2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321219558674436098?s=20

Some of these absentee file joins in different states that Nate is doing should be enough to show people how useless the TargetSmart data is.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Here's some ACTUAL numbers for Georgia that aren't TargetSmart bulls--t:

Total vote:  2.975M

White:  56.9% (60% in 2016)
Black:  28.3% (30% in 2016)
Hispanic:  2.3%
Asian:  2.4%
Unknown:  10%

Women:  55.4% (55%)
Men:  43% (45%)
Unknown:  1.5%

18-29:  11.4% (18%)
30-39:  11.7% (18%)
40-49:  15.0% (21%)
50-64:  30.2% (27%)
65+:  30.3% (16%)

2016 non-voters:  26.3%
2018 non-voters:  22.6%

Demographics of 2016 non-voters

White:  46%
Black:  27%
Hispanic:  3.9%
Asian:  4.6%

Female:  49.7%
Male:  44%
Unknown:  6%

18-29:  28.3%
30-39:  15.1%
40-46:  13.6%
50-64:  20.7%
65+:  16.3%



As a data point, Georgia had some of the most blatant demo gaps you'll ever see in 2016.
Trump %:
Men 60%
Women 43%
White 75%
Black 9%
Hispanic 27%
18-29 33%
30-44 44%
45-64 57%
65+ 67%

Final result was Trump 50.44, Clinton 45.35


When you take all this into account, you can see the optimistic case for Trump.  There's much lower turnout so far this year among 18-29 and 30-39 voters, and much higher turnout among 65+.  New voters skew more male.

That said, the main good signal for Trump is weaker youth turnout, and one of Biden's biggest advantages over Clinton is decimating the age gap.  Seniors actually favor Biden this year.  And that may be reflected in the polls of people who have already voted.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis County passes 2016 turnout!

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct27.pdf

They will pass the 2018 record tomorrow

#believethoseTRENDS

[Storr]

Travis County passes 2016 turnout!

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct27.pdf

They will pass the 2018 record tomorrow

#believethoseTRENDS

*grumbles about you beating me to posting it*

But seriously, that's awesome! Now all (I just looked it up, and evidently the census bureau has Bastrop and Caldwell counties in the "Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos MSA". So I'll go with: the three "main") metro Austin counties are >100% 2016 turnout. Thus, I agree. Everyone should believe those trends.

[Horus]

Here's some ACTUAL numbers for Georgia that aren't TargetSmart bulls--t:

Total vote:  2.975M

White:  56.9% (60% in 2016)
Black:  28.3% (30% in 2016)
Hispanic:  2.3%
Asian:  2.4%
Unknown:  10%

Women:  55.4% (55%)
Men:  43% (45%)
Unknown:  1.5%

18-29:  11.4% (18%)
30-39:  11.7% (18%)
40-49:  15.0% (21%)
50-64:  30.2% (27%)
65+:  30.3% (16%)

2016 non-voters:  26.3%
2018 non-voters:  22.6%

Demographics of 2016 non-voters

White:  46%
Black:  27%
Hispanic:  3.9%
Asian:  4.6%

Female:  49.7%
Male:  44%
Unknown:  6%

18-29:  28.3%
30-39:  15.1%
40-46:  13.6%
50-64:  20.7%
65+:  16.3%



As a data point, Georgia had some of the most blatant demo gaps you'll ever see in 2016.
Trump %:
Men 60%
Women 43%
White 75%
Black 9%
Hispanic 27%
18-29 33%
30-44 44%
45-64 57%
65+ 67%

Final result was Trump 50.44, Clinton 45.35


When you take all this into account, you can see the optimistic case for Trump.  There's much lower turnout so far this year among 18-29 and 30-39 voters, and much higher turnout among 65+.  New voters skew more male.

That said, the main good signal for Trump is weaker youth turnout, and one of Biden's biggest advantages over Clinton is decimating the age gap.  Seniors actually favor Biden this year.  And that may be reflected in the polls of people who have already voted.

Looking at this I see a repeat of Kemp vs. Abrams almost to the tenth of a percent.

Trump gains in North Georgia and the black belt will cancel out Biden's improvement in Gwinnett, Henry and Cobb, and ITP can't get much more Dem outside of Buckhead and West Paces Ferry so a very small dead cat bounce in places like East Atlanta for Trump too.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Tuesday Final:, 220,824 votes were cast on Tuesday. This was the highest-turnout day thus far.

This includes 167,262 in-person votes and 53,562 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 2,137,428 in-person & 1,058,214 by mail, for a grand total of 3,195,642 (76.72% of 2016 total vote).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Travis County passes 2016 turnout!

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct27.pdf

They will pass the 2018 record tomorrow

#believethoseTRENDS

Travis & Williamson Counties are now within 10% of 2016's total turnout percentage.

Greater Austin coming in strong this year!

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321219558674436098?s=20

Someone better at math than me explain the implications of this

[Adam Griffin]

When you take all this into account, you can see the optimistic case for Trump.  There's much lower turnout so far this year among 18-29 and 30-39 voters, and much higher turnout among 65+.  New voters skew more male.

That said, the main good signal for Trump is weaker youth turnout, and one of Biden's biggest advantages over Clinton is decimating the age gap.  Seniors actually favor Biden this year.  And that may be reflected in the polls of people who have already voted.

1) You're comparing partial EV data for one election to total vote for another
2) Young voters in GA disproportionately vote on Election Day
3) There has never been a prominent statewide election in GA where EV was younger than ED
4) >500k seniors automatically received mail ballots this year because they voted in the primary - something that was never done before

[ON Progressive]

Derek Ryan's turnout report for TX through Monday (so no votes from today in): https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/9411ad67-cc0e-4028-b4c6-5472ef16256a/Statewide_Report_Day_14.pdf

Last Voted in R Primary - 30.6% (-0.3 from yesterday)
Last Voted in D Primary - 26.6% (-0.6)
GE history/no primary history - 28.1% (+0.4)
No voting history - 14.9% (+0.6)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Derek Ryan's turnout report for TX through Monday (so no votes from today in): https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/9411ad67-cc0e-4028-b4c6-5472ef16256a/Statewide_Report_Day_14.pdf

Last Voted in R Primary - 30.6% (-0.3 from yesterday)
Last Voted in D Primary - 26.6% (-0.6)
GE history/no primary history - 28.1% (+0.4)
No voting history - 14.9% (+0.6)

I’m one of those “no voting history” voters!

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321219558674436098?s=20

Someone better at math than me explain the implications of this

Biden leads in GA by 6-7 (48.6-42.1) in the early vote according to those figures.

Throw in those who haven't voted as 40% of the final electorate (~5.1m votes) and Trump leads by 0.7 points.

[Non Swing Voter]

Texas gurus.  Even if Biden doesn't win Texas does anyone have an idea what this massive turnout means for down ballot races like US House and Texas House?

Are any Republicans toast or at least in danger if Biden does get up to 48 or 49% of the vote?

[GeneralMacArthur]

When you take all this into account, you can see the optimistic case for Trump.  There's much lower turnout so far this year among 18-29 and 30-39 voters, and much higher turnout among 65+.  New voters skew more male.

That said, the main good signal for Trump is weaker youth turnout, and one of Biden's biggest advantages over Clinton is decimating the age gap.  Seniors actually favor Biden this year.  And that may be reflected in the polls of people who have already voted.

1) You're comparing partial EV data for one election to total vote for another
2) Young voters in GA disproportionately vote on Election Day
3) There has never been a prominent statewide election in GA where EV was younger than ED
4) >500k seniors automatically received mail ballots this year because they voted in the primary - something that was never done before

All true.  2018 early vote numbers were:
Total EV 2.3M
18-29 168K (7.3%)
30-39 248K (10.7%)
40-49 352K (15.3%)
50-64 747K (32.4%)
65+ 782K (34%)
so we are in fact seeing an uptick in 18-29 turnout this year among early voters.  Of course, it's still apples to oranges.

Also, the Civiqs Biden +5 poll has Biden at -5 with both 50-64s and 65+s.  He's +19 with 18-34 and +13 with 35-49.  They also only have Biden at -1 among men though so take it with a grain of salt.

[JerryArkansas]

Texas gurus.  Even if Biden doesn't win Texas does anyone have an idea what this massive turnout means for down ballot races like US House and Texas House?

Are any Republicans toast or at least in danger if Biden does get up to 48 or 49% of the vote?

Theres a good chance the House flips even without a statewide win.  All the targeted districts are ones Biden will likely overperform in.

[Storr]

I'm bored so I decided to look it up, so here it is: more people have voted in Texas with one week left before the election than the entire population of state at the time of the 1950 Census.

7,711,194   vs. 7,803,590

1960 (9,579,677) will definitely be passed, being only ~610k more than 2016 turnout.

1970 seems very possible if turnout stays as high as it has been through election day: 11,196,730      

Edit: Meanwhile the total number of registered voters is only 30,000 less than Texas' total population at the 1990 Census!!! 16,986,510 vs 16,955,519

[Non Swing Voter]

Texas gurus.  Even if Biden doesn't win Texas does anyone have an idea what this massive turnout means for down ballot races like US House and Texas House?

Are any Republicans toast or at least in danger if Biden does get up to 48 or 49% of the vote?

Theres a good chance the House flips even without a statewide win.  All the targeted districts are ones Biden will likely overperform in.

That would be massive for redistricting.  What about Congressional seats.  Any in danger for Republicans?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Texas gurus.  Even if Biden doesn't win Texas does anyone have an idea what this massive turnout means for down ballot races like US House and Texas House?

Are any Republicans toast or at least in danger if Biden does get up to 48 or 49% of the vote?

Theres a good chance the House flips even without a statewide win.  All the targeted districts are ones Biden will likely overperform in.

That would be massive for redistricting.  What about Congressional seats.  Any in danger for Republicans?

Only like 10, give or take. 2, 3, 6, 10, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 31

[Non Swing Voter]

Texas gurus.  Even if Biden doesn't win Texas does anyone have an idea what this massive turnout means for down ballot races like US House and Texas House?

Are any Republicans toast or at least in danger if Biden does get up to 48 or 49% of the vote?

Theres a good chance the House flips even without a statewide win.  All the targeted districts are ones Biden will likely overperform in.

That would be massive for redistricting.  What about Congressional seats.  Any in danger for Republicans?

Only like 10, give or take. 2, 3, 6, 10, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 31

wow.  what are the most likely to flip?

[Storr]

Texas gurus.  Even if Biden doesn't win Texas does anyone have an idea what this massive turnout means for down ballot races like US House and Texas House?

Are any Republicans toast or at least in danger if Biden does get up to 48 or 49% of the vote?

Theres a good chance the House flips even without a statewide win.  All the targeted districts are ones Biden will likely overperform in.

That would be massive for redistricting.  What about Congressional seats.  Any in danger for Republicans?

Only like 10, give or take. 2, 3, 6, 10, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 31

Not to mention the three (!!!) new Congressional seats following reapportionment. I assume at least two of them will go to urban/suburban areas, since that's where most of the state's population growth has been.

[Benjamin Frank]

70 million now reported to have already voted, up from around 64 million yesterday.  This is a pace for 100 million to have voted before November 3.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Also, as the number of votes by mail gears down, the number of people voting in the advance polls gears up.

I would expect a very similar percentage as in the British Columbia election: 1/3 by mail, 1/3 in advance and 1/3 on election day, with about 150 million in total voting.

It should be noted for those who expect a large Trump lead in the early count, that advanced votes are also counted on election day, so just the mail in ballots won't be counted.  

Trump could very well lead out of these 100 million, but I wouldn't expect it to be an enormous margin in the electoral college.  This is all more the case since a disproportionate percentage of the mail in ballots will be from the states that are heavily or entirely vote by mail: Arizona, California, Oregon, Utah and Washington.

[tagimaucia]

Here's some ACTUAL numbers for Georgia that aren't TargetSmart bulls--t:

Total vote:  2.975M

White:  56.9% (60% in 2016)
Black:  28.3% (30% in 2016)
Hispanic:  2.3%
Asian:  2.4%
Unknown:  10%

Women:  55.4% (55%)
Men:  43% (45%)
Unknown:  1.5%

18-29:  11.4% (18%)
30-39:  11.7% (18%)
40-49:  15.0% (21%)
50-64:  30.2% (27%)
65+:  30.3% (16%)

2016 non-voters:  26.3%
2018 non-voters:  22.6%

Are the numbers in parentheses from exit polls?  Because if you're comparing actual voter file data to exit polls, I'm pretty sure that is an extreme apples-to-oranges comparison...

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/DavidEggert00/status/1321248076514865152

[walleye26]

Madison, WI is over 100,000 votes, including today’s update they are up to 102,000.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1321277744177709059
Madison is now at 54% turnout.

[Bootes Void]

Honestly if there is a 100 million votes before election day then 150 million votes total may be too conservative. Its possible we may see up to 160 million and maybe 165 million at this point