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LDP will not be running a candidate in Tokyo Gov election. Koike should easily cruise to a third term.

Smart decision.

They endorsed her last time, too.

*Possible* yes, but I would still place my bets on a Biden shift.

While it is fair that the CA/NY/FL theory leaves out Texas, CA+NY+FL by itself is still pretty significant and perhaps you could even add Illinois and New Jersey to that group.

I think the main way in which the divide grows is if educational polarization is basically the only driver of swings. This is because basically all the most educated states are safe/likely Biden at this point. By college educated % the most educated state that's not federally likely/safe blue are Utah and Pennsylvania at spots #14 and #15 respectively. The other main swing states are average or below average on educational attainment.

Reapportionment method: 1 seat given to each state by default. 385 assigned by population using a single divisor, with fractions being round down.
All districts within states will seek to have roughly equal numbers of Biden voters relative to other districts in the same state.

You should use the actual method used by the US House to be honest, I could do the calculations for you if you're interested.

LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph (changes since February):

SF 29 (-2)
DUP 21 (-3)
All 15 (+1)
UUP 11 (+1)
SDLP 8 (+1)
TUV 8 (+2)
Oth 4 (-)
Aontú 2 (-)
GP 1 (-)
SWP 1 (-)

Yeah we are you don't see Redban anywhere, he's a hack

I did (as someone who has turned into a semi-compulsive reader of Ballotpedia's "Population represented by state legislators" page in recent months). I just didn't think it was newsworthy.

I think more likely we could be in an anti incumbency era where incumbent presidents fail to win reelection. Keep in mind this was also the case from 1836-1896 when no incumbent outside Lincoln and Grant got reelected so its not like its unprecedent.

If Trump wins he obviously won’t be able to run again so that would mean we would go at least 12 years without a two term president since we would not have had a president with two consecutive terms.

Oh sure but his VP almost certainly would be the nominee (given how weak the gop bench is) and they probably would lose .

Keep in mind in that time period no incumbent VP was elected president either

Are...are we back?

Wow! Hopefully this is the start of a new positive trend.

I didn´t go to the protest.
I should had too, it has been very calmy, with various old cis women...
Hopefully I will go to the Pride Parade the next month.

TERFism is a mental pathology, I know that much.

Not sure, but TERF do are weird.