first election where Miami-Dade will have more than 1 million votes.

[Crumpets]

We've officially crossed the 90 million vote mark nation-wide.

[wbrocks67]

Wait, are people really dooming about PA? This is our first year doing full blown mail ballots, and as of yesterday we were at nearly 75% return rate! And Dems are nearly 80%! Those #s are great! Not sure how you can find some type of bad situation there.

Not to mention, I would imagine that like in many states, most black voters are waiting until election day.

If anything, I would still be worrying if i was Republicans. Dems have now built a +1M lead and Reps are not returning their ballots as fast as Dems are.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wait, are people really dooming about PA? This is our first year doing full blown mail ballots, and as of yesterday we were at nearly 75% return rate! And Dems are nearly 80%! Those #s are great! Not sure how you can find some type of bad situation there.

Not to mention, I would imagine that like in many states, most black voters are waiting until election day.

If anything, I would still be worrying if i was Republicans. Dems have now built a +1M lead and Reps are not returning their ballots as fast as Dems are.

I think many are worried about the outstanding ballots.  Even though Dems have returned at a higher rate they still have more outstanding ballots.  If the election is tight people are probably worried that more Dems will put them in the mail and they will arrive late.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

PA is the Dems best state... why are we dooming?

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322550386373414913

This is a very positive sign for Biden's chances in Texas.

Why?

Not so much because of the impact of these particular votes, but because it suggests that the typical pattern of Hispanic turnout from previous elections is fairly likely to hold at least to a significant degree this year as well. That pattern is that Hispanic voters tend to turn out late, and to vote on election day. So a big turnout on the last day of early voting in these heavily Hispanic border counties suggests that the early vote in those counties is not merely cannibalization of the election day vote, and we should expect relatively high turnout to continue on election day among Hispanic voters. If that is the case among Hispanic voters in border counties, it is probably also the case to some degree or another in other less-Hispanic urban counties that nonetheless have large Hispanic populations like Harris, Dallas, and Bexar.

[Bootes Void]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far

"In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows."

You're right in a way but in PA's case, black voters may prefer to vote in person on Election Day. We'll see.

Umm in PA, the total votes are only 35% of 2016 votes and this not including election day votes and the higher turnout we will see

[swf541]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far

"In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows."

You're right in a way but in PA's case, black voters may prefer to vote in person on Election Day. We'll see.

Umm in PA, the total votes are only 35% of 2016 votes and this not including election day votes and the higher turnout we will see

Considering the nature of early voting in PA that's quite a good sign

Minority voters tend to vote late/day of for one so if trends  hold this is all quite good

[7,052,770]

AL and MS have no in person early voting and have pretty strict absentee rules (though AL seems stricter). Only if you’ll be absent on Election Day, if you’re sick, disabled, a senior, basically.

This plus here in MS you could give reasons such as work and being away from home on E-Day. I was thinking about doing that but I've ultimately decided to wait until election day.

My limited and anecdotal experience suggests that the Courthouse employees don't really care about their job and will probably give anyone an absentee ballot who asks for one without asking for an excuse and verifying it's a sufficient one.

[Inmate Trump]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far

"In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows."

You're right in a way but in PA's case, black voters may prefer to vote in person on Election Day. We'll see.

Umm in PA, the total votes are only 35% of 2016 votes and this not including election day votes and the higher turnout we will see

Considering the nature of early voting in PA that's quite a good sign

Minority voters tend to vote late/day of for one so if trends  hold this is all quite good

I’d think during a pandemic, the early voting rate would be higher.  But I don’t know anything really.

[swf541]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far

"In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows."

You're right in a way but in PA's case, black voters may prefer to vote in person on Election Day. We'll see.

Umm in PA, the total votes are only 35% of 2016 votes and this not including election day votes and the higher turnout we will see

Considering the nature of early voting in PA that's quite a good sign

Minority voters tend to vote late/day of for one so if trends  hold this is all quite good

I’d think during a pandemic, the early voting rate would be higher.  But I don’t know anything really.

People dont trust the USPS

[TheLaRocca]

913,000 voters have already voted in Miami-Dade.  That doesn't seem that bad.  Even though you could argue that Republicans are overrepresented, this should cut wait times on Election Day.  It looks like this will be the first election where Miami-Dade will have more than 1 million votes.

Voter registration in Dade is like 400K Republicans VS 600K Democrats.

That's 60-40

that's about what the early vote is!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Am I right to be worried about Pennsylvania?

Seems like turnout is extremely low and absentee ballots might not arrive by election day, giving Trump legroom to challenge them.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/biden-aides-see-warning-signs-in-black-latino-turnout-so-far

"In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows."

You're right in a way but in PA's case, black voters may prefer to vote in person on Election Day. We'll see.

Umm in PA, the total votes are only 35% of 2016 votes and this not including election day votes and the higher turnout we will see

Considering the nature of early voting in PA that's quite a good sign

Minority voters tend to vote late/day of for one so if trends  hold this is all quite good

I’d think during a pandemic, the early voting rate would be higher.  But I don’t know anything really.

This is our first year doing early voting, I think our early voting rate is actually pretty decent considering that fact.

[redjohn]

TX experts: In the event that Biden were winning TX (or TX became extremely close), wouldn't these be the turnout #s you'd expect?

It seems like everything, both turnout and polling in TX, is pointing to a Biden win. Is anything not going right for Democrats in TX yet?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

TX experts: In the event that Biden were winning TX (or TX became extremely close), wouldn't these be the turnout #s you'd expect?

It seems like everything, both turnout and polling in TX, is pointing to a Biden win. Is anything not going right for Democrats in TX yet?

The only real “negative” sign I see is that Montgomery, Comal, and Guadalupe are also exceeding 2016 already, but at the end of the day, they will be dwarfed by the big blue counties in terms of raw gains. You also have to consider that those red suburban counties I just listed are also trending blue, even if not as quickly as the other burbs or urban centers.

I do think this points to a Biden win here, but I don’t think it’s guaranteed by any means. I think Biden’s odds here are about 75%.

[The Mikado]

TX experts: In the event that Biden were winning TX (or TX became extremely close), wouldn't these be the turnout #s you'd expect?

It seems like everything, both turnout and polling in TX, is pointing to a Biden win. Is anything not going right for Democrats in TX yet?

I'm not quite as bullish as TrendsAreReal, but I'd agree that what we're seeing is what we would see in the "Biden wins TX" scenario. None of the signs we've seen are inconsistent with that result.

None of it rules out the, say, "Trump wins TX by 1.5%" scenario either. I DO think anyone expecting, like, "Trump wins TX by 5 or more" is basically out of luck.

[psychprofessor]

Texas about to be ground zero for disenfranchisement:

Mark Joseph Stern
@mjs_DC
·
15m
Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

TX experts: In the event that Biden were winning TX (or TX became extremely close), wouldn't these be the turnout #s you'd expect?

It seems like everything, both turnout and polling in TX, is pointing to a Biden win. Is anything not going right for Democrats in TX yet?

I'm not quite as bullish as TrendsAreReal, but I'd agree that what we're seeing is what we would see in the "Biden wins TX" scenario. None of the signs we've seen are inconsistent with that result.

None of it rules out the, say, "Trump wins TX by 1.5%" scenario either. I DO think anyone expecting, like, "Trump wins TX by 5 or more" is basically out of luck.

That’s fair. Wasserman thinks it’s a given that Biden is ahead in the early vote. The only remaining questions are 1) by how much (and we’ll get a good indication of that early on Tuesday night if Biden is expanding on Beto’s margins in the metros) and 2) can we get enough of our base counties out on Election Day to try and mitigate the damage that will be done when the rurals vote predominantly on EDay? Democrats still have a lot of remaining voters they can get out in their places like Travis, Webb, Hidalgo, El Paso, Harris, Bexar and Cameron to counteract a Trump surge on Tuesday.

[Tender Branson]

What’s „curb-side voting“ ?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Texas about to be ground zero for disenfranchisement:

Mark Joseph Stern
@mjs_DC
·
15m
Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming.

Republicans hate America

[The Mikado]

What’s „curb-side voting“ ?

A drive through, like a fast food restaurant, where your cars are in line and you eventually pull up to vote, vote, and go home without ever leaving your car. Harris County isn't the ONLY county to do it, but it's the only large one.

[Tender Branson]

What’s „curb-side voting“ ?

A drive through, like a fast food restaurant, where your cars are in line and you eventually pull up to vote, vote, and go home without ever leaving your car. Harris County isn't the ONLY county to do it, but it's the only large one.

Is there a full election commission present, consisting of D+R+I commission members ?

How is this administered ?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Texas about to be ground zero for disenfranchisement:

Mark Joseph Stern
@mjs_DC
·
15m
Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming.

We will never live this down if this happens

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

God help us all!

[psychprofessor]

Texas about to be ground zero for disenfranchisement:

Mark Joseph Stern
@mjs_DC
·
15m
Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out 100,000 ballots in Harris County cast through curbside voting. They drew Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan Republican judges in the entire federal judiciary. This is alarming.

We will never live this down if this happens

This is going all the way to SCOTUS unfortunately. This judge will throw them out, guaranteed.