2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1321262673170960385

VBM ballots are counted before election day ballots in Florida. What the hell is this bozo talking about?

Overseas Military Absentee Ballots?   

*Grabs Coat and Hat and exits stage right*

[Non Swing Voter]

I think danumbersguy is the guy responsible for the map everyone used to post of Florida.  See below:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

he hasn't updated it in forever though.  Wish he'd spend more time updating the map and less time with bad hot takes.

[philly09]

I think danumbersguy is the guy responsible for the map everyone used to post of Florida.  See below:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

he hasn't updated it in forever though.  Wish he'd spend more time updating the map and less time with bad hot takes.

He has updated, but since Sunday you have to donate $15 to his PayPal to view it.

His Youtube vids are free though.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think danumbersguy is the guy responsible for the map everyone used to post of Florida.  See below:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

he hasn't updated it in forever though.  Wish he'd spend more time updating the map and less time with bad hot takes.

He has updated, but since Sunday you have to donate $15 to his PayPal to view it.

His Youtube vids are free though.

Oh, hell no.  They were convenient to look at but I'd rather just go here for free up to date info in chart form:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1321231442664443907

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1321231442664443907

Were things this promising in the 2016 early vote? I don’t remember.

[Umengus]

I think danumbersguy is the guy responsible for the map everyone used to post of Florida.  See below:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

he hasn't updated it in forever though.  Wish he'd spend more time updating the map and less time with bad hot takes.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

Better.

[Tender Branson]

OR ballot return statistics (until Oct. 26, full day returns):

2020:

1,364,044

2016:

566,334

Oct. 26 this year corresponds to Oct. 30 in 2016.

---

About 1 million ballots in 2016 were recorded as received in the last 3 days (Nov. 6-8).

Let's see how this works out in the coming week ...

Was it possible in 2016 that ballots came in a day after the election (Nov. 8 vs. Nov. 7) ?

476.000 ballots came in one day after election day in 2016 ...

[NOVA Green]

How is the mail delayed in NV? Isn't it just going to Vegas and back?

Multiple issues going on simultaneously conflated:

1.) I will start with a brief story of my personal experience working in the private sector for quite a few years in the Mail Room at a Large Corporate Facility way back in the 1990s.

    A.) Republicans have for decades been attempting to abolish and privatize the United States Postal
         Service.

    B.) This strategic goal was never originally focused on mail-in-ballots, but rather to slash the Union
         Pension benefits, and somehow lower the "cost burden" as part of some crazy "Free Market"
         economic nutzoid argument from the 1980s and the days of Ronald Reagan.

    C.) The dramatic decline in actual mail volumes caused by the loss of revenue from "direct mail"
         (Junk Mail) advertisements at 3rd Class Postage Rates, and shifts in Corporate America and
         Individual Citizens towards email vs regular mail, dramatically accelerated the collapse of the
         economic model of the USPS.

    D.) These trends combined, essentially caused a dramatic reduction in USPS staffing and
          employment levels over the decades as "higher cost" older workers reached retirement levels,
          without any "New Hires" or replacements in sight.

     2.) As you correctly noted, these trends have become increasingly accelerated in recent Years,
         under an incompetent Swamp Monster, who is essentially following the goal of privatizing the
         United States Postal Service.

         A.) Election manipulations are a secondary consideration to people like these, and ultimately
              cast doubt on the integrity of all of US Postmasters, who are simply trying to do more with
              less.

         B.) It is absolutely insane that it should take (3) days for a 1st Class letter to go from one place
             in Las Vegas to another place, when we used to pride ourselves that a 1st Class letter could
             go from New York City to Arcata California in (3) days.

         C.) When I lived in Germany, I marveled at how it might take a Week for a letter to go from
              one side of the Country to another and take a week for 3x the postage cost of letters in
             America, where literally you could drive from SW Germany to Leipzig in less than (10) Hours.

3.) This is National disgrace, and although it might seem that this is all about "stealing the vote", the reality is that their plan is to privatize the United States Postal Service, bust the Unions, and somehow the "Free Markets Will Provide".

Thatcher started it hardcore, Reagan continued it.... Gut the Unions up and down the line, bring austerity to the workers and profits to the rich.... They have been gunning for the Postal Service and Social Security for decades, no joke... no lies...

[Adam Griffin]

So Georgia's EV momentum might get clipped at the tail end.

Tropical Storm Zeta is forecast to pass through the state on Thursday morning. It appears it'll be mostly confined to the northern third of the state, but this is being forecast a more serious issue than the seemingly half-dozen tropical storm rain fronts we've had this year.

Winds of 30-40 mph (with higher gusts) and heavy rain across most of far North GA is being projected. The metro will get rain and some wind, but currently not as much in either respect. Nevertheless, if there are any outdoor lines, heavy winds or other issues, early voting may dry up in a lot of the state tomorrow. Fortunately it appears to be fast moving and may be more or less gone by tomorrow afternoon.

[Ljube]

Divine intervention to save Trump?

[Gustaf]

I think danumbersguy is the guy responsible for the map everyone used to post of Florida.  See below:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

he hasn't updated it in forever though.  Wish he'd spend more time updating the map and less time with bad hot takes.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

Better.

So this says that Trump has an advantage if the share of Democrats voting early in person minus the share of Republicans voting early in person is not substantially larger than the share of Democrats voting early by any means in 2016 minus the share of Republicans voting early by any means in 2016 because of the Democratic advantage with mail in ballots.

What hot garbage. Unsurprising you'd like it though.

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1321231442664443907

Were things this promising in the 2016 early vote? I don’t remember.

No because at the time many people kept pointing out that Hillary and the Dems were underperforming in a lot of places compared to obama in 2012

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1321231442664443907

Were things this promising in the 2016 early vote? I don’t remember.

No because at the time many people kept pointing out that Hillary and the Dems were underperforming in a lot of places compared to obama in 2012

I remember Lawrence O'Donnell making a big deal out of Hillary's early vote numbers in Florida. He thought she had it in the bag.

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1321231442664443907

Were things this promising in the 2016 early vote? I don’t remember.

No because at the time many people kept pointing out that Hillary and the Dems were underperforming in a lot of places compared to obama in 2012

I remember Lawrence O'Donnell making a big deal out of Hillary's early vote numbers in Florida. He thought she had it in the bag.

Lawrence O'Donnell didnt know what he the heck he was talking about lol

At the time I remember seeing reports that Hillary was doing worse than Obama did in may areas of the county. A lot of Dems dismissed those reports because they thought that there was still no way that Trump would ever be elected President of the united states

boy were they wrong on that one....

[TopShelfGoal]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1321378210144227330

[wbrocks67]

The Ralston stuff seems odd to me, especially since he literally says "pending mail count" - so yeah, uh, it's not surprising that Dems lost ground in Washoe and Clark in *in person early voting* since the majority of Dems are... mailing in the votes... and you're doing an analysis .... *without* the mail count that will likely help Dems?

Like I said before too, it's not an apples to apples comparison either. If the mail is delayed, or one day is a bigger count than the rest, that will easily make things look better or worse. If today was a slow mail day and not as many ballots processed, then obviously it's going to look bad next to the live daily updates from early in person where votes are being processed *that day* compared to god knows whenever the mail decides to move for the mail in ballots.

Like let's say the mail is backed up and for 3 days in a row, they don't process a whole ton of ballots. Well of course Reps are going to look great for those 3 days since they are voting in person!

I trust Ralston, but this all seems like important context that he's willfully ignoring...

Also: is this a dumb question or is Ralston not even taking account that NPAs will likely go more for Biden this year than Clinton in 2016?

[DaleCooper]

I think Ralston is more saying that he might not have the data necessary to call Nevada for Biden before election day, not so much that it's a tossup or anything.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1321378210144227330

So yeah, it really appears it just depends on what ballots are getting processed. For all we know there is a ton of Dem ballots out there just waiting to be processed b/c of mail delays...

[n1240]

NC 10/27, day 12 early in-person vote:

Dem 61395 (30.1%)
Rep 78437 (38.5%)
Una 63842 (31.3%)
Total 203674

compared to day 12 in 2016

Dem 88695 (39.2%)
Rep 78099 (34.5%)
Una 59446 (26.3%)
Total 226240

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1037903 (37.0%)
Rep 961435 (34.3%)
Una 799897 (28.6%)
Total 2799235

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1432590 (39.4%)
Rep 1122985 (31.1%)
Una 1068317 (29.6%)
Total 3614892

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 911767 (43.3%)
Rep 666472 (31.6%)
Una 529042 (25.1%)

Similar trend as last three weekdays, D/R split being roughly 30/38 among early in-person voters and total amount of single day voters going down a bit. Unaffiliated voters are also consistently making up more than 30% of single day vote, and a considerably higher number of unaffiliated voters have voted early compared to 2016 now (total early vote is 13% higher than 2016 final early vote total, unaffiliated vote is 27% higher). D vs R raw gap is now smaller than 2016 final total (301k now vs 304k final in 2016), but overall total is also 42k higher.

[wbrocks67]

NC 10/27, day 12 early in-person vote:

Dem 61395 (30.1%)
Rep 78437 (38.5%)
Una 63842 (31.3%)
Total 203674

compared to day 12 in 2016

Dem 88695 (39.2%)
Rep 78099 (34.5%)
Una 59446 (26.3%)
Total 226240

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1037903 (37.0%)
Rep 961435 (34.3%)
Una 799897 (28.6%)
Total 2799235

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1432590 (39.4%)
Rep 1122985 (31.1%)
Una 1068317 (29.6%)
Total 3614892

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 911767 (43.3%)
Rep 666472 (31.6%)
Una 529042 (25.1%)

Similar trend as last three weekdays, D/R split being roughly 30/38 among early in-person voters and total amount of single day voters going down a bit. Unaffiliated voters are also consistently making up more than 30% of single day vote, and a considerably higher number of unaffiliated voters have voted early compared to 2016 now (total early vote is 13% higher than 2016 final early vote total, unaffiliated vote is 27% higher). D vs R raw gap is now smaller than 2016 final total (301k now vs 304k final in 2016), but overall total is also 42k higher.

What was the final EV total in 2016 again?

[n1240]

NC 10/27, day 12 early in-person vote:

Dem 61395 (30.1%)
Rep 78437 (38.5%)
Una 63842 (31.3%)
Total 203674

compared to day 12 in 2016

Dem 88695 (39.2%)
Rep 78099 (34.5%)
Una 59446 (26.3%)
Total 226240

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 1037903 (37.0%)
Rep 961435 (34.3%)
Una 799897 (28.6%)
Total 2799235

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1432590 (39.4%)
Rep 1122985 (31.1%)
Una 1068317 (29.6%)
Total 3614892

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 911767 (43.3%)
Rep 666472 (31.6%)
Una 529042 (25.1%)

Similar trend as last three weekdays, D/R split being roughly 30/38 among early in-person voters and total amount of single day voters going down a bit. Unaffiliated voters are also consistently making up more than 30% of single day vote, and a considerably higher number of unaffiliated voters have voted early compared to 2016 now (total early vote is 13% higher than 2016 final early vote total, unaffiliated vote is 27% higher). D vs R raw gap is now smaller than 2016 final total (301k now vs 304k final in 2016), but overall total is also 42k higher.

What was the final EV total in 2016 again?

Dem 1327487 (41.6%)
Rep 1023651 (32.1%)
Una 839455 (26.3%)
Total 3190593

[wbrocks67]

So total EV in 2016 was 3.19 million and Dem lead was +304k. Current EV total is 3.61 million (400K more and growing) and Dem lead is +310k. That seems pretty damn good to me.

[philly09]

CNN basically gave it away that Hillary was toast in N.C. in 2016.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html

[Ljube]

So total EV in 2016 was 3.19 million and Dem lead was +304k. Current EV total is 3.61 million (400K more and growing) and Dem lead is +310k. That seems pretty damn good to me.

Early vote is definitely better for the Dems than in 2016.
I don't know if that is enough, and I don't think anybody knows that.