2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321081239483359233?s=21

[ExSky]

This may not e a realignment year completely, but it’s certainly a realignment for Texas. The voter turnout increase is stunning. Gonna be a whole new state.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321088886907482120?s=21 Better start for the GOP than yesterday.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This may not e a realignment year completely, but it’s certainly a realignment for Texas. The voter turnout increase is stunning. Gonna be a whole new state.

Yup, the raw increases we're going to see (and are already seeing) in Democratic base counties PLUS Dem-trending counties is just going to be way too heavy for Trump and Republicans to keep up. Travis is likely to finish around 530k BEFORE Election Day (a 45k+ improvement on the 2018 record). Harris will be flirting with 1.4 million and most of those new voters will be blue. Hays will skyrocket to around 100k before Election Day as well, with most new voters being blue. The only real difference they can make with increasing raw turnout is in places like Comal, Guadalupe, Montgomery, Galveston, and Brazoria, and even those places are lightly trending blue.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321042229838909441

I found this Newsweek article

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tweets-can-i-change-my-vote-election-1542364

It says New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Mississippi (and maybe others?) have a way to do it.

In Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona you cannot.

So basically he's admitting he's far behind in the locked in vote?

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Republicans catching up, but Dems need to keep head down and get out the vote.
Today Florida EV will surpass the 6,607,004 total EVs in 2016.....  so, after accounting for a number of new registrants, the 'election day' impact will be minimized as cannibalization takes affect later in the week.

Dems 50.6% (+2.4)
Reps  46.1% (+3.5)
NPAs  34.1%  (+2.4)




Palm Beach, Pinellas and many Mid-Size Counties have already achieve 2016 EV Turnout Levels.  Also, I found the county level Total Election (All Dem votes) Turnout Levels and now have added those reference lines to the charts.

The board bedwetting on Florida is insane.  Democrats are over 50% turnout among REGISTERED voters and even if you do a horserace comparison they're still well ahead of Republicans. 

Thanks for the updated charts!

[Holmes]

One thing I think worth just noting about Florida is since there were a lot of Dixiecrats switching over to Republicans since 2016, the Dems voting now are more reliable Biden votes than they were Clinton votes 4 years ago. It could make a small difference.

[Non Swing Voter]

The thing to remember about the lower turnout among Dems in Orange and Miami is that they started the early vote process late.  Not sure why Orange did but in Miami it was by design because of the GOP mayor. 

It's no wonder that Dems are sending lots of surrogates to Orlando and Miami now.  Honestly this isn't so bad, they have two metro areas to focus on in the final days whereas Trump has to boost turnout everywhere in the state.

[Non Swing Voter]

One thing I think worth just noting about Florida is since there were a lot of Dixiecrats switching over to Republicans since 2016, the Dems voting now are more reliable Biden votes than they were Clinton votes 4 years ago. It could make a small difference.

Yeah same for PA.  The Dem numbers in absentee ballots there are probably more reflective of real voters.

[T0rM3nTeD]

66.666M votes

[Ljube]

66.666M votes

This is a turning point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

66.666M votes

This is a turning point.

Absolutely beastly turnout.

[Panda Express]

With a week before the actual election, more people have voted so far than the total number of people who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

[roxas11]

66.666M votes

Numbers like this is why I'm having such a hard time believing that Trump has any chance at all of actually winning this race.

[indietraveler]

At this point it's not if early voting in Texas exceeds total 2016 turnout, it's by how much.

[Non Swing Voter]

Regarding Florida early voting it says:

"Early voting is required in any election that contains a state or federal office race. The early voting period must start at least on the 10th day before the election and end on the 3rd day before the election. In addition, supervisors of elections have the option to offer more early voting on the 15th, 14th, 13th, 12th, 11th, or 2nd day before an election."

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/for-voters/voting/early-voting/

So there's what?  5 days of in person early voting left at most?  So it's highly unlikely the GOP catches up on pre-election day votes (not that this is the correct metric to follow but writing this for the bedwetters).  Even if Republicans gain each of those 5 days, Democratic ballots will come in the other 2 days so Dems should have a lead on those days if everything stays the same.

[ExSky]

Blue avatar gloating the last few days about Florida was particularly comical because it’s clearly not enough to catch the net lead the Dems have, and because it’s going to result in a far lower Election  day surge they were all expecting.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

At this point it's not if early voting in Texas exceeds total 2016 turnout, it's by how much.

Sometime on Saturday, I'm going to make a post about how the final EV votes would translate to a statewide result if you used the 2018 Senate percents in each county. Then I'll try and extrapolate the number of new voters in each county by applying *trends* to the new voters, utilizing the shift between 2016-2018. For example, in such an analysis, the new voters in previously red places like Collin and Denton would be overwhelmingly Dem.

[Non Swing Voter]

Blue avatar gloating the last few days about Florida was particularly comical because it’s clearly not enough to catch the net lead the Dems have, and because it’s going to result in a far lower Election  day surge they were all expecting.

Yeah and Dems probably don't need to have an electorate share advantage to win statewide in Florida given NPA voters and how they are likely to lean.  I am not seeing the data pointing to a GOP win right now.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1321132790541418503

[Donerail]

Regarding Florida early voting it says:

"Early voting is required in any election that contains a state or federal office race. The early voting period must start at least on the 10th day before the election and end on the 3rd day before the election. In addition, supervisors of elections have the option to offer more early voting on the 15th, 14th, 13th, 12th, 11th, or 2nd day before an election."

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/for-voters/voting/early-voting/

So there's what?  5 days of in person early voting left at most?  So it's highly unlikely the GOP catches up on pre-election day votes (not that this is the correct metric to follow but writing this for the bedwetters).  Even if Republicans gain each of those 5 days, Democratic ballots will come in the other 2 days so Dems should have a lead on those days if everything stays the same.

There's five days (including today) left in Republican counties and six days left in Democratic counties — blacks vote on the Sunday before the election, which is why the state makes that day optional.

[mijan]

Iowa early voting stats updated.
Dems are ahead by 136484 votes
Total 783310 people have voted early, which is 50% of 2016 turnout.

IA-1 D leads R by 104,228-57,695  , D+ 46533
IA-2 D leads R by 105,290-58,198 , D+ 47092
IA-3 D leads R by 107,207-61,558, D+ 45649
IA-4 R leads D by  72,132-69292, R+2840
 
IA state
D 386,017
R 249,583


In Iowa 930317 people have requested absentee ballots.
445,632 Dems have requested absentee ballots.
297,057 Reps have requested absentee ballots.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

[Gass3268]

Steve Schale's blog post on Florida if anyone is interested

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1321125538849763330?s=20

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321135704190177282?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321135725060988928?s=21

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321135704190177282?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1321135725060988928?s=21

So let's assume (HUGE assumption) that Rs gain ~40-50k per day through the rest of the week. That would mean Ds still end up with roughly a 50-100k vote lead in registration, right?

In 2016 Ds had a ~50k deficit but won the EV by ~250k. So if they're at a 50-100k lead, they'd probably be ahead by more like 400-500k in actual votes heading into ED voting, right?

That doesn't seem bad for Ds, but also it's worth pointing out that indications are ED voting will be more R-skewed than in prior years due to more Ds voting early / by mail than in most years compared to Rs. So whereas Trump won ED voting by ~375k in 2016, he will probably win it by more this year.

Overall Florida seems very toss-up / tilt Rish based on these numbers, which kind of just confirms most prior assumptions. It'll probably be 2012-close either way, and in a similar vein it probably will not impact the final outcome of the election.