2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[xavier110]

So they mailed out 20k+ ballots with defective bar codes? Lol

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/cbsdfw/status/1321143375760949256

They figured out Bagel's "lie about being disabled" scheme.

"Duplicating" ballots? Geez, this is guaranteed to be a litigation subject if Texas is close.

Despite the strict rules, there was a big increase in mail-in voting this year, so hard to be sure whether these votes would lean D or R.

[GP270watch]

Why are American elections such a joke?

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/cbsdfw/status/1321143375760949256

They figured out Bagel's "lie about being disabled" scheme.

"Duplicating" ballots? Geez, this is guaranteed to be a litigation subject if Texas is close.

This is standard practice in most elections.

If a ballot reader rejects a ballot (say ink spilled everywhere on the area of one race), usually there is a bipartisan board that evaluates the ballot and rules on how the person intended to vote. Then they re-do the ballot with that selection marked off.

For example, in AZ:

Bipartisan boards of elections workers review ballots with crossed-out mistakes to see if they can determine this intent. A law passed earlier this year now allows employees to perform the adjudication process electronically.

[Ljube]

According to Ralston's model, if everything stays the same and as expected in Nevada, Biden will win by 6 points.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/cbsdfw/status/1321143375760949256

They figured out Bagel's "lie about being disabled" scheme.

"Duplicating" ballots? Geez, this is guaranteed to be a litigation subject if Texas is close.

This is standard practice in most elections.

If a ballot reader rejects a ballot (say ink spilled everywhere on the area of one race), usually there is a bipartisan board that evaluates the ballot and rules on how the person intended to vote. Then they re-do the ballot with that selection marked off.

I agree, but we're normally talking about tens of ballots. At 22,000 ballots, there will be litigation over whether the original ballots need to be reviewed (with greater public scrutiny) for consistency with the duplicated ballots.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/cbsdfw/status/1321143375760949256

They figured out Bagel's "lie about being disabled" scheme.

"Duplicating" ballots? Geez, this is guaranteed to be a litigation subject if Texas is close.

This is standard practice in most elections.

If a ballot reader rejects a ballot (say ink spilled everywhere on the area of one race), usually there is a bipartisan board that evaluates the ballot and rules on how the person intended to vote. Then they re-do the ballot with that selection marked off.

I agree, but we're normally talking about tens of ballots. At 22,000 ballots, there will be litigation over whether the original ballots need to be reviewed for consistency with the duplicated ballots.

That's fair. Hopefully no state or local races in that area are decided by 20k votes!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Day 14 of early voting in Texas (October 26)

(In-person + VBM)  (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)

GREATER HOUSTON
HARRIS COUNTY               1,149,047    46.3%    2016:   87.6%    2018:   95.1%
FORT BEND COUNTY            262,281    54.4%   2016: 100.1%   2018: 102.7%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY       189,261    51.1%    2016:   92.5%    2018:   99.6%
GALVESTON COUNTY           116,275    50.9%    2016:   94.6%   2018: 102.3%

DALLAS-FORT WORTH
DALLAS COUNTY                  632,961    45.3%    2016:    83.4%   2018:     87.0%
TARRANT COUNTY               572,833    47.2%     2016:   85.7%   2018:     91.2%
COLLIN COUNTY                  372,403    57.4%    2016: 103.0%   2018: 104.6%
DENTON COUNTY                314,069     55.6%    2016:  105.2%   2018:   106.2%

SAN ANTONIO
BEXAR COUNTY                   542,660     45.6%    2016:   92.0%   2018:    98.7%

GREATER AUSTIN
TRAVIS COUNTY                  448,419     52.4%    2016:   95.7%   2018:   92.6%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY        215,460     57.2%    2016: 106.1%   2018: 103.5%
HAYS COUNTY                       78,953     51.7%    2016: 109.4%   2018:    99.0%

EL PASO
EL PASO COUNTY                178,004     36.4%    2016:   83.2%    2018:   87.4%

SOUTH TEXAS
HIDALGO COUNTY              147,866     37.8%    2016:   85.3%    2018:   97.4%
NUECES COUNTY                  90,253     42.6%    2016:   86.5%    2018:   96.0%
CAMERON COUNTY               76,595     35.0%    2016:   83.2%    2018:   98.3%

To add to this, Webb County (Laredo) finally posted, and they added 2.5k yesterday! That’s exactly what they need to do every day to hit my goal of 50k for them by Friday. They sit at 40k now, and they only cast 49k in all 2018 and 57k in 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why are American elections such a joke?

https://www.gop.com

[Storr]

Why are American elections such a joke?

To be fair states like CA, WA, and CO that have experience with all/heavily vote by-mail elections have had basically no issues.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Why are American elections such a joke?

To be fair states like CA, WA, and CO that have experience with all/heavily vote by-mail elections have had basically no issues.

Yup, I live in WA and I've easily voted in every single election, including local elections.  I've also helped countless friends get registered to vote and pushed them into voting.  If every state was like WA we'd have 80% turnout in presidential years and 60-70% turnout in off-year elections.  Once you're signed up you get spammed with official mail every election so you always know an election is coming.  Registration takes 90 seconds.  Verifying that your vote was counted takes 30 seconds.  If there's an issue (I had a signature match problem once) you get e-mails and phone calls about it.

My only complaint is that the ballot guidebook doesn't always include every line item on the ballot, so I spend my time hunting around for the pro/con arguments and endorsements for some ballot measure I've never heard of, only to find they're not there.

We also have completely pointless "advisory" votes on the ballot that just clutter it up.  But that's not a big deal.

[wbrocks67]

According to Ralston's model, if everything stays the same and as expected in Nevada, Biden will win by 6 points.

I trust Ralston, but NV is going to be wonky. It's not apples to apples. We're getting constant new updates of "live" votes with the early vote in person. But Dems are going hard on mail and the mail updates seem inconsistent from day to day (i.e. this day there is more mail delivered, etc.) So small or large updates could either be red herrings.

[pantsaregood]

According to Ralston's model, if everything stays the same and as expected in Nevada, Biden will win by 6 points.

I trust Ralston, but NV is going to be wonky. It's not apples to apples. We're getting constant new updates of "live" votes with the early vote in person. But Dems are going hard on mail and the mail updates seem inconsistent from day to day (i.e. this day there is more mail delivered, etc.) So small or large updates could either be red herrings.

It isn't time to panic about Nevada yet. That's later tonight.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Tuesday 5 PM Update:, 184,989 votes have been cast on Tuesday.

This includes 141,982 in-person votes and 43,007 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,111,512 in-person & 1,048,295 by mail, for a grand total of 3,159,807 (75.86% of 2016 total vote).

[Adam Griffin]

Top 10 States, % of 2016 Turnout
TX: 86.9
HI: 86.8
GA: 75.9*
MT: 75.4
NM: 74.4
NC: 71.5
AZ: 68.3
VT: 67.4
FL: 67.1
WA: 67.0

*As of 5 PM ET today; not all states have been updated

[Dr. Arch]

Wow, TX

[soundchaser]

Texas is going to pass 100% of 2016 turnout before November 3rd. That in and of itself should be celebrated.

[wbrocks67]

PA #s should be big tomorrow. Today was the last day to "early vote in person" and the lines were huge in Philly + the burbs. The line at City Hall in Center City Philadelphia around 4:45pm was literally like 250-300 people deep.

[MikeIrvine]

Texas is going to pass 100% of 2016 turnout before November 3rd. That in and of itself should be celebrated.

Possible. Early in person vote here ends on the 30th

[Farmlands]

So let's assume (HUGE assumption) that Rs gain ~40-50k per day through the rest of the week. That would mean Ds still end up with roughly a 50-100k vote lead in registration, right?


That doesn't seem bad for Ds, but also it's worth pointing out that indications are ED voting will be more R-skewed than in prior years due to more Ds voting early / by mail than in most years compared to Rs. So whereas Trump won ED voting by ~375k in 2016, he will probably win it by more this year.

 People are throwing out a lot of incorrect Florida numbers, please stop. All this info is available on the Florida SOS elections website.

 In 2016 Clinton had a 96k lead by party id(Democrats), but after the election we could figure out she actually won the early voting by around 250k but Trump had a huge election day turnout of around 360k and won the state by 112,911.

 2020 is different because the voting methods have switched. Some of the mail in ballots won't be counted. Many mail in ballots are still yet to show up and be counted. Democrats will probably not get blown out in the weekend so you can't assume anything.

 For Trump there are a lot of traditional GOP voters who only vote on election day because that's the only way they've ever voted. Pandemic or not that's not gonna change. There is still a lot of GOP vote to come.

 The variables are if Biden is doing even better in the early vote than Clinton and if he can withstand a surge from Trump by winning more No Party Affiliation voters. The variables for Trump are increased Republican voter registration and many signs on the ground that Miami Cubans are embracing him more than 2016.

 Florida is a fight like always.

Thank you for this post. In the middle of all the noise, sometimes it becomes difficult to discern the truth. Anyone claiming to know for sure how Florida is going to be a landslide for either side, "be very scared Dems/Reps", is just talking out of their behind.

[wbrocks67]

Georgia, Tuesday 5 PM Update:, 184,989 votes have been cast on Tuesday.

This includes 141,982 in-person votes and 43,007 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,111,512 in-person & 1,048,295 by mail, for a grand total of 3,159,807 (75.86% of 2016 total vote).

GA still getting lost in the noise. What is happening there is major.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Democratic turnout now at 53.2% of registered Democrats.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Florida Democratic turnout now at 53.2% of registered Democrats.

So they have all but hit there 2016 EV registration today with a week to go. 👍

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Democratic turnout now at 53.2% of registered Democrats.

So they have all but hit there 2016 EV registration today with a week to go. 👍

Yeah.  If they can continue at their ~3% a day pace that would be utterly remarkable. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

Florida Democratic turnout now at 53.2% of registered Democrats.

So they have all but hit there 2016 EV registration today with a week to go. 👍

Yeah.  If they can continue at their ~3% a day pace that would be utterly remarkable. 

Honestly it comes down to if ED turnout is severely pro-Trump but I’m having my doubts that it is going to be as lopsided as cw has it right now