2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/debliss/status/1320857579275329538

Could be bad reporting from the Texas Elections site, which I've been noticing quite a bit when doing my daily updates.

3 days ago, when I was tracking Texas turnout, they had Medina & Scurry counties at 72% and 91% turnout respectively. Turns out that either the state or the counties were double-counting voters.

When they fixed the problem that day, DeWitt saw their turnout double and vault to the highest turnout in the state. Panola wasn't even in the top 10 at that point. It seems their turnout also doubled since I made the list

[Adam Griffin]

Could be bad reporting from the Texas Elections site, which I've been noticing quite a bit when doing my daily updates.

3 days ago, when I was tracking Texas turnout, they had Medina & Scurry counties at 72% and 91% turnout respectively. Turns out that either the state or the counties were double-counting voters.

When they fixed the problem that day, DeWitt saw their turnout double and vault to the highest turnout in the state. Panola wasn't even in the top 10 at that point. It seems their turnout also doubled since I made the list

I'm wondering if it's a classic De[CapitalLetter]/Mc/San/St error: in spreadsheets and datasets, sometimes the "Mc" counties get placed before "Ma" (and sometimes after); ditto for instances like DeKalb vs Davidson; San Antonio vs Sabine; Saint/St Louis vs Sacajawea.

If so, then it'd be likely that multiple counties beginning with the same letter would be off as well (though the remaining numbers might be close/realistic enough that an error wouldn't be obvious).

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320890876554629120

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320946707660722176

[Non Swing Voter]

California just passed Texas for the most votes = 7.4 million!

[NOVA Green]

California just passed Texas for the most votes = 7.4 million!

California Uber Alles.... Left Coast rules!!!

[Tender Branson]

California just passed Texas for the most votes = 7.4 million!

California Uber Alles.... Left Coast rules!!!

CA has 10 million people more than TX, no big deal.

[Tender Branson]

I think several states will still manage to see hour-long lines on election day, despite having 80% of the total vote already in ...

Even (South) Africa has better election organisation.

[BlueSwan]

I am very sceptical with regards to what one can deduce from early voting, but what is the overall picture here? From what I can gather, the numbers don't look as encouraging for Biden as one would like, especially given that republicans are expected to outnumber democrats significantly on election day turnout. What gives?

[Adam Griffin]

I am very sceptical with regards to what one can deduce from early voting, but what is the overall picture here? From what I can gather, the numbers don't look as encouraging for Biden as one would like, especially given that republicans are expected to outnumber democrats significantly on election day turnout. What gives?

National share of EV in 2016 was 33%. Unless you expect turnout to be at or above 200 million, the EV is already more impactful right now than it was in 2016 after all EV was cast. Even if you assume 160 million turnout, we're already above 40%.

It really just comes down to whether or not you believe Democrats have cannibalized their vote enough in EV that it'll give the GOP insane enough margins on Election Day to render this all irrelevant.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think several states will still manage to see hour-long lines on election day, despite having 80% of the total vote already in ...

Even (South) Africa has better election organisation.

The heavily Trump counties will as their people aren't voting now.  Which is dumb and risky considering there might be a poll worker shortage. 

[philly09]

Democrats down to a 299k lead in Florida, though NPAs likely push it over 300k

[cvparty]

I am very sceptical with regards to what one can deduce from early voting, but what is the overall picture here? From what I can gather, the numbers don't look as encouraging for Biden as one would like, especially given that republicans are expected to outnumber democrats significantly on election day turnout. What gives?

it’s possible that republicans are cannibalizing their own numbers by voting early, which would reduce their upside on election day (it might not be as lopsided as initially expected). also, a high turnout election would suggest high numbers both for democrats and republicans; the main reason behind biden’s lead is his winning over a significant number of republican voters while keeping most democratic voters—this crossover voting wouldn’t be reflected in the registration/ID numbers

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1320966744987426816

[NOVA Green]

Okay... now that I've been off work for an hour or so, time to provide my daily Oregon EV update:

OREGON- 10/26/20 AM UPDATE (Day 6 of Full Reports)

Oregon numbers usually jump dramatically after the Weekend, plus a lotta folks might be trying to get them in early enough this year for some weird reason so that their ballot gets counted.

CUM TOT Ballots Received: 1,188,824   (59.4% of 2016 TOTAL PRES).     +13.7% Daily Jump
                                                         (40.3% of 2020 TOTAL RV)

Before provide the Daily Update, here are the links to my previous daily updates in this thread, for anyone who might be interested in tracking.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7670571#msg7670571

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7674522#msg7674522

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7678893#msg7678893

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7682160#msg7682160

Again, I will try to avoid cluttering the thread in too much detail with County level coverage, but rather focus primarily on the top-line numbers and route some of the county-level granularity elsewhere, and perhaps occasionally call out interesting trends in certain places.

10/26/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART BY PARTY REG:



1.) REG DEMs now leading PUBs by +265k Raw Votes vs the HRC > Trump +220k DEM Raw Vote FINAL Margin.

2.) NAV / 3rd Party Voters are starting to expand their lead over RAW PUB TV Margins (This will continue to increase the closer we get to the election)...

Granted we have no real idea how all of these folks will vote, but I would not assume these are good numbers for Republicans considering that between October '16 and EV in '20 we see the following as a direct result of Oregon AVR through the DMV:

DEMS: + 73.6k Voters
PUBS: + +46,1k Voters
Misc:   +261.9k Voters

10/26/20 AM OR RAW CUMULATIVE VOTE CHART % BY PARTY REG:



1.) DEM Cumulative Raw Vote % are decreasing (as anticipated) and PUB Cumulative Raw Vote % is trickling up, and REG MISC have now jumped to 26% of the Raw Vote %.

2.) These spreads will likely narrow a bit, especially with what will likely continue to be a surge of MISC Party voters as we move into the last Week of the Election.

10/26/20 AM Update: Total Cumulative % Turnout by Partisan Registration:



1.) Wow--- I was kinda figuring PUBs might be able to catch up a bit by the REG DEM vs REG PUB TO Gap is just crazy.... we are an all VBM State, so what is taking registered Republicans so much time in getting their ballots back?

2.) In case anybody asks, lets check on how many votes are out in OR by Partisan Registration...

Honestly this should be a Dashboard type thing for all of y'all actually following swing states.

It's not just a count-up, it's also a count-down (I digress)



1.) So a bit of a silver lining for Republicans in Oregon that they have almost as many uncounted ballots as Democrats remaining... but look at the Tsunami of NAV / 3rd Party.

2.) Turnout levels of Non-Affiliated Voters will be key in 2020, assuming both campaigns can mobilize base voters.

Now let's look at a massive Weekend Dump of Daily votes from 10/23/20 AM reporting to 10/26/AM reporting:

Of the 273.3k New votes added DEMs gain 33k votes over PUBs.



If we look at the giant daily % numbers it doesn't appear to be much more favorable to Republicans:



This is just the data, so maybe Oregon Republicans just got more stuff going on their lives, less decided about various down-ballot elections, but this is just where we are at.

NAV / 3rd Party Voters in OR will determine the extent of the Statewide Sweep...

[NOVA Green]

So, since there has been an unusual amount of interest in Montana on Atlas this year, I thought it might be interesting to take a deeper dive into the Early Voting numbers by County.

Montana does not have voter registration by party, so we can't really data mine the EV numbers in that manner.

As I have noted elsewhere, MT does have same day voter registration, so these numbers will fluctuate on a daily basis.

To approach the EV TO numbers, I thought it might be most useful to color code counties based upon areas where DEMs will need to perform well to remain competitive statewide, and areas where the Republicans are strong.

For purposes of this exercise, I used the 2008 GE-PRES numbers for coding purposes, since it was a very close PRES election in MT, as well as recent polling indicating that Montana is relatively close this Year, and Biden National polling numbers showing something likely meeting or exceeding Obama '08 margins.

I recognize that there will be some variations, and that US-SEN, MT-GOV, and MT-AL results might not mirror GE PRES breakdowns, but at least it is a starting point.

I have attempted to use Atlas style shading to represent rough level of strength.

I have also "flagged" counties with extremely above/below average % of ballots requested / received, as well as total % of "current" RV ballots returned.

So let's roll the Table by Counties to see what the results so far show:









So, where to start with all this?

1.) 54.5% of all requested ballots to date have been returned and 47.6% of registered voters to date have returned ballots.

2.) The % of ballots requested and returned metric is skewed a bit at the Statewide level because of extremely high numbers from a few larger population counties: Yellowstone (Billings) and Lewis & Clark (Helena).

Additionally, heavily Democratic Missoula County is punching above average requested & returned, as well as "Ancestral Democratic" Silver Bow County (Butte).

3.) We see significant under-performance in requested & returned ballots in a ton of rural counties in MT, including both heavily Democratic Counties (Mainly heavily Native American), and Republican counties scattered throughout the State.

Flathead County ballot return rates should be concerning for Republicans, since it not only represents 10% of Statewide RVs (As of today), but additionally skews much more older demographically (55+ Years) in an age bracket where Biden appears to dramatically improving compared to Trump-Clinton '16.

Gallatin County (Bozeman) ballot return rates concern me a bit, since this a place where Democrats need to perform well to win statewide, with growing trending and swings in the DEMs direction, make this a critical target.

Now it could just be that DEMs are turning out in much greater numbers in Gallatin and PUBs are mulling their choices, but just like in business I would happily exchange greater raw votes (profit) over margins, if it benefited the "bottom line".

4.) RV (as of today) returned numbers appear relatively similar to the % of ballots returned numbers, with Yellowstone and Lewis and Clark Counties punching significantly above their weight.

Additionally, Ancestral DEM Silver Bow and it's twin county next door Deer Lodge are doing quite well.

Numbers out of Lake County (North of Missoula), appear to be positive for DEMs thus far, assuming that Seniors up around the lake swing hard against Trump.

5.) Gallatin County continues to disappoint for the DEMs.

6.) Missoula County running a bit ahead, so seems like a positive for DEMs there, but DEMs need not only massive turnout but also massive margins up there.

7.) Flathead County again stands out. Something weird going on there, possibly connected with the Senior Vote and the PRES Election, or possibly locals still making up their minds about the MT-SEN, MT-GOV, and MT-AL elections.

8.) Ravalli County *appears* to be a bright spot for Republicans (4.5% of MT RVs), but again we get into the whole Senior Vote, so margins matter there when it comes to shrinking net vote PUB margins.

9.) Many of the Rural Counties continue to disappoint for both DEMs and PUBs, with predictable under-performance among Native American Counties thus far, as well as PUBs not really getting their votes out yet in many overwhelmingly Republican rurals.

10.) Yellowstone County (Billings) will likely be the decisive place to decide the 2020 elections in Montana.

DEMs don't necessarily need to *win* here, but rather keep the margins reasonable and flip Billings.

Here is a link to a summary that I made about Billings on the "Largest City in Each State to Vote for Trump in 2020" thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7521327#msg7521327

To Close with, I will link to a song about Montana from the late and great Merle Haggard: "Big City".

I won't fill up the space with a direct link, but Seniors in Montana may well decide how this State votes for all of those juicy elections on the ballot in 2020.

"Big City cut me loose and set me free"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkrQMfL9MKg

Thought it might be interesting to review the latest EV numbers from Montana, since we now have a Monday update...

1.) As I have previously mentioned, Montana is a same-day voter registration state and does not have registered partisan affiliation.

2.) Over the Weekend we saw Total Registered Voters in MT go from 739,755 to 741,783  (+2,028 New Registered Voters).

3.) Naturally we must assume that these voters Registered to Vote in order to commit the citizenship duty of voting.

It is entirely likely we will see MT RV numbers increase to +10-15k New Voters by Election Day.

The latest batch of new voters appear to be disproportionately represented from Democratic Counties:







4.) Although this might seem miniscule numbers, as part of my old mantra consistently repeats: "Elections are won and lost at the margins".

5.) If MT is close in any of the key elections from US-PRES, US-SEN, MT-GOV, MT-AL, this could well make the difference between victory and defeat in all of these elections.

6.) MT numbers of "ballot sent" appears to be barely increasing from 10/24 > 10/26, adding only a measly additional + ~280 Votes.  (Plausible--- lagging indicator on a Friday and requests likely won't pop up until the next day or so).

7.) Request Ballots returned on the other hand starts to speak to a truer story...

Between 10/24/20 MT reporting and 10/26 MT reporting, we jump from 54.0% Ballots requested returned to 60.3% of Ballots requested returned.

8.) Additionally if we look at the % of requested ballots returned, MT goes from 54.5% on 10/24 to 60.3%% on 10/26.

9.) % of RV Returns jump from 47.6% to 52.6% over the Weekend.

Lagging indicators or leading indicators???...

10.) Honestly Montana is a bit difficult to decipher, so maybe some of y'all can fill in the blanks:

I'm just the guy running the numbers and sometimes wonder WTF to I spend so many hours on such random activities...









11.) Opinions anyone?   I'm still convinced any DEM win in MT is likely gonna come down to Yellowstone County one way or another....

[Ljube]

I think several states will still manage to see hour-long lines on election day, despite having 80% of the total vote already in ...

Even (South) Africa has better election organisation.

The heavily Trump counties will as their people aren't voting now.  Which is dumb and risky considering there might be a poll worker shortage. 

There are fewer people in these counties, so I guess they should be able to handle the high turnout on Election Day. Plus there will be poll workers there, because the people there don't believe in the pandemic.

I am wondering what will happen in the cities on Election Day.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320890876554629120

This is a key point that I think a lot of people are missing. Voter registration numbers and even voting in past primaries is a strongly lagging indicator of how people vote. I'd be astounded if the past voting history of early voters in a place like Hays County is indicative of anything other than how that group might have voted 4 years ago. Likewise, I really doubt a landslide of registered Democrats will mean much of anything in the Florida panhandle. Our best bet is probably going to be tracking the polls that have asked the "already voted" question, averaging those out by state, matching them against the early voting numbers, and then working back from there to gauge what crossover support looks like instead of trying to induce how someone is voting by what kinds of elections they have voted in in the past. 

[n1240]

NC 10/26, day 11 early in-person vote:

Dem 65330 (30.8%)
Rep 82641 (38.9%)
Una 64323 (30.3%)
Total 212294

compared to day 11 in 2016

Dem 91127 (40.2%)
Rep 77740 (34.3%)
Una 57547 (25.4%)
Total 226414

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 976508 (37.6%)
Rep 882998 (34.0%)
Una 736055 (28.4%)
Total 2595561

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1356540 (39.9%)
Rep 1041160 (30.7%)
Una 999173 (29.4%)
Total 3396873

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 823072 (43.8%)
Rep 588373 (31.3%)
Una 469596 (25.0%)
Total 1881041

GOP gets back to the pace they were hitting on Friday in early vote, to chip away at the Dem lead a bit, which still remains substantial (314k raw ballot lead). Current overall total is also about 200k more ballots cast than 2016, and the Dem raw ballot lead is slightly higher than the final 2016 lead (Dems led by 304k ballots at the end of the 2016 early voting period).

[n1240]

The return rate for NC mail-in ballots is just 54% right now, significantly lower than Florida (where it's past 2/3) let alone other states where it's reaching 80%. Any idea why that is? And how much of a concern is that? Should we expect it to pick up soon, and where do you think it will end up on Election Day?

Not sure, I'll probably have to review old return rates in NC or maybe check if voters who requested a ballot changed their mind and decided to vote in-person instead. I think the rate of return should pick up a bit, as it has over the past week and speed up relatively closer to election day, at least based on my tracking of other elections. I don't think the current return rate is that concerning considering Dems are maintaining a decent overall lead, but it definitely could be better. 80% is still a baseline of what I'd expect, but I'll need to review things before I can make a better estimate.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321042229838909441

I found this Newsweek article

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tweets-can-i-change-my-vote-election-1542364

It says New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Mississippi (and maybe others?) have a way to do it.

In Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona you cannot.

[Ljube]

One more reason not to vote early (or at least, not too early) if you're not a partisan activist.

[indietraveler]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321042229838909441

I found this Newsweek article

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tweets-can-i-change-my-vote-election-1542364

It says New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Mississippi (and maybe others?) have a way to do it.

In Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona you cannot.

lol this reeks of desperation of someone who knows he's far behind. i can smell the stench from here.

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Republicans catching up, but Dems need to keep head down and get out the vote.
Today Florida EV will surpass the 6,607,004 total EVs in 2016.....  so, after accounting for a number of new registrants, the 'election day' impact will be minimized as cannibalization takes affect later in the week.

Dems 50.6% (+2.4)
Reps  46.1% (+3.5)
NPAs  34.1%  (+2.4)




Palm Beach, Pinellas and many Mid-Size Counties have already achieve 2016 EV Turnout Levels.  Also, I found the county level Total Election (All Dem votes) Turnout Levels and now have added those reference lines to the charts.

[redjohn]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321042229838909441

I found this Newsweek article

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tweets-can-i-change-my-vote-election-1542364

It says New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Mississippi (and maybe others?) have a way to do it.

In Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Arizona you cannot.

lol this reeks of desperation of someone who knows he's far behind. i can smell the stench from here.

He was saying this in rallies across WI in 2016. It's just another part of his personality; he thinks everyone loves him and that there must be thousands of people who voted for Biden who are going to change their vote to Trump. He's completely narcissistic and delusional.