GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ While it's never 100% guaranteed, the simplest solution to minimize any and all kinds of political spam is to just vote early. Before the law changed, getting my mail ballot in early September and back by mid-September dramatically insulated me from texts, mailers and phone calls.

Some campaigns take a few days to filter daily EV records into their universes & certain campaign actions will have been queued up for days prior (not to mention in the case of mail specifically, it takes a few days for said mail to arrive once deployed) - which is why you'll probably continue to receive spam for a week or even two after voting. Really bad campaigns never integrate said data and continue wasting money on outreach even if the voter cast a ballot weeks ago.

Given the short EV window and the extended holiday disruption, it's probably worse than normal right now. This means even if you did vote as soon as possible, the window is just so short that one form of spam or another is going to keep arriving through Election Day. I returned my mail ballot ASAP and it wasn't even confirmed by the SoS until 11/28.

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

Rejecting fundamental parts of the English language to own the libs. Although, with Walker, it wouldn't entirely surprise me if he's sincerely forgotten what a pronoun is.

Apparently, he doesn't know what a noun is either.

[Gracile]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599844765398228997

[Oryxslayer]

Something to keep an eye on in addition to obviously suburban Atlanta is the micropolitan areas around places like Macon and Augusta. It's flown a bit under the radar, but Democrats have made serious inroads in the Republican suburbs of these cities, notably Houston County and Columbia County. Watching tomorrow to see if Warnock can make Houston County a single digit affair and if he can hit 40% in Columbia County.

Counties like this have been sneaking up on Republicans for awhile. There are 6 in particular worth keeping an eye on in the coming years - if not because they will flip, just for the potential shifts in them - that all play a certain role in housing newer suburban/exurban college-educated types in a given metro.

Only 525k people among them (with Houston & Columbia comprising around 60% & Fayette being most of the rest), but an 11-point D shift in 4 years isn't nothing (the rest of the state combined only shifted 5 points by comparison):

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7f160c19-d55e-467e-8550-e25c29a902ed

I can't speak to the rest, but important to note that the three largest of these counties have booming diverse suburbs. Warner Robins is both a military town and a suburb, and that latter identifier put the community demographically in the position to elect it's first African American mayor last year. Fayette has the obvious spillover from Atlanta that seems poised to give Warnock the topline result tomorrow. Majority-minority Grovetown in Columbia grew so fast in the last two decades that the suburb is now demographically spilling over into unincorporated territory.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

[Gracile]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

Given your voting history (specifically voting in a Democratic primary) they still probably see you as someone they could win over/could turn out for Warnock.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

How did Trump running impact your motivation to vote for Walker?

[Adam Griffin]

Something to keep an eye on in addition to obviously suburban Atlanta is the micropolitan areas around places like Macon and Augusta. It's flown a bit under the radar, but Democrats have made serious inroads in the Republican suburbs of these cities, notably Houston County and Columbia County. Watching tomorrow to see if Warnock can make Houston County a single digit affair and if he can hit 40% in Columbia County.

Counties like this have been sneaking up on Republicans for awhile. There are 6 in particular worth keeping an eye on in the coming years - if not because they will flip, just for the potential shifts in them - that all play a certain role in housing newer suburban/exurban college-educated types in a given metro.

Only 525k people among them (with Houston & Columbia comprising around 60% & Fayette being most of the rest), but an 11-point D shift in 4 years isn't nothing (the rest of the state combined only shifted 5 points by comparison):

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7f160c19-d55e-467e-8550-e25c29a902ed

I can't speak to the rest, but important to note that the three largest of these counties have booming diverse suburbs. Warner Robins is both a military town and a suburb, and that latter identifier put the community demographically in the position to elect it's first African American mayor last year. Fayette has the obvious spillover from Atlanta that seems poised to give Warnock the topline result tomorrow. Majority-minority Grovetown in Columbia grew so fast in the last two decades that the suburb is now demographically spilling over into unincorporated territory.

It's pretty incredible that those 6 combined (even taking out the smaller 3 doesn't change the overall swing; 11 points) have swung between 2016P & 2021RO only slightly less (0.8 points) than Paulding, Cherokee and Forsyth:

Fayette/Columbia/Houston: R+26.5 -> R+15.0
Paulding/Cherokee/Forsyth: R+47.1 -> R+34.8

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6b6c88e4-2262-4db5-86ef-076e2c3b5e00

[Adam Griffin]

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

Given your voting history (specifically voting in a Democratic primary) they still probably see you as someone they could win over/could turn out for Warnock.

Yeah, without knowing anything else (including 2018 GE vote), that combo screams "disaffected Republican who now votes for 'reasonable Democrats' because Trump poisoned their well".

EDIT: I actually read it wrong initially: thought it was a 2022 DEM primary vote. Well, not as ideal for turnout targeting, but given Warnock's inroads with voters with this kind of primary history, it's not too surprising.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

How did Trump running impact your motivation to vote for Walker?

Trump is getting crazier and crazier every day. He wants to suspend the constitution because he didn’t get elected. I think Walker is alright but he is a Trump loyalist hack.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

How did Trump running impact your motivation to vote for Walker?

Trump is getting crazier and crazier every day. He wants to suspend the constitution because he didn’t get elected. I think Walker is alright but he is a Trump loyalist hack.

And he wasn't a Trump loyalist hack before Trump announced he was running again?  Did you seriously think of Trump as sane before all of this?

[prag_prog]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

I am bit curios on why you voted for Walker considering you are a socialist or atleast that's what I am assuming 'S' in your avatar means

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

How did Trump running impact your motivation to vote for Walker?

Trump is getting crazier and crazier every day. He wants to suspend the constitution because he didn’t get elected. I think Walker is alright but he is a Trump loyalist hack.

And he wasn't a Trump loyalist hack before Trump announced he was running again?  Did you seriously think of Trump as sane before all of this?

I want Republicans in control of the house / Senate so we can at least have a chance of dealing with inflation, but without R’s holding the Senate, there is no point in voting for Walker. Trump contributed a decent amount to our current inflation (Biden more so, but I’m not giving Trump a pass) so I don’t trust him at all.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

How did Trump running impact your motivation to vote for Walker?

Trump is getting crazier and crazier every day. He wants to suspend the constitution because he didn’t get elected. I think Walker is alright but he is a Trump loyalist hack.

And he wasn't a Trump loyalist hack before Trump announced he was running again?  Did you seriously think of Trump as sane before all of this?

I want Republicans in control of the house / Senate so we can at least have a chance of dealing with inflation, but without R’s holding the Senate, there is no point in voting for Walker. Trump contributed a decent amount to our current inflation (Biden more so, but I’m not giving Trump a pass) so I don’t trust him at all.

What is the Republican plan to deal with inflation?

[Inmate Trump]

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

How did Trump running impact your motivation to vote for Walker?

Trump is getting crazier and crazier every day. He wants to suspend the constitution because he didn’t get elected. I think Walker is alright but he is a Trump loyalist hack.

And he wasn't a Trump loyalist hack before Trump announced he was running again?  Did you seriously think of Trump as sane before all of this?

I want Republicans in control of the house / Senate so we can at least have a chance of dealing with inflation, but without R’s holding the Senate, there is no point in voting for Walker. Trump contributed a decent amount to our current inflation (Biden more so, but I’m not giving Trump a pass) so I don’t trust him at all.

What is the Republican plan to deal with inflation?

Hunter Biden.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

SNIP
Houston County isn't really suburban, is it? I thought Warner Robins was basically its own separate mini-metro focused on Robins Air Force Base. The military focus is what has made it historically Republican. Of course, it should be trending D anyway similar to other air force-focused cities such as Colorado Springs.

Oconee County is another one to watch for this trend alongside Columbia County, though.

I grew up here and moved back last year. HOCO has historically been a suburban part of Macon-metro, but we’re starting to overtake Macon as the dominant area. It’s also trending left for similar reasons as counties like Cobb and Gwinnett.

Something to keep an eye on in addition to obviously suburban Atlanta is the micropolitan areas around places like Macon and Augusta. It's flown a bit under the radar, but Democrats have made serious inroads in the Republican suburbs of these cities, notably Houston County and Columbia County. Watching tomorrow to see if Warnock can make Houston County a single digit affair and if he can hit 40% in Columbia County.

Counties like this have been sneaking up on Republicans for awhile. There are 6 in particular worth keeping an eye on in the coming years - if not because they will flip, just for the potential shifts in them - that all play a certain role in housing newer suburban/exurban college-educated types in a given metro.

Only 525k people among them (with Houston & Columbia comprising around 60% & Fayette being most of the rest), but an 11-point D shift in 4 years isn't nothing (the rest of the state combined only shifted 5 points by comparison):

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7f160c19-d55e-467e-8550-e25c29a902ed

I can't speak to the rest, but important to note that the three largest of these counties have booming diverse suburbs. Warner Robins is both a military town and a suburb, and that latter identifier put the community demographically in the position to elect it's first African American mayor last year. Fayette has the obvious spillover from Atlanta that seems poised to give Warnock the topline result tomorrow. Majority-minority Grovetown in Columbia grew so fast in the last two decades that the suburb is now demographically spilling over into unincorporated territory.

It's pretty incredible that those 6 combined (even taking out the smaller 3 doesn't change the overall swing; 11 points) have swung between 2016P & 2021RO only slightly less (0.8 points) than Paulding, Cherokee and Forsyth:

Fayette/Columbia/Houston: R+26.5 -> R+15.0
Paulding/Cherokee/Forsyth: R+47.1 -> R+34.8

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6b6c88e4-2262-4db5-86ef-076e2c3b5e00

I’m keeping a close eye on how HoCo votes tomorrow and if it continues it’s leftward trend. I’m eyeing a run for the Board of Education in ‘26 or the City Council in ‘25.

Our election of the first black mayor in our city’s history last year was encouraging, but that was likely due more to the overwhelming unpopularity of the predecessor she beat and the corrupt air about him than her own skills.

[Devout Centrist]

If I get another fcking campaign text from Warnock’s campaign I swear to god.

10+ text messages in the past week… please stop fcking texting me to go vote for Warnock. There’s not even any reasons in any of these text messages.

Reply stop and opt out? Lol

You are extremely naive if you think that works... are you four years old? I’ve been responding stop and blocking every number and they keep coming. Warnock’s team doesn’t give a rats ass about what you want. My friend and his dad are getting spammed and neither are even eligible to vote.

It was me, Barry. I kept subscribing you to the Warnock Campaign’s texts even when you unsubscribed. Every time you told them to stop, I told them to opt you back in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

* Starts to count the number of pronouns in the quote, gives up *

"Why are certain unspecified people bringing pronouns in the military of this country? Pronouns?! What the heck is a pronoun. Herschel Walker is sick & tired of that pronoun stuff. Aren’t the people in this audience all sick & tired of that pronoun stuff? So why don’t Herschel Walker and the people who agree with Hershel Walker call this senator Former Senator? That’s the aforementioned senator's pronoun."

is what he should have said. Sick of these conservatives who don't practice what they preach.

[Spectator]

Worth noting that only 40% of the nearly 78,000 non-November voters are white. Walker probably has at least a 25% edge with these new voters, likely even more than that. That 25% margin would be around a 20,000 vote net gain.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

* Starts to count the number of pronouns in the quote, gives up *

"Why are certain unspecified people bringing pronouns in the military of this country? Pronouns?! What the heck is a pronoun. Herschel Walker is sick & tired of that pronoun stuff. Aren’t the people in this audience all sick & tired of that pronoun stuff? So why don’t Herschel Walker and the people who agree with him call this senator Former Senator? That’s the aforementioned senator's pronoun."

is what he should have said. Sick of these conservatives who don't practice what they preach.

You left a "him" in there, you woke liberal trash.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Worth noting that only 40% of the nearly 78,000 non-November voters are white. Walker probably has at least a 25% edge with these new voters, likely even more than that. That 25% margin would be around a 20,000 vote net gain.

You mean Warnock has a 25% edge, right?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Worth noting that only 40% of the nearly 78,000 non-November voters are white. Walker probably has at least a 25% edge with these new voters, likely even more than that. That 25% margin would be around a 20,000 vote net gain.

Do you mean Warnock?

[Spectator]

Worth noting that only 40% of the nearly 78,000 non-November voters are white. Walker probably has at least a 25% edge with these new voters, likely even more than that. That 25% margin would be around a 20,000 vote net gain.

You mean Warnock has a 25% edge, right?

Ye you're right. Two W names is tricky lol

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

* Starts to count the number of pronouns in the quote, gives up *

"Why are certain unspecified people bringing pronouns in the military of this country? Pronouns?! What the heck is a pronoun. Herschel Walker is sick & tired of that pronoun stuff. Aren’t the people in this audience all sick & tired of that pronoun stuff? So why don’t Herschel Walker and the people who agree with him call this senator Former Senator? That’s the aforementioned senator's pronoun."

is what he should have said. Sick of these conservatives who don't practice what they preach.

You left a "him" in there, you woke liberal trash.

Dang. Fixed now.