2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Storr]

Honestly if there is a 100 million votes before election day then 150 million votes total may be too conservative. Its possible we may see up to 160 million and maybe 165 million at this point

*crosses my fingers that my only hot/silly/meme/insane take so far this election (>170 million turnout) turns out to be on the money*

[Non Swing Voter]

What's up with Pennsylvania reporting?  are they still this seriously behind?  That article that was posted a week ago here had more current numbers than PA's official tally for the Philly suburbs.

[politics_king]

It's only a good thing for the Dems I believe if theses early voting trends continue. I plan on doing it tomorrow or Thursday, we already know Biden is taking California but we have some important ballot measures in LA.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Any numbers on North Carolina?

[Gass3268]

Madison, WI is over 100,000 votes, including today’s update they are up to 102,000.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1321277744177709059
Madison is now at 54% turnout.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1321286387921014787?s=20

87.37% of absentee ballots have been returned

[Dr. Arch]

Madison, WI is over 100,000 votes, including today’s update they are up to 102,000.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1321277744177709059
Madison is now at 54% turnout.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1321286387921014787?s=20
87.37% of absentee ballots have been returned

WOW

[The Other Castro]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1321260800636575751

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any numbers on North Carolina?

Seconding that. n1240's updates have become a staple of my day and I haven't seen one today.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321295614370582529

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1321292648209125378

[philly09]

71 Million have voted.

[Non Swing Voter]

71 Million have voted.

Yeah but what's going on with your state and it's lack of reporting? 

It's the most important state and they are way behind in reporting their ballot returns.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

When you take all this into account, you can see the optimistic case for Trump.  There's much lower turnout so far this year among 18-29 and 30-39 voters, and much higher turnout among 65+.  New voters skew more male.

That said, the main good signal for Trump is weaker youth turnout, and one of Biden's biggest advantages over Clinton is decimating the age gap.  Seniors actually favor Biden this year.  And that may be reflected in the polls of people who have already voted.

1) You're comparing partial EV data for one election to total vote for another
2) Young voters in GA disproportionately vote on Election Day
3) There has never been a prominent statewide election in GA where EV was younger than ED
4) >500k seniors automatically received mail ballots this year because they voted in the primary - something that was never done before

Old people love to vote ASAP by mail. Young people almost always wait until election day, or wait until the last minute to return their mail ballot or vote early in person.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321318768434245633

Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.

[soundchaser]

“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321318768434245633

Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.

This might be why:

https://twitter.com/geoffrbennett/status/1321042528502689793?s=21

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1321318768434245633

Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.

This might be why:

https://twitter.com/geoffrbennett/status/1321042528502689793?s=21

That postmaster dude needs to be locked up.

[Gass3268]

“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

He's also talking about Democrats not getting their traditional lead by the end of the in person early voting period (3 days), when now people have until next Tuesday to get their mail ballots "postmarked" and they'll still be counted. He's thinking too much based on prior years and not the situation at hand.

[Non Swing Voter]

When you take the entire context of what Republicans are doing it's breathtaking:

1) slow down the mail (DeJerk)

2) don't let ballots be counted after the election even if postmarked by the election, giving the senders no clarity on when the deadline is to mail out (e.g., Wisconsin)

3) try to limit ballot drop boxes as much as possible (e.g., Texas)

4) try to send out ballots as late as possible (e.g., Miami)

[LimoLiberal]

“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

He's also talking about Democrats not getting their traditional lead by the end of the in person early voting period (3 days), when now people have until next Tuesday to get their mail ballots "postmarked" and they'll still be counted. He's thinking too much based on prior years and not the situation at hand.

This is still a bit worrying tho...

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

Until the morrow...

[Horus]

“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

He's also talking about Democrats not getting their traditional lead by the end of the in person early voting period (3 days), when now people have until next Tuesday to get their mail ballots "postmarked" and they'll still be counted. He's thinking too much based on prior years and not the situation at hand.

This is still a bit worrying tho...

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

Until the morrow...

That doesn't add up...

But BRTD told me there wouldn't be any issues with VBM and I shouldn't be a doomer 🙄

[Gass3268]

“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

He's also talking about Democrats not getting their traditional lead by the end of the in person early voting period (3 days), when now people have until next Tuesday to get their mail ballots "postmarked" and they'll still be counted. He's thinking too much based on prior years and not the situation at hand.

This is still a bit worrying tho...

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

Until the morrow...

Why do they need to meet that metric by the end of the early voting period when they have until Tuesday? He's imposing an outdated and arbitrary deadline that no longer makes sense.

[Non Swing Voter]

California retook the lead.  Here are the top 10 so far:

CA: 7.9m
TX: 7.8m
FL: 6.4m
NC: 3.4m
GA: 3m
WA: 2.6m
NJ: 2.5m
IL: 2.5m
OH: 2.3m
MI: 2.3m

[LimoLiberal]

“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

He's also talking about Democrats not getting their traditional lead by the end of the in person early voting period (3 days), when now people have until next Tuesday to get their mail ballots "postmarked" and they'll still be counted. He's thinking too much based on prior years and not the situation at hand.

This is still a bit worrying tho...

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

Until the morrow...

Why do they need to meet that metric by the end of the early voting period when they have until Tuesday? He's imposing an outdated and arbitrary deadline that no longer makes sense.

How many votes are Democrats adding daily in Clark/NV as a whole through VBM?

[Non Swing Voter]

“Pending mail count” seems to be the key phrase there.

He's also talking about Democrats not getting their traditional lead by the end of the in person early voting period (3 days), when now people have until next Tuesday to get their mail ballots "postmarked" and they'll still be counted. He's thinking too much based on prior years and not the situation at hand.

This is still a bit worrying tho...

To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark -- they are not on track to get either with three days left.

That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.

Until the morrow...

Why do they need to meet that metric by the end of the early voting period when they have until Tuesday? He's imposing an outdated and arbitrary deadline that no longer makes sense.

Maybe he's assuming that that their lead will go down with more time and not up?